Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Week 5 was a fantastic week for my “Mid-Cap” upside plays. Deshaun Watson (QB6, 26.86 FanDuel points), D.K. Metcalf (WR6, 24.3), and Jonnu Smith (TE2, 18.5) all put up strong numbers, cashing in on their underpriced upside. Additionally, Russell Wilson (QB7, 25.48) and Darren Waller (TE4, 13.3) lived up to their “Blue-Chip” designations despite not having monster performances. On the other hand, two of my three wide receiver picks fell completely flat. Amari Cooper (WR79, 3.1) and Justin Jefferson (WR72, 3.8) were lineup-destroyers who failed to deliver in smash spots. Additionally, none of my running backs had the week-winning performances I was expecting from them. All in all, I’d say Week 5 was a mixed bag on Ball Street. However, there is a lot to be excited about heading into a Week 6 slate ripe with underpriced upside.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 6 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 6.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 6 and beyond!
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Quarterbacks
Blue Chip:
Josh Allen (BUF) vs. Kansas City ($8,600): Fantasy’s QB4 should put up massive numbers in a barnburner with the Chiefs sporting a league-high over/under of 57.5 points.
Mid-Cap:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) vs. New York Jets ($7,400): Fresh off a QB3, 27.6-point Week 5 performance, Fitzpatrick should continue to feast against a middle of the pack Jets defense.
Penny Stock:
Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs. Atlanta ($7,100): I’m starting every Vikings player I can in this shootout with the Falcons, who have given up a league-high 30.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Blue Chip:
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. Houston ($9,000): Hot off a two-touchdown performance in Week 5, I expect Henry to have a monster day against a Texans defense that yields the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Mid-Cap:
*Alexander Mattison (MIN) vs. Atlanta ($7,000): Among the league’s most talented backup running backs, Mattison should see the vast majority of Minnesota’s running back touches in a game where the Vikings are projected to score 29.25 points, second only to the Chiefs. *Mattison is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups.
Penny Stock:
David Montgomery (CHI) vs. Carolina ($5,900): Montgomery offers massive upside as the Bears’ bell-cow running back (seven catches in Week 5) against a Panthers defense that gives up an average of 27.4 fantasy points to the position.
Wide Receivers
Blue Chip:
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) vs. Dallas ($8,800): Hopkins should dominate against a Cowboys defense that gives up a whopping 32.6 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, second-worst in the league.
Mid-Cap:
Stefon Diggs (BUF) vs. Kansas City ($7,100): I love the Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs stack in what should be a fun, high-scoring matchup in which Buffalo will need to air the ball out in order to keep up with Mahomes and company.
Penny Stock:
Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. Atlanta ($5,900): Although he burned me last week, the flourishing rookie offers week-winning upside at a bargain against a vulnerable Falcons defense in what should be a high-scoring matchup.
Tight Ends
Blue Chip:
Travis Kelce (KC) vs. Buffalo ($7,900): Mahomes’ top target is worth every penny this week in a shootout where the Chiefs are expected to put up a league-high 30 points.
Mid-Cap:
Mike Gesicki (MIA) vs. New York Jets ($5,600): Coming off a five-catch, 91-yard performance, the ultra-athletic Gesicki gets a Jets defense that has been just average against opposing tight ends.
Penny Stock:
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) vs. Atlanta ($4,300): A risky dart throw with tantalizing upside, Irv Smith Jr. is coming off a season-high 80 yards and faces a Falcons defense giving up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Ball Street’s Week 2 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Josh Allen ($8,600)
- RB – Derrick Henry ($9,000)
- RB – Alexander Mattison ($7,000)
- WR – DeAndre Hopkins ($8,800)
- WR – Stefon Diggs ($7,100)
- WR – Justin Jefferson ($5,900)
- TE – Irv Smith Jr. ($4,300)
- FLEX – David Montgomery ($5,900)
- DEF – Cincinnati ($3,300)
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Stephen Krupka is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Stephen, check out his archive or follow him @ballstreetff.
