Welcome to Feast or Famine! Each week, I’ll break down the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
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Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford (DET)
Highest rank: QB5. Lowest Rank: QB15.
Stafford has yet to score under 16 PPG this season. The Jaguars have allowed 15 or more PPG to five straight quarterbacks. The Lions are also coming fresh off a bye week. I think it’s about as safe as anything to say that Stafford should score 15 points at worst, and 25 is a very real possibility. He’s also still available in over 25% of Yahoo! leagues.
Prediction: FEAST
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR)
Highest rank: QB10. Lowest Rank: QB23.
Last week, I had Brady in this section, and he posted his second-lowest score of the season. The Bears are allowing the fewest points to quarterbacks this season and it’s been a winning strategy to fade whoever plays against them. I don’t see this trend slowing down anytime soon.
Prediction: FAMINE
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (GB)
Highest rank: RB2. Lowest Rank: RB34.
I could spend a long time telling you that the Bucs are an extreme pass-funnel defense. I could tell you they are allowing a league-worst 2.7 YPC to running backs. I could tell you they blitz on 41% of plays for third-highest in the league. But this one is pretty simple: every time we bet against Aaron Jones, he proves us wrong. The matchup is indeed terrible, but all Aaron Jones does is score points as the focal point of the league’s highest-scoring offense. You aren’t sitting the RB4 on the season, so don’t start now.
Prediction: FEAST
Honorable Mention Feast: D’Andre Swift (DET), Phillip Lindsay (DEN)
Jerick McKinnon (SF)
Highest rank: RB19. Lowest Rank: RB43.
Mostert’s return marked the end of McKinnon, as the latter was relegated to only three touches in the blowout loss to the Dolphins. This is even lower than his previous timeshare when both were on the field, but he was making up for it with breakout runs and a score per game. He’s an extremely volatile starter going forward.
Quick RB snap notes:
After a 92% snap share in week 4, Jerick McKinnon nose dived to 25% upon Raheem Mostert's return.
Travis Homer has increased his snap % for 4 straight weeks.
Chase Edmonds has trended up while Kenyan Drake is trending down.. to a week 5 near 60/40 split
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) October 13, 2020
Prediction: FAMINE
Honorable Mention Famine: Antonio Gibson (WAS), Damien Harris (NE)
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (GB)
Highest rank: WR2. Lowest Rank: WR111.
Adams felt he was healthy enough to play before the bye week, and he expressed his frustration through a since-deleted Tweet. Now with two weeks of recovery time, and for all the reasons posted under Aaron Jones’ blurb (Tampa Bay’s league-leading pass-funnel defense), you simply can’t afford to fade him.
Prediction: FEAST
Honorable Mention Feast: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT), Jamison Crowder (NYJ)
D.J. Moore (CAR)
Highest rank: WR11. Lowest Rank: WR46.
People will be wearing rose-colored glasses after Moore blew up against the Falcons’ third-string secondary, and they’re in for a rude awakening against the Bears’ defense that has allowed the second-fewest points to the position. They have shut down everyone besides Mike Evans this year, so don’t get caught up in recency bias; that said, I love Moore as a rest-of-season asset.
Prediction: FAMINE
Honorable Mention Famine: Jerry Jeudy (DEN), Preston Williams (MIA)
Tight Ends
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN)
Highest rank: TE12. Lowest Rank: TE32.
Coming off his first relevant action of the year, Smith now gets a completely desolate Atlanta secondary in the midst of a coaching change. It’s somewhat hard picking between who will go off, but any receiving option could be the one. With Dalvin Cook’s status up in the air and a very beatable pass defense, it could be worth taking a flier on Smith.
Prediction: FEAST
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.