StatHero NFL Lineup Advice: Week 7
If you haven’t heard of StatHero yet, you will soon. By combining weekly lineup-based competition with the structure of a survivor pool, the site offers multiple weeks of value for one entry fee.
How does it work? Each week, you’ll pick an NFL team and build a DFS lineup from players on their roster. You’ll choose one non-quarterback “MVP” to earn double points, a quarterback, three more skill-position players, and in the first week of each contest, a kicker. Your lineup just has to outscore StatHero’s lineup for you to “survive” and advance on to the next week — and you’ll win a payout in the process.
Aggressive Lineup: Seattle Seahawks
As in a traditional survivor pool, you can only pick each team once. But since you’re guaranteed a payout if you survive past the first week, it makes sense to be aggressive early on to maximize your chances of winning something. I featured the Chiefs in this spot last week, and I’ll roll with the Seahawks this time out. Seattle’s contest with Arizona is projected for 56 total points, and Seattle is expected to put up 29.75 of them. That’s below their current points per game average (33.8). The high-scoring nature of this game makes it a fantastic one to target on StatHero.
If you do roll with the Seahawks, here’s the best way to structure your lineup:
MVP: D.K. Metcalf
This pick is an easy one — Metcalf just needs to score one long-range touchdown in this slot to score you a treasure trove of points through StatHero’s distance bonuses. All but one of Metcalf’s touchdowns would’ve given you a bonus this season, as he’s scored from 13, 54, 29, 13, and 6 yards out. Metcalf should have had another score (a 63-yarder, no less) but a great defensive play from Trevon Diggs turned it into a touchback. Almost all of Metcalf’s targets come far downfield (he sports an aDOT of 16.4). In what should be a shootout, Metcalf is a safe bet to make a big play or two.
QB: Russell Wilson
FLEX A: Tyler Lockett
While Metcalf is a high-upside deep threat, Lockett is a high-floor security blanket that deserves a spot in your lineup. He averages 7.6 targets per game, and he even hit double-digits back in Week 3. Although the talented receiver has had a pair of down weeks since then, I’m expecting him to right the ship this time out. Lockett was leading this team in targets before last week, and his elite catch rate (78.9%) gives him a reliable floor.
FLEX B: Chris Carson
This one is another no-brainer. Not only is Carson the clear workhorse on the ground, but he has also caught the third-most passes (21) in this offense, just one below Metcalf. In StatHero’s PPR scoring, that’s incredibly valuable. Carson is averaging 16.4 touches per game and 5.23 yards per touch, so even an average day out of him should net you a solid number of fantasy points. Carson also leads the team in red-zone catches (4), which he’s turned into three scores.
FLEX C: Greg Olsen
Your last spot should go to either Olsen or David Moore. But how do you decide which? StatHero’s 1.5 PPR for tight ends helps Olsen’s case, but the veteran tight end is averaging only three catches and 28 yards per game. On the other hand, Moore is averaging even less volume — he’s earning just two catches and 34.6 yards per game. Moore has caught two touchdown passes to Olsen’s one, although Olsen’s five targets inside the 20 outnumber Moore’s three. Both Moore and Olsen have been held to one or fewer catches twice this season.
It’s close, but Olsen’s tight end bonus points and additional red-zone volume make him the safer play. That said, Moore remains a decent upside pick.
Contrarian Lineup: Atlanta Falcons
I featured the Lions in this spot last week, and unfortunately, that didn’t work out very well. Although the Lions dropped 34 points on the Jaguars, two of those touchdowns came from D’Andre Swift, someone I had left out of the lineup. So this week, I’ll recommend their opponent: the Atlanta Falcons. With a projected point total of 55, sportsbooks are expecting Atlanta to notch 26.25 of those points, which is a bit below their current points per game average (27.7).
The Falcons are a great team to target since they’re a high-scoring offense with few moving parts to choose between. Meanwhile, the Lions rank eighth-worst in PPR points allowed to wide receivers (40.7), sixth-worst against running backs (30.6), and second-best against tight ends (6.3).
MVP: Calvin Ridley
With the Falcons, we’re faced with quite the dilemma at MVP: Ridley or Jones? Yes, Jones out-produced Ridley in every category last week, but that doesn’t mean he will do so again. Ridley has consistently out-produced Jones in the red-zone this season — he has nine targets inside the 20-yard line to Jones’ four. He also has five targets inside the 10-yard line to Jones’ one. Yes, Jones missed a lot of time with an injury, but if we credit him for three games (he’s played in four, but because he left early twice, this number is better for comparing him to Ridley’s six games) and divide Ridley’s numbers in half, he’s still getting out-played in the red-zone (20: 4.5 to 4; 10: 2.5 to 1).
You need your MVP to score touchdowns, and Ridley is the safer bet to find paydirt.
QB: Matt Ryan
FLEX A: Julio Jones
Even though he shouldn’t be your MVP, Jones has to be in your lineup. In the two games he played to completion, Jones earned 10 targets, and you can’t ignore that volume. The only possible argument against Jones is that there’s a chance he re-injures his hamstring and misses some plays, but he looked healthy last week, so I would confidently roll him out this week.
FLEX B: Todd Gurley
When a team has a workhorse running back, you take him. That’s what we’ll do with Gurley against the Lions this week. Gurley has the seventh-most carries thus far this season (99), ranks second for carries inside the 20-yard line (24), and is tied for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (5). The Lions’ rushing defense leaves a lot to be desired, and Gurley is a safe bet to produce against them.
FLEX C: Russell Gage
It’s between Gage and Hayden Hurst for the last spot in this lineup. Yes, Detroit has done a great job at limiting opposing tight ends so far, but three of their games came against nobodies (Week 3: Cardinals and Dan Arnold, Week 4: Saints without Jared Cook, Week 5: Jaguars and an injured Tyler Eifert), and they gave up touchdowns to the position in the other two (Week 1: Bears and Jimmy Graham, Week 2: Packers and Robert Tonyan).
But even though Detroit’s statistically strong play against tight ends feels a little flukish, I still want to roll with Gage. The slot receiver has out-targeted Hurst 36-32, and he’s even out-targeting him inside the 20-yard line 5-3.
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