Finally, Week 4 is here! Well, most of it — the Titans/Steelers game won’t go ahead as scheduled due to the coronavirus. I hope that the NFL handles this situation well so that the season can go on, but there’s only so much the league can do outside of a bubble. Let’s keep our fingers crossed for player safety as we head back to the DFS well to find some value plays for this week.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three and four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 4!
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Last Week’s Picks
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC): 19.7 points (3.34x)
Running Back
Joshua Kelley (LAC): 6.2 points (1.24x)
Jerick McKinnon (SF): 16.7 points (3.41x)
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson (PIT): 0.9 points (0.16x) — injured
K.J. Hamler (DEN): 5.8 points (1.93x)
Andy Isabella (ARI): 20.1 points (5.28x)
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (WAS): 7.1 points (1.91x)
Last week was a pretty good one. A solid chunk of our picks hit value, and aside from Johnson (injured) and Kelley (my bad), none of them would have really cost you a solid performance in DFS. I don’t usually include honorable mentions, but Isabella would’ve made the cut had I known with certainty that Christian Kirk would sit out, so I included him here anyway. Now, let’s see who’s on tap for Week!
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This Week’s Value Plays
Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO): $5,800 at DET
Brees has not looked good this year. He’s throwing short passes and is refusing to take risks, and that’s part of why the Saints find themselves at 1-2. That said, he’s in a great rebound spot this week. The Lions’ defense has given up 22.7 DK PPG to quarterbacks this year, the 11th-most in the league. Michael Thomas has returned to practice (albeit on a limited basis), and if Brees has both Thomas and Alvin Kamara, then he’s a reliable low-end QB1 at DraftKings this week. If Thomas can’t go, consider pivoting to Baker Mayfield, who has the same price against the Cowboys’ struggling defense.
Honorable mention: Baker Mayfield (CLE): $5,800 at DAL
Running Back
Devin Singletary (BUF): $5,900 at LV
Without Zack Moss last week, Singletary got a massive workload. He touched the ball 17 times for 121 yards, and while he won’t score you touchdowns, DraftKings’ PPR scoring gives him some extra floor — four of his touches were receptions. The Bills draw the Raiders this week, and Las Vegas has given up the most DK PPG to running backs through three weeks. Their defense has also allowed running backs to gain 85 yards per game through the air, which is the highest mark in the league. Even if Moss is healthy enough to play, Singletary finds himself in a great spot for Sunday.
Darrell Henderson (LAR): $5,800 vs. NYG
After opening the season with a committee approach in the backfield, the Los Angeles Rams have begun to lean on Henderson. When asked if he would start this week, head coach Sean McVay said, “I think so,” adding that “the more that he plays and the more he’s available, the better he’s going to get.” That’s an excellent vote of confidence from McVay, and after he totaled 120 yards and a score on 21 touches, Henderson could be in for a big day against the Giants. New York is currently giving up the 10th-most DK PPG to running backs, and the Rams will probably keep the ball on the ground to run out the clock.
Honorable mention: David Montgomery (CHI): $5,500 vs. IND
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow (LV): $4,600 vs. BUF
Oh, boy — I’m excited about Renfrow again! I had written him off a few weeks ago because Henry Ruggs had seized control of his slot targets, but with Ruggs (and Bryan Edwards) out, the Raiders’ offense will look a lot like it did last year. That’s excellent news for Renfrow, as he averaged five receptions, 70 yards, and .6 touchdowns per game over his final seven appearances last season. He also plays the Bills this week, and Buffalo has surrendered tons of points to opposing slot receivers.
Ruggs & Edwards likely out. Hunter Renfrow 6-84-1 last week. He faces the Bills who have given up the following to slot receivers:
7-115-1 Jamison Crowder
7-76 Isaiah Ford
9-107-1 Cooper Kupp23-298-2 in 3 games https://t.co/8o8PALCkiN
— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) September 30, 2020
Preston Williams (MIA): $4,500 vs. SEA
I refuse to give up on Williams. After a low-volume Week 3 against the Jaguars, he’s now third on the Dolphins in air yards, although he was a close second back in Week 2. That said, there is hope for him this week. The Dolphins will play the Seahawks, and Seattle has allowed the most DK PPG to wide receivers by a large margin. Seriously, they’ve allowed 79.2 DK PPG to opposing teams’ receivers thus far — there’s a wider gap between them and the second-place Dallas Cowboys (52.7) than between the Cowboys and the 30th-place Las Vegas Raiders (27.3).
Honorable mention: If he’s healthy enough to play, Scotty Miller (TB): $4,100 vs. LAC
Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS): $3,500 vs. BAL
Thomas has been so frustrating this season. On the one hand, his high-volume role means that he ranks fifth in expected fantasy points among tight ends. On the other hand, Dwayne Haskins’ inefficiency means that he ranks first in points below expectations. Thomas is still a good process-based pick, and he should put up better fantasy numbers soon. His matchup with the Ravens isn’t very intimidating, either, as Baltimore has given up the fourth-most DK PPG to tight ends thus far.
Honorable mention: Just spend the extra $300 for T.J. Hockenson (DET): $4,800 vs. NO — the Saints are the league’s worst defense against tight ends
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
