Welcome to Week 5! Unlike last week, a game hasn’t already been delayed, although it’s certainly looking like the Titans and Patriots might have some problems. I’ll be avoiding both of those teams in this column as a result, and let’s dig into my plays for next week.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three and four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 5!
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Last Week’s Picks
Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO): 16.5 points (2.84x)
Running Back
Devin Singletary (BUF): 18.6 points (3.15x)
Darrell Henderson (LAR): 4.8 points (0.82x)
Wide Receivers
Hunter Renfrow (LV): 10.9 points (2.32x)
Preston Williams (MIA): 4.5 points (1.00x)
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas (WAS): 1.8 points (0.51x)
Not a bad week, not a good week. Singletary hit value, while Brees and Renfrow wouldn’t have ruined your weeks and were relatively good process picks. The Henderson bust came out of left field, and I think I’ve learned my lesson with Williams and Thomas.
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This Week’s Value Plays
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR): $5,900 at ATL
The Atlanta Falcons are giving up the most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to quarterbacks this season — 35.5 DKPPG, to be exact. There’s a larger gap between the Falcons and the fifth-worst Chargers (24.7 DKPPG) than between the Chargers and the 30th-worst (so third-best) Panthers. Wow. Sure, they should have cornerback A.J. Terrell back, but this remains a defense to target even with him around. Bridgewater is averaging 19 DKPPG this season, and at his current price point, even an average day would be enough for him to hit value.
Honorable mention: Joe Flacco (NYJ): $4,800 vs. ARI
Running Back
Todd Gurley II (ATL): $5,700 vs. CAR
We’ll go back to the Panthers and Falcons well here with Gurley. Remember how I said the Panthers had the third-best defense against quarterbacks? That’s probably because they have the second-worst defense against running backs. They give up 37.8 DKPPG to the position, and while there’s no jaw-dropping gap to talk about here, I’m still expecting Gurley to put up some points here. Gurley’s averaging 13.6 DKPPG on the year, but a lot of that drop can be attributed to the Falcons’ decision to pull him for Brian Hill when up big against the Cowboys. Look for him to hit around 20 this weekend.
David Johnson (HOU): $5,200 vs. JAC
The Jaguars, like the Panthers, have struggled against running backs. They haven’t been as bad as the Panthers, sure, but surrendering 32.2 DKPPG to running backs is still bad. The risk here is that Johnson hasn’t performed well of late — he hasn’t scored more than 12.6 points since Week 1, and he hasn’t totaled 100 yards through that span, either. However, this will be his best matchup to date, and interim head coach Romeo Crennell may end up running the ball more frequently than Bill O’Brien. I would roll the dice and hope that Johnson can recapture the magic he flashed back in Week 1.
Honorable mention: Antonio Gibson (WAS): $5,000 vs. LAR
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson (CAR): $5,900 at ATL
Anderson is priced at $5,900, while D.J. Moore is priced at $6,000. Except Anderson has out-targeted Moore (34-32), out-caught Moore (28-18), and out-produced Moore yardage-wise (377-288). Hmm. There’s a good chance that Moore has a bounce-back game, sure, but I would trust the sure thing here. The Falcons have surrendered a ton of DKPPG to wide receivers (41.9), but that number is lower than usual — the Falcons have only given up three receiving touchdowns to the position. They’ve given up the fourth-most yards to the position, though, and I’d look for some touchdown regression come Sunday.
Zach Pascal (IND): $4,600 at CLE
Pascal is a steal this week. At just $4,600, he’s $300 cheaper than T.Y. Hilton, yet he’s the clear-cut lead receiver in Indianapolis. Hilton is technically out-targeting him 22 to 19, but nine of Hilton’s targets came in Week 1 (40%). In contrast, 12 of Pascal’s 19 targets have come in the last two weeks (63%). The Browns give up the third-most DKPPG to receivers (52.7), and they’re a great target in Week 5. Unfortunately, Pascal doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he should get enough volume to hit value.
Honorable mention: Greg Ward (PHI): $4,500 at PIT
Tight End
Drew Sample (CIN): $3,700 at BAL
The tight end market is bone dry this week. As a result, I’ll recommend that you roll with Sample against the Ravens. Although Sample let fantasy players down in Week 3, he bounced back in Week 4. He caught three of five targets for 47 yards last week, good for 7.7 DK points. That’s not great, but his 13.8% target share was the fourth-most on the roster, behind just Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. I’m expecting the Bengals to be in a pass-heavy game script after going down early against the Ravens, the 11th-worst defense against tight ends.
Honorable mention: Eric Ebron (PIT): $4,000 vs. PHI
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
