DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 7 (2020)
We’re rapidly approaching the midway point of the 2020 season. I bet that you didn’t think we’d get here that fast, did you? As the weeks go on, we have more and more information from which to make picks, so expect the quality of advice you’re reading to increase.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 6!
Last Week’s Picks
Ryan Tannehill (TEN): 33.64 points (5.70x)
Darren Fells (HOU): 20.5 points (5.39x)
Last week went fairly well — almost everyone (except the wide receivers) hit value, and some (Tannehill, Fells) did so in a big way. I feel bad about the Shenault and Smith busts, but I wasn’t expecting D.J. Chark to play, so I can forgive myself a bit with Shenault. Smith, though? My bad. Let’s try to rebound at receiver this week!
This Week’s Value Plays
Joe Burrow (CIN): $5,500 vs. CLE
When the Bengals played the Browns in Week 2, Burrow scored 24.5 DraftKings points. While a lot of that production came in garbage time, there’s some cause for optimism here. First, A.J. Green actually played well last week, and if he can keep things up, the Bengals can get more efficient. Second, Joe Mixon might not be able to play. If that comes to pass, the entire Cincinnati offense would have to run through Burrow. The rookie’s problem has been a lack of touchdowns of late (he’s thrown just one since Week 4), but he threw three against the Browns before, and passing would be their best red-zone option if Mixon can’t go.
Honorable mention: Gardner Minshew (JAC): $5,900 at LAC.
Justin Jackson (LAC): $4,900 vs. JAC
Jackson led this backfield in Week 5 against the Saints, and with Austin Ekeler still out, he should do it again. He out-carried Joshua Kelley 15 to 11, and he out-targeted him six to one. Not only did Jackson get more volume, but he was also more efficient with it — Jackson got 4.7 yards per carry (YPC) and 4.6 yards per reception (YPR), compared to Kelley’s 2.6 YPC and 9.0 YPR on one catch. The other draw here is the matchup, as the Jaguars give up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to running backs at 31.7.
Kenyan Drake (ARI): $4,800 vs. SEA
Since Monday night games come after initial price releases, DraftKings really played themselves here. While he’d been losing ground to Chase Edmonds for a little bit, Drake rebounded massively on Monday Night Football — he ran for 164 yards and two scores. Sure, Drake isn’t getting much passing-game work, but he’s getting tons of volume on the ground. Drake ranks fifth in total rushing attempts with 105! Although Seattle isn’t the best matchup, it should be a high-scoring game, and look for Drake to punch in at least one touchdown.
Honorable mention: Latavius Murray (NO): $4,800 vs. CAR.
Jamison Crowder (NYJ): $5,900 vs. BUF
Like Burrow, Crowder also finds himself in a divisional rematch. The New York Jet caught seven of his 13 targets for 115 yards and a score in Week 1, and he finished as the overall WR9. Sure, a lot is TBD heading into this game: we don’t know if Joe Flacco or Sam Darnold will start, we don’t know if Denzel Mims will play, and we don’t know if Adam Gase will still have a job afterward. But we know that Tre’Davious White won’t line up in the slot, which is where Crowder plays 73% of his snaps, so the talented slot wideout should draw most of his quarterback’s targets.
Demarcus Robinson (KC): $3,400 at DEN
Robinson looked fantastic on Monday Night Football. He caught five of his six targets for 69 yards, and though he didn’t score, he has clearly inherited Sammy Watkins’ mid-range role in this offense. He should continue to get plenty of looks from Patrick Mahomes while Watkins sits out, and he’ll just need to score 10.2 points to hit value. He’s a volume-based bargain against the Denver Broncos, a team that’s giving up the 12th-most points to opposing wide receivers (39.2 DK PPG).
Honorable mention: Mike Williams (LAC): $4,700 vs. JAC.
Ian Thomas (CAR): $3,000 at NO.
I’m going to be real: there aren’t a lot of good plays below $4,500 at tight end. You could roll with Darren Fells ($4,100) again if Jordan Akins is still hurt, of course, but I’m expecting him to return sooner rather than later. You could hope that Logan Thomas ($3,500) has another strong week, although his quarterback play and inconsistency leave much to be desired. Or you could play the tight end that’s facing the league’s worst tight end defense: the New Orleans Saints. They give up 22.9 DKPPG to the position. To put that in perspective, there’s a bigger gap between the Saints and the sixth-worst Bengals than the Bengals and the fifth-best Patriots. Ian Thomas hasn’t been getting tons of volume this year, but he’s a cheap punt play in an exploitable matchup.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.