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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (10/2)

Oct 2, 2020

If Goran Dragic is out like we expect, Kendrick Nunn becomes one of the best options on the board.

This is going to be one of my last NBA articles of the season. I’m sad that it’s coming to an end but it also means that we’re in the midst of the NBA Finals! Los Angeles was expected to cruise in this series and a beatdown in Game 1 is not a good sign for Miami. In any case, this should be a more interesting Game 2, so, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

View the top betting picks and player props for the NBA Finals at BettingPros >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Rajon Rondo (LAL) vs. MIA $6,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Alex Caruso (LAL) vs. MIA $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kendrick Nunn (MIA) vs. LAL $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Rondo has turned back the clock recently. averaging 28 DraftKings points per game since his return from injury three weeks ago.
  • Caruso is the talk of Twitter with his goofy game but he’s been a nice weapon recently. In fact, he’s averaging 20 DK points per game across his last eight fixures.
  • If Goran Dragic is out like we expect, Nunn becomes one of the best options on the board. He tallied 18 points, five rebounds, and two assists in Game 1 and is plenty capable of taking over for Dragic at PG. He’s one of the best values out there.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. LAL $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. LAL $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Danny Green (LAL) vs. MIA $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Butler is one of the best options of the day and we’ll discuss why later.
  • Herro has been a revelation in these playoffs and it’s why his price has risen to this number. The 20-year-old is now averaging over 29 DK points per game across his last 22 outings. He could be asked to do even more for this shorthanded Miami team.
  • Green has been terrible since the bubble started but he’s cemented as the Lakers starting shooting guard. He actually provided 11 points, four rebounds, two steals, and three blocks in Game 1, making him an interesting option.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. MIA $13,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Duncan Robinson (MIA) vs. LAL $5,800 ⭐⭐ High
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) vs. MIA $5,200 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • James is simply the best player of our generation and I’ll go over that more later.
  • Robinson is very inconsistent and is simply untrustworthy unless he’s knocking down his shots.
  • KCP ranks third on the Lakers with about 30 minutes a game and has a nice 15-point floor at this cheap price tag.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. MIA $12,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. LAL $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kyle Kuzma (LAL) vs. MIA $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Davis had another gem in Game 1 and has now scored at least 32 DraftKings points in all 16 playoff games he’s played. He’s easily the most reliable option on the board, averaging nearly 55 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Crowder is one of the best values out there, playing well over 30 minutes a game in the postseason. His floor is nice too, scoring at least 23 DK points in 12 of his last 14 games while averaging 27 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Kuzma is the apple of many fantasy owner’s eyes but he’s not as good as many people would have you believe.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. LAL $10,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Dwight Howard (LAL) vs. MIA $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kelly Olynyk (MIA) vs. LAL $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • While Adebayo is dealing with a shoulder issue and probably won’t play, he’s easily the best center option out there if he does. He’s averaging over 40 DK points per game in these playoffs and is the heart of this team.
  • Howard has been starting the last few games and can provide solid production in short minutes.
  • Olynyk stepped in for Adebayo on Wednesday and provided nearly 20 DK points in one of his best games of the postseason. If Bam is out, Olynyk is a fantastic value.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Anthony Davis, LAL ($12,200): We already discussed Davis’ floor in the earlier write-up and he’s simply out-matching Miami. That was evident when he collected 34 points, nine rebounds, five assists and three blocks in Game 1, making him the most dangerous player on this slate. If Bam is out, he should feast even more.
  • LeBron James, LAL ($13,000): LBJ did typical James’ things in Game 1, totaling 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists. He’s now averaging 28.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.9 blocks in his 51 NBA Finals games. Don’t fade this guy.
  • Jimmy Butler, MIA ($9,800): Butler is always a good option with his 40-point average but if Dragic and Adebayo are ruled out, he’ll likely be handling the ball on every possession. If you have that paired with the 40-plus minutes that we expect, look for Jimmy Buckets to have a monster night.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Goran Dragic, MIA ($7,000): I just can’t imagine that Dragic will be effective after that severe limp on Wednesday and one has to believe he won’t play here. Even if he does play, he won’t be as effective with his crafty-style of play being limited. Not to mention, the Lakers have the best defense in the NBA. Don’t forget about Andre Iguodala either. I didn’t have room for him in the SF write-up but he could play some point in the absence of Dragic.
  • Duncan Robinson, MIA ($5,800): Robinson went scoreless in Game 1, and that makes him really hard to trust against a stour Lakers defense. That’s actually the second time in his last four games that he hasn’t hit a shot and it’s even tougher when he fails to provide other statistics.
  • Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,400): Kuzma is just not the player that everyone thinks he is. We’re talking about a bench player who plays second-fiddle to LeBron, AD, and Rondo. That’s evident when you see that he hasn’t reached 28 DK points since the playoffs started, scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points in six-straight.

View the top betting picks and player props for the NBA Finals at BettingPros >>

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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