Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Last week, I wrote about why Derrick Henry (RB1, 39.4 FanDuel points) and Justin Jefferson (WR1, 35.1) were must-starts in FanDuel lineups due to their blowup potential in plus matchups. Additionally, I discussed why Travis Kelce (TE4, 19 points) was a fantastic upside play despite his “Blue Chip” price tag. Finally, I talked about Kirk Cousins (QB7, 26.72) as a great “Penny Stock” pick who offered boom ability at a bargain. While these players all cashed in on their underpriced upside, I had my fair share of misses as well. Alexander Mattison (RB45, 3.5) was unexpectedly game-scripted out of Minnesota’s pass-heavy comeback effort. Josh Allen (QB17, 16.08) looked like the Josh Allen of old. And lastly, Mike Gesicki (TE46, 0 points) hit us with a goose egg. Overall, however, my Week 6 wins overshadowed the duds, and I’m looking forward to a repeat performance on Ball Street in Week 7.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 7 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on Ball Street. First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 7.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 7 and beyond!
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Quarterbacks
Blue Chip:
Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. Seattle ($8,400): Murray, who is averaging over 27 FanDuel points per game, faces a porous Seahawks defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Mid-Cap:
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Tennessee ($7,400): Roethlisberger is primed for a breakout performance this season, as his talented and young receiving corps will be back at full health against a Titans defense that gave up 32 FanDuel points to Deshaun Watson last week.
Penny Stock:
Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. Atlanta ($7,300): Stafford, who has been limited to 31 passing attempts in three straight games, should shatter that mark in a shootout with a Falcons defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Blue Chip:
Aaron Jones (GB) vs. Houston ($8,500): The Packers’ jack of all trades will have plenty of scoring opportunities both on the ground and through the air in a barnburner that sports an over/under of 57.5.
Mid-Cap:
James Conner (PIT) vs. Tennessee ($7,200): Conner, who has posted three 100-yard games in his last four outings, should eclipse the century mark and then some against a Titans defense that ranks in the bottom-third against running backs.
Penny Stock:
D’Andre Swift (DET) vs. Atlanta ($6,100): Fresh off an overall RB3, 25.8 FanDuel-point finish, I like Swift to see a heavy workload out of the backfield in a matchup with the Falcons that boasts a 55-point over/under.
Wide Receivers
Blue Chip:
Davante Adams (GB) vs. Houston ($8,900): Aaron Rodgers’ go-to target is all but guaranteed to go off in a shootout with the Texans, who have surrendered 26.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Mid-Cap:
A.J. Brown (TEN) vs. Pittsburgh ($6,800): Brown, who has three touchdowns in three games played this season, should add to his total against a Steelers defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Penny Stock:
*Christian Kirk (ARI) vs. Seattle ($5,400): I love Kirk as an inexpensive piece of the Cardinals’ passing attack in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring affair with the Seahawks. *Kirk is this week’s Cash Cow – get him in your lineups!
Tight Ends
Blue Chip:
Darren Waller (LV) vs. Tampa Bay ($6,800): Waller, who has seen 18 targets over his last two games, should see another heavy dose of looks in what Vegas projects to be a shootout with the Buccaneers.
Mid-Cap:
Noah Fant (DEN) vs. Kansas City ($6,000): I love Fant’s underpriced upside, as the Broncos will be forced into a pass-heavy game script to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and company.
Penny Stock:
Austin Hooper (CLE) vs. Cincinnatti ($5,400): Hooper, who has five receptions in three straight games, takes on a Bengals defense that gives up 10.4 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Ball Street’s Week 7 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Kyler Murray ($8,400)
- RB – Aaron Jones ($8,500)
- RB – James Conner ($7,200)
- WR – Davante Adams ($8,900)
- WR – A.J. Brown ($6,800)
- WR – Christian Kirk ($5,400)
- TE – Austin Hooper ($5,400)
- FLEX – D’Andre Swift ($6,100)
- DEF – New York Jets ($3,000)
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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Stephen Krupka is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Stephen, check out his archive or follow him @ballstreetff.
