DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 4
A do-it-all back is the top stud option this week. As for the value plays, a punt tight end is the beneficiary of a quarterback change on his squad, and a rookie receiver who’s priced at just a couple hundred bucks above the minimum salary appears poised for an increased role this week. The top stack is a game stack featuring a quarterback/wide receiver pairing opposite another stud do-it-all back.
Stud Worth His Salary
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO): $8,000 at Lions
Even with Michael Thomas practicing and trending toward a return, Kamara’s heater of a season should continue in a drool-inducing matchup. Kamara has eclipsed 180 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games and has hauled in an absurd 22 receptions on 23 targets while scoring a pair of touchdowns in each of those games. Even with Thomas in the lineup in Week 1, Kamara was targeted eight times and caught five passes for 51 receiving yards and a touchdown.
To further elaborate on his matchup, the Lions have been trounced for 6.10 yards per carry by backs this year, coughing up 439 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 72 carries, per Pro-Football-Reference. Detroit has held backs to only 11 receptions on 17 targets this year, but the 10.45 yards per reception they’ve ceded to them does little to inspire confidence in their ability to bottle Kamara up in the passing game.
The Saints are four-point favorites in a projected shootout with an over/under total of 54 points, according to BettingPros, leaving the visitors with an implied total of 29 points. Kamara’s easily the best piece of exposure to that juicy implied total. He’ll likely be chalky this week, but he qualifies as good chalk.
Jimmy Graham (TE – CHI): $3,800 vs. Colts
Punting at tight end is a maneuver I’ll use frequently in GPP lineups, and it’s a popular move in general. Graham looks like a solid sub-$4,000 option who could see an uptick in rostership from point chasers after scoring 24 DraftKings points last week. This isn’t a point-chasing suggestion, though.
Instead, the veteran tight end’s usage is ideal from a fantasy perspective. He owns an 84.3% route participation percentage this year, and he’s been a red-zone target hog with seven of them already, according to PlayerProfiler. Further, he should benefit from Nick Foles unseating Mitchell Trubisky for the starting quarterback gig.
Foles relieved Trubisky last week and led the Bears to a comeback victory. Graham was the first player he targeted after entering the game, completing an 11-yard pass to him, according to the play-by-play data at Pro-Football-Reference. He peppered him with targets regularly, and the two connected on a 29-yard deep ball and a three-yard touchdown reception. The instant rapport coupled with Graham’s year-to-date usage make him my preferred tight end punt this week.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): $3,200 at Raiders
This year’s Bills feature a high-flying offense that looks nothing like it did last year. It’s a pass-happy attack that frequently features three or more receivers on the field with the Bills passing at the ninth-highest percentage (62%) and utilizing three or more receivers on 95% of their plays, according to Sharp Football Stats. Of note for Davis specifically, after opening eyes and earning praise in camp, the Bills have used four receivers on an NFL-high 21% of their snaps this year, easily outpacing the 13% mark sported by the Cardinals. Also, they’ve used five-receiver personnel four percent of the time, the third-highest percentage between the five percent usage of the Dolphins and Bengals this season.
Having said all of this, the context is just meant to point out the Bills have found ways to get Davis on the field even when at full health. Davis played 49% of the team’s snaps in Week 1 and 36% of them in Week 2 before netting 73% of the team’s snaps, as you can see on our snap counts report, in Week 3. The snap spike resulted directly from John Brown’s calf injury and early exit. Brown hasn’t practiced this week, and the path is paved for Davis to move up the pecking order for targets this week.
Davis wasn’t merely soaking up snaps, either — he produced. He caught all four of his targets for 81 receiving yards, second only to Cole Beasley’s 100 receiving yards. If you’re a fan of visual evidence, you’re in luck.
The Gabriel Davis hype is real. The body control, hand/eye coordination and hands exhibited on this play is elite. This is a rocket from Allen. This kid is a stud. pic.twitter.com/NKBxVajAC8
— Erik Turner (@ErikJTurner) September 28, 2020
And his day could have included a long touchdown if Josh Allen did a better job with his ball placement on the following throw he unnecessarily took Davis to the sideline on.
— Bradley Gelber (@BradleyGelber) September 27, 2020
Davis showed excellent awareness in getting both feet down, but a better throw would’ve led to a score. On the plus side for this week, it kept his stat line from truly popping, and it could serve to keep his rostership percentage lower than it otherwise would be.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): $6,600 vs. Vikings
Brandin Cooks (WR – JAC): $4,500 vs. Vikings
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): $7,600 at Texans
The Texans and Vikings have been bad defensively in 2020. Football Outsiders ranks the Vikings 19th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and the Texans 26th in DVOA. Unsurprisingly, the game’s over/under total is a fantasy-friendly 54.5 points with the host Texans favored by 4.5 points.
The Vikings have done a poor job of creating pressure this year, as they have a 20% pressure rate, which is the 12th-lowest mark this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. The lack of pressure allowed Aaron Rodgers to carve them up for 364 passing yards and four touchdown tosses in Week 1 — and for Ryan Tannehill to pass for 321 yards on only 37 attempts last week. Watson should have little trouble pummeling them, and with a lack of pressure, his field-stretching receivers have a chance for big days.
Will Fuller has posted better numbers thus far this year, and I suspect he’ll garner more love than Cooks both as a standalone option and in stacks with Watson. With that in mind, I’m happy pivoting to Cooks — he has a strong case for erupting this week.
Interestingly, Fuller and Cooks have an identical average depth of target of 11.8 yards downfield, but Cooks’ 213 intended air yards best Fuller’s 177 intended air yards, per Sports Info Solutions. Cooks also leads the team with 18 targets. His vertical usage and team-leading target total could lead to a big showing against a Vikings defense that’s tied for the third-most 20-plus yard passes allowed this year, according to NFL.com.
Opposite the Watson/Cooks stack is Cook. Running backs have run roughshod over the Texans this year. Football Outsiders ranks the Texans 24th in rush defense, and no one’s coughed up more yards to running backs than the 502 the Texans have yielded to them at a silly 5.84 yards per carry. They’ve also been giving in regards to explosive run plays, yielding 17% average explosive run rate that’s the fifth-highest mark this year, according to Sharp Football Stats.
This doesn’t look like a defense capable of keeping Cook in check. For the year, Cook is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and he’s coming off of a monster game in which he rumbled for 181 rushing yards and a score on 22 carries while reeling in two of his five targets for 18 yards. Even in a pair of mediocre yardage showings through two weeks — 48 yards from scrimmage in Week 1 and 71 yards from scrimmage in Week 2 — Cook was able to pick up the slack by scoring three touchdowns and converting three two-point attempts to boot! His ceiling is massive.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.