Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: Week 5
With four weeks of the NFL season in the books, you probably have a good idea whether you’re competing or rebuilding in your dynasty leagues.
Sometimes buying low and selling high on players comes with a lot of risks, and other times you’re rewarded nicely. If you bought low on Joe Mixon, you definitely were rewarded with a huge game last week. On the other hand, if you sold high on Robby Anderson, you’re probably annoyed that he continues to produce.
Either way, your dynasty teams will benefit in the long run if you take advantage of these times to buy low and sell high on certain players. Here are some players I’m looking at heading into Week 5.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
Recently placed on the injured reserve due to a sprained MCL, Chubb is expected to miss six or more weeks. Kareem Hunt will instantly become a top-10 fantasy running back, potentially even top-five.
With Chubb, this is simply being proactive and doing what you can to acquire him if a manager is concerned. Since Hunt — who has already produced strong fantasy numbers — will lead Cleveland’s backfield, there’s a good chance fantasy players will go crazy about how well he performs while Chubb is out.
You don’t necessarily have to immediately go out and acquire Chubb, but use these next few weeks to potentially let your opponents freak out a bit. Then buy “low” on Chubb if you can. I just saw Chubb get traded straight up for James Robinson in a dynasty league. I talked about Robinson being a sell-high candidate last week, so this is a perfect example of taking advantage of perfect situations to buy and sell in dynasty leagues.
Chubb isn’t going to be cheap, but if you wait a few weeks and let this situation play itself out, you’ll likely have a window to buy him for much lower than what he’s worth. Chubb is still just 24 years old and in his third NFL season. If you roster Chubb, I’d hold. If you don’t, keep an eye on this situation over the next few weeks, as you might be able to grab him for a nice bargain.
Verdict: Buy “Low”/Hold
Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF)
Would anyone have guessed that Jerick McKinnon would be an RB1 after four weeks of the NFL season? I don’t think so.
Thanks to injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, San Francisco’s backfield continues to be a major question mark on a weekly basis. However, McKinnon has found the end zone in each of the last three weeks and got 17 and 21 touches over the past two games. He is clearly the back to roster right now and has been a huge value. McKinnon hadn’t played an NFL down since 2017 with the Vikings, and yet this year he’s currently the RB10 in PPR scoring and RB12 in standard-scoring leagues.
Since he is currently a solid weekly option, I’d likely hold on to him if you’re competing to win this year. However, don’t be afraid to sell high if the price is right. Given how this backfield has looked, I’d even consider acquiring him if the price is cheap enough. On the other hand, if you’re not competing this year, you can definitely sell high. It’s an interesting situation, as you can make a case for buying, selling, or holding depending on where your team stands. For the most part, I’m looking to hold or sell high on McKinnon.
Verdict – Sell High/Hold
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU)
If you roster Deshaun Watson, you’re probably fairly disappointed with his start. After finishing as the QB5 in two straight seasons, Watson is currently the QB15 overall. As a result, this might just be the cheapest you’ll find him for a long time.
So far, he’s tallied seven total touchdowns, including one on the ground, with three interceptions. The Texans’ schedule was brutal to start the year, and not having DeAndre Hopkins to feed is obviously not ideal, but things should definitely turn around quickly. The Texans get the Jaguars twice over the next five weeks and play the Titans, who have given up plenty of points to opposing quarterbacks.
If you’re in a 2QB or Superflex league, it will be tough to acquire Watson. But after a slow start, this might be the only opportunity you’ll have to buy “low”. Of course, the price will still be high, but it’ll likely be lower than what it should be. In 1QB leagues, I’d still be interested in making a move for him if you need a quarterback. Taking advantage of small windows to buy someone for lower than their true value is a key part of dynasty football.
Verdict – Buy Low/Hold
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)
Detroit’s rookie running back D’Andre Swift has been off to a very slow start, as the Lions for some reason insist on using Adrian Peterson and apparently now are trying to also get Kerryon Johnson involved. Either way, watching these three backs play, it’s clear that Swift is the most talented one. It’s just a matter of time before the Lions realize that and start utilizing him more.
Swift is currently the RB33 in PPR and RB37 in standard-scoring leagues. Prior to the 2020 NFL Draft, I had Swift as my top-ranked rookie and still love his talent in both the ground game and passing game.
Swift has seen three, five, zero, and four carries in his first four games and received 16 targets, catching 13 of them for 124 receiving yards and a touchdown. As one of the most talented running backs in an extremely talented rookie class, Swift might be the most obvious buy-low running back of that group right now. Don’t expect him to be cheap, as his manager is likely still fairly excited about him, but now might be the cheapest Swift’s price will be all year.
Verdict – Buy Low
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.