Monkey Knife Fight Advice: Week 7 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing entrants in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the ‘More or Less’ contests. In these contests, you can choose whether a player will fall above or below totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals, and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at some of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 6. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
If you have yet to sign up for Monkey Knife Fight, be sure to take advantage of the $10 free play they are offering. Simply sign up through this link, and enter the promo code “GET10FREE”, and enjoy your first contest on your friends at FantasyPros and Monkey Knife Fight.
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC): 246.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert has been as good as many expected him to be had he declared for the 2019 NFL Draft. He lost some of his hype following a senior season in which he seemingly plateaued, but has looked the part of someone discussed as a potential number one overall pick this season.
He’s averaged 298.8 passing yards per game with his lone sub 290 passing yard effort coming last week in his toughest outing of the season. He still threw for 264 yards and four touchdowns. Herbert has averaged an elite level 8.5 yards per attempt and has his easiest matchup to date in Week 7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars sport the seventh weakest pass defense in terms of total yardage, allowing 270.7 passing yards per game. So why has this line been posted so low at MonkeyKnifeFight? The only potential concern is gameflow limiting Herbert’s need to pass. In each of his four starts this season, the Chargers have lost. With them opening as favorites for their contest against Jacksonville there could be some trepidation regarding how prolific he will be.
The Chargers were not trailing for the entire game in any game but their loss to the Panthers, so Herbert is likely going to rack up yards regardless of gamescript. He has a beautiful deep ball that he has used to hit his starters and no name backups alike. There is a risk he throws for less than 247 passing yards, but the smart money is on him throwing for more. Click ‘More’ for Herbert for Week 7.
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA): 80.5 receiving yards
This feels like the D.K. Metcalf bonus round. Despite averaging 99.2 receiving yards per game (second in the NFL), Metcalf is listed at just 80.5 for Week 7 at MonkeyKnifeFight. Yes, as fantasy players we all know the Cardinals pass defense has been stingy this season, but we are also aware of the quality of opponents (or lack thereof) that they have faced thus far on the campaign.
Metcalf is slated to spend some of the night battling elite corner Patrick Peterson. Peterson has held opponents to a 50 percent catch rate and a five year low 5.8 yards per target. Of course, opponents have something to do with this sample, but the number is still notable. Per SIS, Peterson’s deserved catch rate is up at 88.2 percent.
The Cardinals 2019 second round pick Byron Murphy has also been highly impressive. He has actually been stingier than Peterson this season with a 48.5 completion percentage against, and a 78.3 percent deserved catch rate.
The rub here is that Metcalf is a low efficient receiver anyways as he hovers around the 56-58 percent mark for his career (56.4 heading into Week 7), so facing corners who have been smothering this season would be more of an issue for a high efficiency receiver like teammate Tyler Lockett.
We all know Metcalf can hit this goal in just a handful of receptions, perhaps as low as one or two. With that, and his 99.2 receiving yards per game in mind, click ‘More’ for Metcalf for Week 7.
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