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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Monday (10/5)

Oct 5, 2020

Shortstop is very tough on this slate, but Marcus Semien one of the best options out there.

It was strange to have no baseball this weekend but luckily, we’re back to action here. This Monday slate is a bit disappointing though, with only two games on the ledger. Today actually marks the opening of the quarter-finals, with the four AL teams in action on this slate. While it does leave slim pickings, it’s certainly a fascinating one. With that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Gerrit Cole (NYY) @TB $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Lance McCullers (HOU) @OAK $7,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Cole is easily the best pitcher on the board and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • McCullers was stellar near the end of the season, posting a 0.00 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 rate over his final three starts.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Luke Voit (NYY) @TB $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Ji-Man Choi (TB) vs. NYY $3,000 ⭐⭐ High
  • Voit led the Majors with 22 homers and is easily one of the best plays out there against a left-hander.
  • This may surprise you but Choi is my favorite play on the Rays. The reason for that is because of his ownership against Cole, totaling a .667 AVG, .733 OBP, 1.667 SLG, and 2.400 OPS in 15 career at-bats against the Cy Young contender.
  • In terms of catchers, Gary Sanchez, Sean Murphy, and Kyle Higasgioka are easily the three-best options out there. Sanchez is my guy, getting the platoon advantage against Snell. Sanchez actually has a .481 OBP and five dingers in 27 plate appearances against Snell for his career.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) @TB $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Altuve (HOU) @OAK $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • LeMahieu is yet again an MVP candidate after winning the AL batting title and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • People have soured on Altuve and rightfully so but he’s always a solid play. We’re still talking about a guy who has an AVG north of .300 over the past six seasons while attaining am OPS above .800.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Bregman (HOU) @OAK $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jake Lamb (OAK) vs. HOU $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Bregman is one of my favorite per-dollar plays of the day and we’ll dig deeper into that later.
  • Lamb has been a different player since putting on the green and gold, generating an .882 OPS over his final 13 games played. He’s also much better when facing right0-handers.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Semien (OAK) vs. HOU $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Carlos Correa (HOU) @OAK $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • The shortstop position is very tough on this slate and that makes Semien one of the best options out there. We’re talking about a guy who has a .354 OBP and .840 OPS since the beginning of last season.
  • Correa is yet another Houston righty we like. He hit the home run to advance them to this round and he’s always produced in the postseason.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
George Springer (HOU) @OAK $5,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) @TB $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Robbie Grossman (OAK) vs. HOU $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
  • If we like all of the other Astros, we have to love Springer. What we really like is his recent form, amassing a .384 OBP and 1.060 OPS over his last 26 games played.
  • Stanton always crushes left-handers, to the tune of a .387 OBP, .623 SLG, and 1.010 OPS since 2018.
  • Grossman is way too cheap. Against right-handers this season, Robbie is generating a .357 OBP, .521 SLG, and .878 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Gerrit Cole, NYY ($8,600): It’s weird to see Cole below $10,000 and that makes him the best option by miles. Not only does he have the best K rate in the Majors since the beginning of last season, the Rays also own the second-worst strikeout rate in baseball. That’s bad news against a dude with a 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 11.6 K/9 rate this season. He actually has at least 10 Ks in two of three of his starts against them this year as well.
  • D.J. LeMahieu, NYY ($5,200): D.J. is well on his way to more MVP votes this season. Not only did he finish with a .364 AVG and 1.011 OPS, but LeMahieu also tallied a .452 OBP against lefties this season.
  • Alex Bregman, HOU ($4,500): It’s just weird to see Bregman priced this cheaply. We’re talking about a guy who has an OBP north of .350 and an OPS above .900 for his career.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Blake Snell, TB ($8,000): Snell has had a down year by his standards, and having to face the Yankees makes him an easy fade. In his two starts against them this year, he hasn’t surpassed 16 DraftKings points in either of them and you’d need that from an $8,000 pitcher.
  • Brandon Lowe, TB ($5,000): This one is simple. While Lowe has been awesome, we just can’t use a $5,000 player against the best pitcher on the slate.
  • Ramon Laureano, OAK ($4,000): Laureano had a down year and we really don’t trust him against a talented righty like McCullers. He hit just .213 this season and has been steadily falling down the A’s lineup.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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