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Wow, is it really Week 6 already? Hope you had a good Week 5? Before we jump into tonight’s slate I want to introduce you to a new stat that I’ve started using. It’s called Defensive Points Allowed Consistency or D-Pac for short. We all know what defensive points allowed is, but D-Pac shows you how consistently a team gives up a lot of points to a certain position. This helps eliminate the “one bad game” or “one good game” that skews the defensive points allowed stat. To read more about this stat or to try it out for yourself, check it out for free at ProFootballNetwork.com. Now, let’s get to the slate…
Quarterback
Daniel Jones (NYG):$6,700 vs. WAS
FanDuel has done a good job pricing up the QBs this week, and because of that, there isn’t much value that I like. However, if I was to pick one of the cheap quarterbacks that could completely surprise us with a huge fantasy day, I’d have to go with Jones. He has rushing upside as we saw in Week 3 and four gaining 49 and 45 yards respectively. If he can hit a couple of big plays down the field to Darius Slayton or Evan Engram, he could surprise a lot of people.
Running Back
Phillip Lindsay (DEN): $5,100 @ NE
I’m sure you’ve heard by now that Melvin Gordon got a DUI earlier in the week, and while it is unclear as to whether or not he will be allowed to play this week, I like Lindsay either way. Lindsay is one of those rare players that night actually be better when he touches the ball less. Last year as the lead back he wore down as the season went on and he seemed to lose some explosiveness. He should be fresh now having missed all but one game, and if Gordon is there to take the pounding between the tackles look for Lindsay to bust a big run or turn a short catch into a long gain.
David Montgomery (CHI): $5,900 @ CAR
Last week on my show, the Armchair Fantasy Show, I called out Todd Gurley as someone I was willing to play because of how bad the Panthers run defense is. Well, it paid off so I’m going back to the well. The Panthers are second to only the Las Vegas Raiders in points allowed to running backs and they have the ninth-best D-Pac matchup (per ProFootballNetwork.com).
Wide Receiver
N’Keal Harry (NE): $5,400 vs. DEN
If you have read any of my value columns this year, you already know that I planted my flag on Harry and I’m not ready to let go yet. Two weeks ago I predicted he would break out, but I made that proclamation before Cam Newton was ruled out for Covid-19. I was all ready to proclaim last week “N’Keal Harry” week, but the game was postponed to this week. So here we are, the moment I’ve been waiting all summer for — N’Keal Harry week. The Broncos give up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and they offer the third-best D-Pac matchup with a 26.59 c-score — only the Seahawks and Jags consistently give up more points to wide receivers.
Chase Claypool (PIT): $5,500 vs. CLE
A couple of spots behind the Broncos in D-Pac and points allowed to wide receivers are the Browns. We saw what Claypool did last week — I highly doubt he does that again–ever. However, at $5,500, he doesn’t have to. I think Claypool is an auto-lock if Diontae Johnson is ruled out, if Johnson plays I don’t like him quite as much, but he will still be viable.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (TB): $5,000 vs. GB
Gronkowski has yet to reach the end zone yet this season, but I think that will change this week. The Packers are the sixth-best D-Pac matchup, and despite not giving up a ton of points to the tight end this year (8.5 points), this is a good matchup for Gronk.
Defense
Bengals $3,300 @IND
Value defenses are ugly this week, but you probably balked at my Giants call from last week against the high-powered Cowboys — and how’d that work out? Okay, enough of me tooting my own horn, but for the same reasons I liked the Giants, I like the Bengals. Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has been a walking interception over the last two seasons. Give me a couple of INTs, maybe you get a pick-six and a few sacks on the statue that is Philip Rivers and you hit value. Not to mention, the style that the Colts play doesn’t lend itself to be high-scoring — they want to run the ball and play defense.
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