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Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 4 (2020)

Oct 2, 2020

Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups. 

Last week was a legendary week on Ball Street. Among my Week 3 Upside Picks were Russell Wilson (QB2, 36.8 FanDuel points), Tyler Lockett (WR1, 32.5 points), and Alvin Kamara (RB1, 38.2 points). My “All-Upside” Lineup put up 181 FanDuel points, so if you read this column before building your roster, your pockets are a little heavier heading into Week 4.

However, if you missed out on Ball Street’s Week 3 plays, don’t fret. We’re back for Week 4 with a handful of players primed for blowup performances.

Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 4 DFS lineups.

Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 4. 

Each position group is broken down as follows: 

Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag

Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks

Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer

*Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players

Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 4 and beyond!

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Quarterbacks

Blue Chips:

Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. Miami ($9,000)Coming off his third straight 30-plus fantasy point week, Russ will continue cooking against a Dolphins defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. 

Mid-Caps:

Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. Atlanta ($8,000) — Rodgers and the Packers sport a league-high implied point total of 32.25 heading into a matchup with the Falcons, who have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks through three weeks.

Penny Stocks:

Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) vs. Seattle ($7,100) — Fresh off a 24-fantasy point outing in Week 3, Fitzpatrick will be playing catch-up with the Seahawks, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Running Backs

Blue Chips:

Aaron Jones (GB) vs. Atlanta ($8,400) — Jones will be heavily relied on in the passing game in a likely shootout where the Packers could be without wide receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.

Mid-Caps:

Darrell Henderson (LAR) vs. New York Giants ($6,400) — I expect Henderson to notch his third-straight 120-yard performance against a Giants run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league.

Penny Stocks:

David Montgomery (CHI) vs. Indianapolis ($5,800) — Montgomery faces a tough matchup against the Colts, but he figures to see a heavy workload with running back Tarik Cohen out for the season. 

Wide Receivers

Blue Chips:

Calvin Ridley (ATL) vs. Green Bay ($8,100) — In a potential shootout boasting a league-high over/under of 57.5 points, I want shares of the explosive Ridley as Matt Ryan’s top target in the passing game.

Mid-Caps:

Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs. Las Vegas ($7,000) — Diggs found his perfect landing spot with Josh Allen’s Bills, and he’ll continue to put up great numbers in a game where sportsbooks expect Buffalo to score 28 points.

Penny Stocks:

Michael Gallup (DAL) vs. Cleveland ($5,900) — Coming off a 22.8-point Week 3, Gallup carries major upside against the Browns, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season.

Tight Ends

Blue Chips:

Darren Waller (LV) vs. Buffalo ($6,700) — Waller should be peppered with targets as Derek Carr won’t have his top two wide receivers against the Bills.

Mid-Caps:

*Mike Gesicki (MIA) vs. Seattle ($5,700) — Gesicki figures to see plenty of action in the slot as the Dolphins play catch-up with the Seahawks, who have given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. *Gesicki is this week’s cash cow. Get him in your lineups.

Penny Stocks:

Logan Thomas (WAS) vs. Baltimore ($4,900) — Thomas, who has seen 24 targets through three games, is a lock for several more in a game where the Football Team will be playing from behind. 

Ball Street’s Week 3 All-Upside Lineup

  • QB – Russell Wilson vs. Miami ($9,000) 
  • RB – Aaron Jones vs. Atlanta ($8,400) 
  • RB – Darrell Henderson vs. New York Giants ($6,400) 
  • WR – Calvin Ridley vs. Green Bay ($8,100) 
  • WR – Stefon Diggs vs. Las Vegas ($7,000) 
  • WR – Michael Gallup vs. Cleveland ($5,900) 
  • TE – Mike Gesicki vs. Seattle ($5,700) 
  • FLEX – David Montgomery vs. Indianapolis ($5,800) 
  • DEF – Houston DEF vs. Minnesota ($3,700)

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Stephen Krukpa is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Stephen, check out his archive or follow him @ballstreetff.

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