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We are at the halfway point of the season and we have seen some crazy things happen over the first half. From Derrick Henry‘s 90-plus yard run a few weeks ago to the Falcons finding new and exciting ways to give away fourth-quarter leads. If the second act is half as good as the first, it may help us forget about all the bad things 2020 has brought. Now let’s get to this week’s values…
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Quarterback
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $6,600 @ SEA
The only starting quarterback priced less than Garoppolo is Sam Darnold. He priced less than rookie Tua Tagovailoa making his first NFL start and cheaper than Drew Lock who is averaging under nine fantasy points a game on the season. Only the Falcons give up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Seahawks (26.42ppg), the Seahawks can put up points that could force the 49ers to pass it more than they would like.
Running Back
DeeJay Dallas (SEA): $4,600 vs. SF
This is more about the “last man standing” narrative than it is a great matchup. In fact, the matchup is downright awful as the 49ers have yet to allow a 100-yard rusher all season. With Chris Carson, Travis Homer, and Carlos Hyde all on the injury report, there is a chance that Dallas is the only healthy running back in this game. At $4,600, the matchup won’t matter if he gets all the volume.
J.K. Dobbins (BAL): $5,100 vs. PIT
Mark Ingram is on the injury report and hasn’t practiced as of Thursday. That leaves Gus Edwards and Dobbins to carry the load, however, the Steelers run defense is No. 1 in DVOA and could shut down the run game. Since Gus Edwards does not catch passes (9 career catches, none in 2020), that may open up some things for Dobbins to do some damage in the passing game.
Wide Receiver
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE): $5,200 vs. LV
With Odell Beckam Jr. done for the season, everyone will be looking at Rashard Higgins to step up, and he very well could. However, DPJ looked good in limited work last week and is a nice tournament pivot off the chalkier Higgins play. The Raiders are 29th DVOA versus the pass this season and give up the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF): $5,900 @ SEA
Deeboo Samuel was put on the three-week I.R. list, leaving Aiyuk as the top pass catcher in this offense. The Seahawks are dead last in points allowed to wide receivers with a whopping 60.15 points allowed, a full 12 points higher than the second-worst team, the Browns. The 49ers will also find ways to get Aiyuk involved in the running game with jet sweeps and reverses.
Tight End
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN): $4,500 @ GB
We saw some flashes from ISJ in the two games before their bye — eight catches on 10 targets with 119 receiving yards. The Vikings are in desperate need of a third option in this passing game behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and Smith Jr. has the pedigree and athleticism to be that guy. It’s a tough matchup with the Packers, but he is cheap enough to take that risk.
Defense
Miami Dolphins: $7,300 vs. LAR
I had to really reach to find a good value defense, and the best I could come up with is the Dolphins. This is definitely a week to pay up for defenses, however, if you want to pay down, the Dolphins haven’t been a bad choice this season. Three times this season they have scored 12 or more fantasy points, and Jared Goff has been known to struggle on the road. In fact, three of his four interceptions are on the road. It’s a weak endorsement, I know, but I don’t see too many cheap defenses I like this week.
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