FanDuel Projected Roster Percentage: Week 7 (2020)
It’s kind of crazy to think about it, but we’re almost halfway through the NFL regular season. I hope that your DFS ventures have been profitable thus far! If they haven’t been, well, you’ve still got some time to turn things around!
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
NOTE: Russell Wilson is such a popular play for Week 7 that he caused an error with our tool. It expects him to be rostered in 40%+ of lineups.
I’m not sure why these numbers add up to way more than 100%, but they still offer some insight into who’s hot and who’s not. Wilson and Murray are chalk this week — you should bet on them in cash leagues and consider betting against them in tournaments. A ton of stacks are going to be anchored on Cardinals and Seahawks players this week, and you should plan accordingly.
Outside of those picks, Matthew Stafford should be a popular start against the Falcons. Atlanta’s defense has been roastable this season, and Stafford should continue to exploit them through the air. His opponent, Matt Ryan, should also be another popular start, as Detroit’s defense has also struggled, and they’ won’t have starting cornerback (and ex-Falcon) Desmond Trufant.
Josh Allen and Justin Herbert, two similar big-arm quarterbacks, round out the 10-20% range. They could both get game scripted out of should-be blowouts, however, which makes them risky options in DFS.
Again, the percentages seem a little wonky here, but they still reveal some valuable information. Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt are functionally chalk at FanDuel this week, and you should plan accordingly. That said, Aaron Jones should see his numbers decline now a minor calf injury has made him a game-time decision. Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon would see their numbers skyrocket if Jones can’t play.
We’ve got Jerick McKinnon and Antonio Gibson up next. FanDuel players are execting a rebound from McKinnon now that Raheem Mostert is out, and while I’m cautiously optimistic about his chances, this isn’t the best matchup for a bounce-back game. I’m much more excited about Gibson, as the Football Team won’t have a handful of their receivers, which will open up more chances for Gibson.
Joe Mixon shows up here because these numbers are generated based on full-slate contests. Now that he’s been ruled out, don’t expect to see him on any competitive rosters. Giovani Bernard could see a surge in rostership, however.
There’s no true chalk at wide receiver this week. The three players who headline this list, Robby Anderson, Davante Adams, and Tyler Boyd, while popular, just aren’t in chalk range. Picking Anderson against the Saints seems kind of bold, especially since New Orleans has a pair of tough cornerbacks in Janoris Jenkins and Marshon Lattimore, but it could work out.
Davante Adams is a safe bet to explode against the Texans, especially if Aaron Jones is forced to miss time. The Packers just don’t have any other weapons to target. Also, Tyler Boyd already proved himself the last time he took on the Browns. Boyd caught seven of his eight targets for 72 yards and a score, which is tons of value at his price point.
Of the other names, it’s not surprising to see a Cardinal (DeAndre Hopkins) and a Seahawk (DK Metcalf). If Hopkins’ injury keeps him out of (or limits him in) Sunday’s game, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald would be smart pivots
To my surprise, neither Travis Kelce nor George Kittle cracked this list. Henry should be popular against Jacksonville’s seventh-worst tight end defense, although there is a risk that the game script could limit his role — the Jaguars are terrible against the run, and the Chargers attempt the second-most rushing plays per game.
Darren Fells and Robert Tonyan should both be popular as well. Fells is a smart pick with Jordan Akins likely to be sidelined again, but he’s always a touchdown-dependent option. Meanwhile, we’ve yet to see Tonyan do much with Davante Adams back in the lineup, and he failed to practice until Friday of this week. I would avoid him and roll with Henry or Fells instead.
As Sunday approaches, expect the Washington Football Team to become a more popular play. They’re facing an opponent with tons of issues along the offensive line, and the team ranks 10th in sacks per game (2.7).
Of the units on the list, teams favored to handily defeat their opponents (Browns, Chargers, Chiefs, Bills) are well-represented despite their high price points. Both the Texans and Packers should be popular as well, although their game’s projected point total (57) is currently far too high for me to target. Lastly, the Jets, a contrarian play against the Bills, round out the list.
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