FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 8
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Below are my picks for Week 8 of the FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) vs TEN – Over 19.2
Throughout his rookie campaign, former Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow has demonstrated a relatively consistent ability to come correct when shootouts present themselves. With Tennessee ranking 26th and 30th in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, respectively, the opportunity is certainly there for Burrow to sling the pill around the yard against the AFC South leaders. It’s fair to assume that the Titans will have little to no problem putting points on the board against a Bengals defense that respectively ranks 25th and 28th in passing yards and rushing yards allowed. Burrow will likely have garbage time on his side as well in this one.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) @ DEN – Over 18.7
Herbert has easily exceeded this modest projection in four of five starts so far, so I’m not going to beat a dead horse with this one. Herbert has solidified himself as a full-blown star in the NFL, quickly forcing his name on the list alongside Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen as the present and future faces of the NFL. Do yourself a favor. Take out your sledgehammer and put a hurtin’ on the over for Herbert against the Broncos.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) @ CIN – Over 20.1
As I mentioned in the Burrow bit, the lowly Bengals currently rank 28th across the NFL in rushing yards allowed. Despite the recent loss of All-Pro left tackle Taylor Lewan, this is music to Henry fantasy managers everywhere. In a game that will likely find itself in garbage time sooner rather than later, King Henry goes for triple-digit scrimmage yards and multiple scores. Despite the lofty projection, I’m taking the over.
D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) vs IND – Under 10.9
It’s been encouraging to see the Lions reallocate their backfield workload in favor of the second-round rookie running back in D’Andre Swift. After getting double-digit touches just one time across his first four games, Swift has gotten 18 and 14 touches over the past two weeks since coming off the bye. With the increased workload, Swift has benefited from feasting on some of the league’s worst pair of ball clubs in Jacksonville and Atlanta. The Colts’ defensive front presents a different challenge this week for Swift, ranking third across the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed, while also ranking fourth in yards per carry allowed. Swift will continue to be a nice fantasy asset the rest of the way, but don’t expect much in Week 8 against the Colts.
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) @ CLE – Under 11.5
Similar to Swift, fellow former SEC running back Josh Jacobs draws a tough matchup in Week 8, going up against a Cleveland Browns defense that is a league leader in rushing defense. Since Cleveland ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed and sixth in yards per carry allowed, Jacobs will have his work cut out for him. When you account for his less than stellar usage in the Raiders’ passing game, this projection feels like somewhat of a big ask. The over here is certainly not out of the question; he’ll just need to cross pay dirt a time or two in order to achieve it.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA) vs SF – Over 14.2
Even though Metcalf is coming off what was easily his worst statistical output of the season in Week 7 against the Arizona Cardinals, the second year Mini-T.O. out of Ole Miss still made his fingerprints all over the Sunday Night Football contest. By now, we’ve all seen the Herculean effort that Metcalf put forth in sprinting over 100 yards to prevent a Budda Baker pick-six for the primetime audience. In that same game, Metcalf had a game-winning screen pass get called back in overtime after David Moore got caught with a holding penalty out on the perimeter. With Seattle coming off its first defeat of the year, expect Metcalf and this Seahawks passing attack to bounce back in a big way, even though the 49ers rank fourth in passing yards allowed and third in passing touchdowns allowed. Chalk this one up as yet another patented Something’s Gotta Give matchup.
Amari Cooper (WR – DAL) @ PHI – Under 12.0
Hopefully the folks listened last week regarding this Dallas Cowboys offense. No Dak Prescott, no Andy Dalton, and missing three starters across the offensive line, the Cowboys that the fantasy community fell head over heels for back in September is nonexistent. Despite having garbage-time success against Arizona and Washington with Dalton, I’m not putting my money on Cooper to hit this projection with seventh-round rookie quarterback Ben “Not So Gucci” DiNucci. We’ve reached garbage bags over the heads of Cowboys fans inside Jerry’s World status, ladies and gentlemen.
Travis Fulgham (WR – PHI) vs DAL – Over 11.3
Is Travis Fulgham a starting wide receiver for the Philadelphia Eagles? Check.
Is Fulgham facing the league’s worst defense in Week 8? Check.
Is Mike Nolan still the defensive coordinator of the aforementioned league’s worst defense? Check.
Sometimes, the simplest solution can be found right under our nose. Don’t waste your time overanalyzing this. Take the over here with Fulgham matching up against this embarrassing Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in points allowed.
Adam Thielen (WR – MIN) @ GB – Over 14.0
Did somebody mention garbage time? Even though Mike Zimmer had an extra week to prepare for the NFC North leaders, his defense has no shot whatsoever in slowing down this same Packers offense that absolutely torched his unit in Week 1 inside U.S. Bank Stadium. As a Minneapolis native, I’m crossing my fingers that the Packers can do me and all the other Skoldiers a solid by beating the brakes off the Vikings in Week 8 in order to help expedite this long-overdue rebuild. Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman need to go. Earlier this week, I wrote about how it’d be in the best interest of the Vikings to reunite rookie phenom wide receiver Justin Jefferson with his old LSU position coach and current Carolina Panthers offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out, Zim and Spielman. While we’re at it, let’s go ahead and give Louis Riddick a call to replace Spielman as the Vikings GM.
Noah Fant (TE – DEN) vs LAC – Over 8.2
Even though Fant hasn’t achieved this projection since Week 2, I’m expecting a fairly high-scoring matchup between the Chargers and Broncos. With Drew Lock back at quarterback for Denver, Fant finds the end zone as the Broncos have no choice but to try and keep up with Herbert and the Chargers’ high-flying offense.
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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, follow him @RobBob17.