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DraftKings DFS NBA Strategy Advice: Friday (10/9)

Oct 9, 2020

LeBron has played over 50 NBA Finals games and is averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game in those outings.

This might end up being my final NBA article of the season. We have the Lakers entering this matchup with a 3-1 series lead, looking to close out the series. Closing out this game would make Los Angeles NBA Champions, giving LeBron James his fourth ring. It would be hard to imagine the Heat winning three-straight to capture the title but stranger things have happened. With that in mind, let’s get into this critical Game 5!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

View the top betting picks for the NBA Finals at BettingPros >>

Value Plays: Point Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. LAL $8,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Rajon Rondo (LAL) vs. MIA $6,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Kendrick Nunn (MIA) vs. LAL $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Dragic has missed the last two games because of a foot issue. There’s some thought that he may return here but we’d stray away with so many question marks.
  • Rondo has scored at least 20 DK points in every game since his return from injury, averaging 26 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Nunn is a great option if Dragic is out but is a must fade if Dragon does suit up.

Shooting Guard

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jimmy Butler (MIA) vs. LAL $10,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Tyler Herro (MIA) vs. LAL $9,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (LAL) vs. MIA $5,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Danny Green (LAL) vs. MIA $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Jimmy is rolling right now and we’ll talk more about that in the studs section.
  • Herro has been amazing throughout the bubble, averaging over 30 DK points per game. That’s why he has this salary but he also has to produce 30-plus to live up to this price tag.
  • KCP is third on the Lakers in minutes and continues to be undervalued below $6K.
  • Green is super volatile but if his shot is falling, he could be a great bargain too.

Small Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
LeBron James (LAL) vs. MIA $12,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Duncan Robinson (MIA) vs. LAL $7,000 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Andre Iguodala (MIA) vs. LAL $2,400 ⭐⭐ High
  • LeBron has played over 50 NBA Finals games and is averaging nearly 60 DraftKings points per game in those outings. We’ll discuss that more later.
  • Robinson is a streaky shooter and that makes him hard to trust.
  • Iggy has played at least 25 minutes in three of his last five games and he’d be a fantastic value if he does that again here.

Power Forward

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jae Crowder (MIA) vs. LAL $7,400 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Markieff Morris (LAL) vs. MIA $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐ High
Kelly Olynyk (MIA) vs. LAL $3,000 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Crowder is finally getting the price tag he deserves, playing nearly 35 minutes a game in the postseason.
  • Morris is another guy who could be huge if his shots are falling. If not, he’ll destroy your lineup.
  • Olynyk is one of the best plays out there if Bam is somehow limited again. If not, he likely won’t play more than 15 minutes, making him hard to trust.

Center

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Anthony Davis (LAL) vs. MIA $11,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Bam Adebayo (MIA) vs. LAL $9,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Dwight Howard (LAL) vs. MIA $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐ High
  • Davis is an easy pick and we’ll explain why in the next section.
  • Adebayo returned from injury in Game 4 but looked like a shell of himself. If he is right, he’s a great value below $10K though.
  • Howard is super inconsistent but he may be asked to play more in order to guard Adebayo. If he plays 15-20 minutes, Howard could be a huge value.

3 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • LeBron James, LAL ($12,400): James is definitely motivated to capture that coveted fourth title, scoring at least 49 DraftKings points in eight-straight games while averaging just shy of 60 fantasy points per game in that span.
  • Anthony Davis, LAL ($11,800): Davis has been struggling a bit the last two games but we’re still talking about a guy who has 80-point upside and is still averaging 48 DraftKings points per game in this series despite “struggling”
  • Jimmy Butler, MIA ($10,800): It’s safe to say that Jimmy Buckets won’t go down without a fight. Not only has he scored at least 56 DK points in three-straight games, he’s also averaging 66 fantasy points per game in that span.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Goran Dragic, MIA ($8,000): Dragic might return here from a foot injury but he’s still too nicked up to trust. He could barely walk after tearing his plantar fascia and even if he does play, look for him to be limited in minutes and movement.
  • Duncan Robinson, MIA ($7,000): Robinson has the ability to go off but he also has the ability to kill your lineup. I hate that he has to face the top-ranked defense in the NBA here and can really only provide value through scoring.
  • Kyle Kuzma, LAL ($4,800): People on Twitter love Kuzma but he’s just not very valuable for DFS at this sort of price. He hasn’t reached 30 DK points in any playoff game thus far, averaging less than 20 fantasy points per outing.

View the top betting picks for the NBA Finals at BettingPros >>

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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