FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 7 (2020)
Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season. Last week I wasn’t able to write this piece but much like FanDuel’s live scoring we’re back…well, kind of. Hopefully, everyone was able to avoid the multiple landmines that littered the fantasy landscape in Week 6.
Have a short memory folks, and trust your process. Players like Alexander Mattison were in a great spot to capitalize on heavy usage, but the gamescript quickly got out of control, and the Minnesota Vikings were unable to establish the run. In most cash games he was highly rostered, despite his price increase.
This week sees the following teams on bye: The Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Vikings. For the sake of cash games, the removal of Mattison from the player pool is probably a blessing for many of us. This week also has four games in the late afternoon time slot, a nice return to normalcy after last week’s scheduling debacle. As is always the case, when creating your lineups offer yourself the flexibility whenever possible by putting your players with a late start in the FLEX spot. That of course is relevant if, and only if, you’re actually able to utilize the late swap (not bitter at all).
The players below are ones I’m looking at for cash game considerations in Week 7 of the 2020 season:
Matthew Stafford (DET): $7,300 at Atlanta Falcons
Kirk Cousins might have thrown for three interceptions against this Falcons defense last week, but he also threw for 343 yards and three touchdowns. Garbage time still counts just the same in fantasy football. This week Stafford and the Lions will attempt to be the seventh consecutive team to throw for more than 300 yards against the Falcons secondary.
The numbers allowed to opposing quarterbacks right now from the Falcons is just silly. They’ve allowed four passing touchdowns to three different opponents. Dak Prescott only threw for one touchdown but rushed for three additional scores. Teddy Bridgewater and the aforementioned Cousins only totaled two and three passing touchdowns, respectively.
Stafford meanwhile has yet to surpass 300 passing yards in a game this season, but that’s almost certain to change this week. Over the Lions’ last two games, the downfield strikes have returned. In the first three games of the season, Stafford was averaging less than 10 yards per target. Over the last two games, he’s averaged 11.8 and 10 yards per target, respectively.
Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,500 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Herbert thus far has been lights out, but his team thus far hasn’t found a way to win games. On the season, 12 different quarterbacks have passer ratings of 100 or more. Only Herbert and Deshaun Watson have losing records, however. That could all change this weekend though.
On the season the Jaguars have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Perhaps trading away their best pass rusher wasn’t so great for their 2020 outlook on defense. The Jaguars defense ranks last in the NFL in defensive pass DVOA and overall DVOA on defense.
What are these stats saying? Justin Herbert is averaging 22.6 FPG (8th-best)
If his schedule were perfectly neutral, we could say he'd be averaging 27.3 FPG (4th-best)
His matchup this week — Jacksonville, ranks 13th-worst (+1.4), so could say 28.7 FP expectation this week https://t.co/Kgqn58Gkkx
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 20, 2020
Alvin Kamara (NO): $9,300 vs. Carolina Panthers
Start running backs against the Panthers. On average, the Panthers are giving up 7.2 receptions and 1.3 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs. Kamara is getting a ton of usage this season too. He’s one of 16 running backs with 100 carries and targets on the season.
According to PFF, Kamara has the highest receiving grade among qualifying players (91.6). Kamara ranks fifth among highest-graded running backs (81.3). Kamara is averaging 21 touches per game, eighth in the NFL.
The Saints are 7.5 point favorites and are playing at home. If you’re spending up at running back, Kamara is a great cash game option.
Aaron Jones (GB): $8,500 at Houston Texans
Remember what I said about starting running backs against Carolina? REALLY start running backs against the Texans. Four different running backs have already rushed for 100 yards against the Titans. Opposing running backfields average 161.5 rushing yards per game against Houston. That is 25 more yards per game than the second worst team in the NFL. Jones will be in all my cash lineups this weekend.
The Texans run defense this season:
– 196 rush attempts (most)
– 1,065 rush yards (most)
– 381 yards before contact (most)
– 665 yards after contact (most)
– 8 TDs (5th most)
A matchup with Aaron Jones is on deck pic.twitter.com/SSZXRlVqVC
— Jarad Evans (@PFF_Jarad) October 19, 2020
Christian Kirk (ARI): $5,400 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks might be getting a lot of credit for letting Russell Wilson “cook”, but their defense is getting cooked every week by opposing passing attacks. The Seahawks have already allowed 1,472 yards to wide receivers this season. That’s the worst in the NFL and Seattle has already had its bye week. Yikes.
Last week Kirk led the Cardinals in receiving yards on just three targets. This week might not be much different either from a yardage standpoint. Teammate DeAndre Hopkins is nursing an ankle injury. While there’s little doubt he suits up, Kirk will likely have an increased role this weekend.
With that said, I’m firing up Christian Kirk at $4,900 on #DraftKings this week.
•No.12 in Average Target Distance
•No.10 in Deep Targets (9)
•No.6 in YPR (18.5)
•3 TDs in the last three weeks
•55.5 point total over/under
•3.5-point underdogs https://t.co/Vt4MC0gtgq pic.twitter.com/dqRJRnWnaN
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) October 22, 2020
While the above tweet mentions Kirk’s Draftkings pricing, the details of Kirk’s role in this offense is the information we want to focus on. Kirk will likely be matched up with Shaq Griffin this weekend. Griffin has been targeted 45 times this season and has allowed 31 receptions for 412 yards. Opposing quarterbacks have a 108.7 quarterback rating targeting Griffin. This game has all the makings of a shoot-out. Kirk is a great low-cost option to get exposure to it. Pairing him with Murray at quarterback is definitely in play in cash games.
Kenny Golladay (DET): $7,600 at Atlanta Falcons
Recency bias might indicate that what happened to Adam Thielen will also happen to Golladay. Don’t fall into that trap. While Golladay failed to find the end zone against the Jaguars, he quietly went over 100 receiving yards last week for the first time this season. This Falcons secondary is bad folks.
Which Week 7 matchups feature big-play offenses vs. big-play allowing defenses?
Higher or lower % = large or small combined sum of the pass/rush big-play rate from the matchup's offense and defense (green=good, red=bad)
Big pass play: 20+ yds
Big run play: 15+ pic.twitter.com/HqJY5AvO7g
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 21, 2020
Hunter Henry (LAC): $5,800 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Opposing tight ends have found the end zone against the Jaguars in four of the last five games. Only seven defenses have allowed five or more touchdowns to tight ends. The Jaguars are one of them. Henry is second on the Chargers in red zone targets, with all three coming inside the 10-yard line. Henry has increased his yards per catch, yards after the catch, and yards per route run from last season. He’s on the verge of a serious breakout and gets a cakewalk matchup here.
T.J. Hockenson (DET): $5,900 at Atlanta Falcons
It’s a bit disconcerting that Hockenson hasn’t been able to pull away from Jesse James in snap counts. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Lions are running 12-personnel on just 17% of their offensive snaps this season. Hockenson has only seen over 70% of the offensive snaps in two of the five games this season.
TJ Hockenson is back to splitting time with Jesse James
Route Rate by Week (Week 3 > Week 4 > Week 6)
89% > 72% > 66%
20% > 28% > 44%
— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) October 21, 2020
However, the Falcons are certainly a team to target. On the season, the Falcons have allowed the second most receptions and receiving yards to opposing tight ends and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
I don’t know if I can play Hockenson over Henry for $100 less this weekend, but the matchup is there. Ultimately though, if I’m not spending up for Travis Kelce against the Denver Broncos, I’ll likely have Henry as my de facto cash game tight end this weekend.
Other notables: Travis Kelce (KC): $7,900 @ DEN;
Buffalo Bills D/ST: $5,000 at New York Jets
The Dolphins just shut out the Jets. What do you think the Bills are going to do to them? Joe Flacco just isn’t the answer in 2020. On the season, the Jets have scored more than 17 points just once. They are the only team this season to be shut out. Over the last three games, the Jets have allowed 12 sacks. If you have the funds, this is the play in cash and even in consideration in tournaments.
Kansas City Chiefs D/ST: $4,600 at Denver Broncos
Kansas City will definitely be in consideration for me this weekend if I don’t play the Buffalo defense.
The only team Denver has scored more than 21 points against was the Jets. Over the last four games, Denver quarterbacks have thrown eight interceptions and have been sacked 15 times.
Other notables: Washington Football Team D/ST: $3,800 vs. DAL
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