Have you ever looked back on your draft and asked yourself, “What was I thinking?”
You almost certainly have. I know I’ve done it this year, but hey — don’t beat yourself up. Instead, you should view your mistakes as opportunities to improve your process. By studying the players who have most exceeded (or failed to exceed) expectations, we can get a sense of the variables that matter in evaluating player performance. This year was different than most due to the lack of a preseason, but there are still valuable lessons buried in the data.
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Biggest Risers Compared to Preseason ADP
These guys have all outperformed their expectations. The list includes a few young workhorses, talented receivers who had seen inconsistent volume last season, and two receivers on new teams. They’re all good measuring sticks for what to look for when identifying breakout players before next season’s drafts.
1. Josh Jacobs (ADP #15 to ECR #9) — stud running back, tons of volume, and the passing-game concerns proved premature.
2. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP #16.3 to ECR #6) — his ADP fluctuated wildly, but CEH was locked into tons of volume, so he shouldn’t have gone this late.
3. Aaron Jones (ADP #17.7 to ECR #5.7) — somehow, not even negative touchdown regression can mess with Jones.
4. Amari Cooper (ADP #32.7 to ECR #17.3) — After a boom-or-bust 2019, Cooper is finally getting the volume needed to be a consistent WR1.
5. Calvin Ridley (ADP #42.3 to ECR #14.3) — I told you so. Ridley has put everything together so far in 2020.
6. Jonathan Taylor (ADP #46.3 to ECR #14.3) — it took an injury to Marlon Mack, but Taylor is now the clear-cut lead back in Indy.
7. D.K. Metcalf (ADP #53.5 to ECR #26.3) — he’s surpassed Tyler Lockett in fantasy production with his long-range looks.
8. Stefon Diggs (ADP #60.3 to ECR #29.7) — Diggs has adapted to his new team fantastically, and Josh Allen may have turned a corner.
9. Kareem Hunt (ADP #61 to ECR #14) — Chubb’s injury gives Hunt a boost, but he was looking great even before Chubb went down.
10. Antonio Gibson (ADP #141.7 to ECR #51) — Adrian Peterson‘s late release gave Gibson control of this backfield. Good call from David Zach.
11. Robby Anderson (ADP #129 to ECR #59.7) — he’s beaten out incumbent WR1 Moore for looks through four weeks.
12. Jonnu Smith (ADP #158.7 to ECR #70) — athleticism equals YAC. Kyle Yates called it back in June.
Biggest Fallers Compared to Preseason ADP
In contrast, almost all of these players have been relative disappointments. I’ve kept out the big names we lost to injury (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, etc.), so making this list required stats-based letdowns. We have a few overhyped running backs, a pair of quarterbacks that went too early, and some aging wide receivers. Taking a look at them may enable you to pinpoint which players you should run from at their ADPs next season.
1. Miles Sanders (ADP #13 to ECR #24) — I warned you all about him back in September — he’s good, not great.
2. Kenyan Drake (ADP #16 to ECR #44.3) — I didn’t like Drake much, either, and Chase Edmonds has limited his passing-down role.
3. Lamar Jackson (ADP #21.3 to ECR #43.3) — Jackson scored at an absurd clip in 2019, and he’s slowed down since then.
4. Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP #29.7 to ECR #41) — there just isn’t enough passing volume for Beckham to be a WR1 anymore.
5. D.J. Moore (ADP #30 to ECR #48.3) — this one caught me off guard, but Anderson has been better with Teddy Bridgewater.
6. Zach Ertz (ADP #37.7 to ECR #75.3) — another surprise, as Ertz’s high-volume role hasn’t translated into fantasy utility.
7. Deshaun Watson (ADP #57.3 to ECR #77.7) — don’t take quarterbacks on bad teams early.
8. T.Y. Hilton (ADP #57.5 to ECR #103.7) — Hilton has fallen off a cliff with Philip Rivers, and he’s nearing 31 years old.
9. Mark Ingram (ADP #59 to ECR #81.7) — Ingram’s workload has been eaten into by Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
10. A.J. Green (ADP #69.3 to ECR #105.3) — he is still getting lots of targets and air yards, but the 32-year-old isn’t catching passes.
11. Evan Engram (ADP #70.7 to ECR #134.3) — Engram is catching just barely half of his passes, and Daniel Jones has looked terrible.
12. Marvin Jones (ADP #87 to ECR #136.3) — a big regression candidate after a lucky 2019 season.
Consensus Rest of Season Rankins
The numbers above were generated from FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings for the rest of the season. You can view the full list below.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
