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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Thursday (10/8)

Oct 8, 2020

As the playoffs surge on, the DFS player pool grows ever smaller. It’s been a pleasure to help you all out with your lineups this year. Keep an eye on the lineup cards as we still don’t have all of the starting pitchers locked in for today and good luck! Send me a message on Twitter (I’m @ty_burg) if you need any last-minute advice.

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Value Plays: Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Sixto Sanchez (MIA) vs. ATL $8,100 ⭐⭐ High
Jordan Montgomery (NYY) vs. TB $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Sanchez has a tough matchup today against an offense that ranked third in the league in wRC+ with 121. He’s a super talented young pitcher and still hits speed bumps from time to time, so he’s a high-risk play. They’ve also been hotter than that over the last 30 days. I won’t call him a value play today — he’s probably priced a little too high, but at this point, we still don’t know all of the starting pitchers for today. Sanchez has faced the Braves twice this year — in one, he shut them out for six innings; in the other, he gave up four runs in three innings. Despite all of my caveats, he has the talent to supersede his salary, but he remains a high-risk, high-reward play.

Montgomery comes in on the cheaper side for starting pitchers today. While he finished the season with an ERA over five, all of his peripherals showed that he had a fairly successful season. He kept his walks under 2 BB/9 while maintaining a FIP and xFIP under four. The Rays have had a pretty strong offense this season, but most teams that have made it this far in the playoffs have done so with, at the very least, an offense in the top third of the league. Montgomery will be going into this one with the full force of the Yankees’ home offense, which puts him in a great spot to net a win.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Freddie Freeman (ATL) @ MIA $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Travis d’Arnaud (ATL) @ MIA $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

Freeman comes a little cheaper than the other big names at first base, and the splits favor him in a big way. Against right-handed pitching, Freeman has a 216 wRC+ this season and will be facing righty Sanchez today.

d’Arnaud is the highest quality catcher on the slate today and, he’s riding a five-game hitting streak as well as a two-game home run streak. His price tag today is an absolute bargain. Not only is he cheaper than most of the other decent catchers, but he’s been swinging the hottest bat, too.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) vs. TB $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. OAK $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium

I hope you’re not sick of hearing how good the Yankees hitters are at home. LeMahieu has been an absolute beast for the pinstripes this year. When batting at home, he has an elite 256 wRC+, and although he fares slightly worse against right-handers, it’s not enough to warrant further discussion. This level of production for a sub-$5,000 price tag is hard to find.

Blame it on the short season, World Series fallout, age — Altuve hasn’t been himself this year. Because of that, he comes at a bit of a discount today as he faces off against right-hander Freddy Montas. The splits aren’t good, but Altuve has hit righties this year better than lefties. During this series, he’s 5-for-12 and ripped a solo home run during his last game. He’s also had two multi-hit games in this series.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Yandy Diaz (TB) @ NYY $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Diaz has been Steady-Eddie this year, as he’s batting over .300 and getting on base at a hefty .428 clip. While the power hasn’t been there for him, he’s still managed to be extremely productive. I think that he’s the safest sub-$4,000 play today. I’ll be using him in all of my rosters to free up some cash elsewhere — while the ceiling isn’t super high, the floor is high enough to ensure that this is a safe value pick.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Marcus Semien (OAK) @ HOU $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. OAK $4,000 ⭐⭐ High

There aren’t many hitters hotter in the postseason than Semien. He’s posted a 218 wRC+ and is riding a four-game streak of two hits per game. We’re not sure who he’ll be facing today, but I’m taking him in some of my lineups purely based on the hot bat. Plus, the price tag won’t hit your budget that hard.

Correa’s numbers favor him in this matchup — he’s managed only an 80 wRC+ this year at home. Against right-handers at home, that number dips slightly. However, if you don’t want to splurge for the big bats at this position, Correa could return some decent value, but he comes with some high risk. We know the talent is there, and across his career, he’s been excellent in the playoffs (maybe it’s the trash can effect, maybe not). So far in this series against Oakland, he’s 4-for-10 with two home runs and six RBIs.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
George Springer (HOU) vs. OAK $4,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) @ MIA $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) vs. TB $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

Springer has crushed the ball in this series versus Oakland — he’s 6-for-14 with two home runs. We’re not sure who he’ll be facing off against, but like Semien on the other side of the diamond, I like Springer for how he’s looked so far in the playoffs.

Ozuna has been one of the best players in the league this year during the regular season. Almost all of his splits are elite, no matter the situation. While his career playoff numbers are a stark contrast to what he’s done during the 2020 season, I think we’re seeing the true Ozuna now. During away games this year, Ozuna logged a 169 wRC+. His price today is an absolute bargain.

Speaking of swinging a hot bat, Stanton has been utterly ridiculous as of late. He’s hit at least one home run in five straight games (including a two-home run game). During that stretch, he’s logged no fewer than 14 FP in each game.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Mookie Betts (LAD) $5,300: Betts is on a five-game hitting streak, is one of the best bats in the game, and is a bargain today.
  • Luke Voit (NYY) $5,200: Voit has been the best power hitter in baseball when at home, and it’s not even close. His .477 ISO at home is .07 higher than the runner-up.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) $5,100: Acuna’s batting average this year hasn’t been the flashiest, but he contributes across the board and is bringing some swagger to these playoff games.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Brandon Lowe (TB) $5,100: While Lowe has had an incredibly productive season, he’s been cold as cold gets during the postseason.
  • Manny Machado (SD) $5,100: I’m going to pick on Machado for his career in the postseason. He hasn’t done anything to break out of that preconception so far this postseason.
  • Matt Olson (OAK) $4,700: Olsen hits for power, but he hasn’t done much else this year. I don’t think rolling the dice on a long ball is worth his price tag.

All advanced statistics sourced from FanGraphs.

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Tyler Burgess is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tyler, check out his archive and follow him @ty_burg.

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