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Fantasy Football QB1 Targets: Week 4 (2020)

Fantasy Football QB1 Targets: Week 4 (2020)

All season long in this space, I will rank the tiers of quarterbacks for each week based on a variety of factors. The primary consideration will always be the true talent and ability of the signal-caller. Other circumstances, such as the scheduled matchup, surrounding talent, offensive line play, and advanced metrics are then weighed in to produce a weekly ranking.

Nobody is ever going to bench Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes (unless you have both and can only start one, which would be the most asinine roster construction of all time). Publishing a ranking on this site that lists them as the top options in a given week is neither actionable advice nor worthwhile content. If you’re reading this column, it’s most likely because you fall into one of three categories. You either waited on your quarterback during the draft and are trying to choose between two mid-range options on your roster, you are streaming at the position, or you play in a SuperFlex or 2QB league and are trying to decide who to plug into your SuperFlex slot.

In an effort to strategically evaluate quarterbacks each week and provide meaningful advice, we should break the position into those three fantasy-relevant tiers:

  1. Top 3 mid-range quarterbacks who have the best shot at top-5 week.
  2. Top 3 widely available quarterbacks you can stream who have the best shot at producing a top-10 week.
  3. Top 3 QB2 options who have the best shot at producing a top-10 week.

In many cases, there will be some overlap, especially when looking at QB2 options in a SuperFlex league who are likely to be available on the wire to stream in a 1QB league. However, the goal here is to offer you a fresh perspective tailored to a fantasy owner’s actual needs that might help you solve a lineup crunch. After all, you don’t need me to tell you to start Mahomes.

***Note: I’ll no longer be including Thursday Night Football options in this article, as it publishes on Fridays.

On to Week 4…

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Mid-Range QB1s with Week-Winning Upside

Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Aaron Rodgers is on fire to begin the season, and he has averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game. He’s even got some swagger back.

However, Davante Adams figures to enter the weekend with a questionable tag as he tries to get his hamstring right, and the team just lost Allen Lazard indefinitely less than a week after his breakout game. That said, Atlanta has now allowed 38, 40, and 30 points (all losses) to open the season, engaging in a shootout literally every week as they have permitted the most passing yards in the NFL through three games. Green Bay found a way to involve tight ends Robert Tonyan and Jace Sternberger last week, and there’s a chance that Adams will play as well. Atlanta is also allowing over 500 yards after the catch, the most in football, so expect to see Aaron Jones involved more in the passing game as the Packers attempt to get their playmakers in space.

Jared Goff (LAR) vs. New York Giants
After a brief tour on the QB2 circuit, Jared Goff appears to back in the QB1 circle, and he’s currently PFF’s fourth-highest graded quarterback. This week, he gets a New York Giants team that’s ranked near the bottom of the league in passing defense DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. The Giants faced a similar offense last week in the San Francisco 49ers, and Nick Mullens led a depleted offense while completing nearly 70% of his passes for 343 yards and a score while New York served up 36 points to the Niners’ JV squad. Goff should thrive in this spot, and he racks up more yards than most people realize.

Streaming Options (under 60% rostered in most leagues) with QB1 Upside

Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) at Seattle Seahawks
The bearded wonder continues to sling it, and this week, he gets a Seattle defense ranked second to last in PFF’s pass-rushing grades and 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. The Seahawks simply haven’t been able to generate the kind of pressure that forces “Fitzmagic” to make plays that aren’t there. The Seahawks have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league while boasting arguably the NFL’s most explosive offense now that they’re letting Russell Wilson air it out more. With DeVante Parker and Preston Williams both healthy, Mike Gesicki offering another red-zone threat, and Myles Gaskin moving the chains via dump-offs, Fitzpatrick fits the profile as a slinging streamer who should be facing a negative game script all game — that’s the perfect recipe for fantasy points. Add in the Over/Under at 53.5 (third highest of the week), and it’s clear that points will indeed be scored. Never underestimate the beard.

Nick Mullens (SF) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Mullens showed what head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive game plan can do to a soft defense last week. This week, the 49ers should get stud tight end George Kittle back from a sprained MCL and bone bruise that sidelined him for two games. While Deebo Samuel probably won’t play until Week 5, rookie receiver Brandon Aiyuk flashed similar YAC skills against the Giants. Armed with an electric running game that also makes hay through the air, Mullens makes for an excellent stream this week against a Philadelphia defense ranked in the bottom 10 for pass-defense DVOA. And before you laugh at that idea, consider that Mullens is apparently already more relevant than Carson Wentz.

SuperFlex Options with QB1 Upside

Baker Mayfield (CLE) vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys rival the Seahawks when it comes to explosive offenses. Unfortunately, they’re also throwing a ton for the same reason Seattle does — a leaky pass defense. The Cowboys have already allowed nine passing touchdowns on the season, which is tied with Atlanta for the most in football. Expect Cleveland to try and control this game on the ground to keep the Dallas air attack on the sidelines as much as possible. However, it’s unlikely that the Browns will enjoy the favorable game scripts they have had the last two weeks, which allowed Baker Mayfield to attempt just 23 passes per game. The benefit of a ball-control offense (other than winning), is that the Browns have seen Mayfield’s confidence return as he plays better football. Cleveland has the weapons in the passing game to compete in this game, and Mayfield will almost certainly need to attempt more than 23 passes to keep up with Dallas this week.

Joe Burrow (CIN) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Joe Burrow has graduated beyond streamer status thanks to increased rosterhip, and he’s firmly in the high-end QB2 camp now in SuperFlex leagues. The Jaguars have allowed 8.0 net yards gained per pass attempt (second-most in the NFL), which means that they give up a lot of yards relative to the minimal pressure they generate. This is a welcome reprieve for Burrow, who plays behind the league’s worst offensive line. Despite running for his life on every play, Burrow continues to show the mettle and moxie that made him a national champion in college. Not only should Burrow have his best game as a pro this week, but the Bengals may win their first game in the process.

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Paul Ghiglieri is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Paul, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyGhigs.

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