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FanDuel DFS MLB Strategy Advice: Tuesday (10/6)

Oct 6, 2020

This is where things get good. We’re down to the final eight teams and we finally got some action on Monday. The good news is that we have all four games on this ledger and it’s safe to say that every game from here on out is extremely important. This marks Game 1 for the NL teams and Game 2 for the AL clubs. With all of that in mind, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Walker Buehler (LAD) vs. SD $8,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Max Fried (ATL) vs. MIA $8,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
  • Buehler is my favorite pitcher on the slate and we’ll discuss that more later.
  • Fried has had a breakout season for the Braves and he easily has the best matchup on the board. In fact, Fried owns a 2.25 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the season and gets to face a Marlins club that ranked 20th in runs scored and 16th in wOBA. That has Fried and Atlanta entering this matchup as a -200 favorite, the largest money line of the day.

Catcher/First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Freddie Freeman (ATL) vs. MIA $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jesus Aguilar (MIA) vs. ATL $2,800 ⭐⭐⭐ Low
Nate Lowe (TB) vs. NYY $2,700 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Freeman is probably the best hitting play on the board and I’ll discuss why later.
  • Aguilar has had a bounceback season for the Marlins and he could have some success against a lefty. So far this year, Aguilar has a .390 OBP and .956 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
  • Lowe has been awesome against righties all year, totaling a .409 OBP, .676 SLG, and 1.085 OPS against them this season.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Brandon Lowe (TB) vs. NYY $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. OAK $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Lowe has been the Rays best player this year, owning a .362 OBP, .554 SLG, and .916 OPS.
  • Altuve has been a stud against lefties throughout his career, posting an OPS just shy of .900 against lefties since 2018.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. OAK $3,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Yandy Diaz (TB) vs. NYY $2,600 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Bregman has also been crushing lefties and we’ll discuss that in the studs section.
  • Diaz should be right in the heart of the Rays order which is stellar news when you consider his absurd .428 OBP for the season.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Corey Seager (LAD) vs. SD $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. HOU $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Marcus Semien (OAK) vs. OAK $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Seager is having the best season of his career and we like him no matter what righty the Padres throw out there. Against right-handers this season, Seager has a .324 AVG, .627 SLG, and 1.005 OPS.
  • Correa hit two dingers on Monday and we absolutely love that when you consider that he has an OBP approaching .400 against lefties since 2018.
  • Semien also gets the platoon advantage in his favor against Valdez and should not be below $3K when you see his .830 OPS since the beginning of last season.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
George Springer (HOU) vs. OAK $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Stephen Piscotty (OAK) vs. HOU $2,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Joc Pederson (LAD) vs. LAD $2,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
  • Springer is on fire right now and he’ll definitely find his way into the next section.
  • It’s pretty crazy that Piscotty is just $2,600 against a southpaw. Since the beginning of last season, Piscotty has an OBP above .350 against lefties en route to an .850 OPS.
  • Speaking of splits, Pederson is always in play against a righty. Since 2018, Joc owns a .335 OBP, .543 SLG, and .879 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.

4 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • Walker Buehler, LAD ($8,900): Buehler has been amazing ever since his call-up and comes into this matchup rolling. In fact, he’s got a 1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 12.7 K/9 rate over his last three starts. Not to mention, he had two starts against this righty-heavy San Diego lineup last season, pitching 15 scoreless innings while striking out a ridiculous 26 batters.
  • Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4,200): Freeman has been the best hitter in baseball the last two months, generating a .509 OBP, .733 SLG, and 1.242 OPS over his last 37 games played. Barry Bonds would be impressed by those numbers.
  • George Springer, HOU ($4,000): Springer gets the platoon advantage against one of the worst pitchers on the slate and has a .385 OBP, .733 SLG, and 1.118 OPS over his last 15 games played. Springer also has 34 at-bats against Manaea and has a .395 OPS against him if you needed any more incentive.
  • Alex Bregman, HOU ($3,600): Bregman has killed lefties throughout his career and we love him against a low-K guy like Manaea. Since 2018, Bregman owns a .420 OBP, .642 SLG, and 1.062 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. In 29 at-bats against the A’s lefty, Bregman has a .414 OBP and 1.066 OPS.

3 Notable Players to Fade

  • Framber Valdez, OAK ($10,000): Valdez is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate by a significant margin and it’s hard to understand why. Not only does he face a righty-heavy A’s lineup that’s projected for 4,5 runs, but he also has a 5.33 ERA over his last four starts.
  • Fernando Tatis Jr, SD ($4,300): A matchup against Buehler is always a tough task for any righty, particularly one struggling this badly. Over his last 16 games played, Tatis is hitting just .164 while amassing a gross .533 OPS. Obviously, that’s hard to trust from a $4,300 player.
  • Kyle Tucker, HOU ($3,700): Tucker is hitting just .221 against left-handers this season while posting an OBP south of .270 and he’s way too costly for someone with that sort of average.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel

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