Greetings from quarantine!
No, I don’t have COVID-19. At least I don’t think I do.
But I did attend a closer-than-socially-distant golf outing in the foothills of Allegany State Park over the weekend. And since my girlfriend has a pre-existing health condition, I’ve taken my talents out of our apartment and into an Airbnb for the next week or so.
Anyway, no fever from me as of yet. But you know who is hot? A handful of under-the-radar NFL players.
Whose temperature is on the rise? What’s the prognosis for his future production? The results await in this Week 4 Heat Index.
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Tim Patrick (WR – DEN)
It’s four weeks ago. Your future self comes to you and says, “Brett Rypien will connect with Tim Patrick for 100-plus yards and a touchdown on Thursday Night Football.” You blink twice and swallow hard. Who? What?
Yeah, the NFL moves at a mile a minute. And in 2020, it seems like anything is possible (including having conversations with your future self, apparently).
So when Tim Patrick caught six of seven targets for 113 yards and a score in Week 4, it was surprising for maybe five seconds or so. After that, you remembered that, oh yeah, the Denver Broncos are absolutely decimated by injuries. With key pass-catchers out of commission, Tim Patrick ran wild on the New York Jets secondary.
Patrick, an undrafted free agent in 2017, displayed speed and strength on a contested deep-ball reception early in the game. He showcased savvy route running on his quick seven-yard touchdown catch. He was also elusive, and he found soft spots in the defense while getting behind defenders in space. Yep, he looked sharp. He also benefited from impressive quarterback play from his second-year signal-caller.
With the Broncos physically hurting on offense, Patrick was on the field for 76% of his team’s offensive snaps, more than any other Denver pass catcher. He also dominated a healthy 23% target share.
While Jerry Jeudy is still the bigger name in Denver, positive game scripts could favor Patrick in the next few games against the Patriots, Dolphins, and Chiefs, making him a low-key flex option. After the subsequent bye week, though, we could see K.J. Hamler and Noah Fant return to maximum capacity, eating into Patrick’s future opportunities.
Week 4 Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥
Rest-of-season Heat Index: 🔥🔥
Tre’Quan Smith (WR – NO)
Tre’Quan Smith caught all four of his targets for 54 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints’ come-from-behind victory against the Detroit Lions in Week 4. Playing primarily on the outside, Smith used his 6’2″ frame and 4.49 speed to roast corners, get open, and score points. While Smith saw a considerably smaller target share (16%) than fellow wideout Emmanuel Sanders (36%), he did out snap Sanders 62 to 51.
What does this tell us? It tells us two things: 1) Emmanuel Sanders is the safe and reliable go-to option for Drew Brees, and 2) Tre’Quan Smith is the game-changing playmaker who can break a game wide open. The question is, then, who assumes the bigger role when No. 1 wideout Michael Thomas returns from his high ankle sprain?
Knowing Saints head coach Sean Payton, the offense will continue to spread the ball around to as many players as possible. But as the season wears on, it should be the younger Smith who overtakes the definitive No. 2 wideout role in New Orleans. Look for Smith to flank Thomas when he returns and Sanders to shift to more of a possession receiver out of the slot in the Saints high-octane offense.
Smith, who is owned in just 27% of Yahoo leagues, should be a big-time addition and valuable asset for any fantasy team moving forward.
Week 4 Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥
Rest-of-season Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥
Scotty Miller (WR – TB)
Scotty Miller is not your old stoner buddy from high school. He’s not the funnel-chugging, collar-popping frat boy from your days on campus. He’s not even the boss’s adult son who comes into the office for no other reason than to harass the receptionist. His name may be Scotty Miller, but he is none of those things.
No, Scotty Miller is the next man up in Tampa Bay, and he was good enough to catch five of his seven targets for 83 yards and a touchdown in a Week 4 win against the Los Angeles Chargers. On a day when his quarterback, Tom Brady, threw 46 passes, Miller was targeted seven times, which is just one less target than star wide receiver Mike Evans.
Approximately half of Miller’s yards came on a high-concentration, over-the-shoulder catch in double coverage. Some of the rest were delivered on a wide-open 19-yard strike in a high-scoring affair. Scotty Miller, who is rostered in just 16% of Yahoo leagues, should garner attention from Brady as long as fellow wideout Chris Godwin and tight end O.J. Howard miss time.
Even when Godwin returns, Miller could become a sneaky matchup-dependent DFS play, but he probably can’t be relied on for big games until he has guaranteed a more definitive role in the Bucs’ offense.
Week 4 Heat Index: 🔥🔥
Rest-of-season Heat Index: 🔥🔥
D’Ernest Johnson (RB – CLE)
Good running backs are hard to find. These days, it’s rare to be rostering two stud running backs. Given the number of injuries to ball carriers this season, many fantasy football managers are working with at least one waiver wire running back on their roster. This ought to be the case with D’Ernest Johnson after Nick Chubb’s recent knee injury.
In Week 4, Johnson stepped into a gun show in Dallas, and he ran the ball 13 times for 95 yards in an impressive road win against the Cowboys. While Kareem Hunt is also dealing with some tweaks of his own, Johnson should assume a similar number of touches for as long as Chubb is out. That will make Johnson a high-priority waiver wire acquisition heading into Week 5, but will he be worth rostering down the stretch?
It’s possible. The Cleveland running backs are both banged up, so even when Chubb returns, how long can we expect Hunt to last? It’s never wise (or decent) to bank on an injury to a football player, but it is important to know when a player’s health becomes a concern. As long as Chubb and Hunt are vulnerable, Johnson will be worth rostering.
I’m viewing Johnson as a quick fix with lottery-ticket potential. Pick him up now, start him while you can, and stash him for later.
Week 4 Heat Index: 🔥🔥
Rest-of-season Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥
Laviska Shenault (WR – JAC)
Has Laviska Shenault really not made the Heat Index yet this season? That changes now.
The Jaguars’ electric wide receiver has been lining up all over the field in his rookie season, which is important because it demonstrates trust from his coaching staff. In Week 4, Shenault had his most productive day as a pro, as he reeled in five of his six targets for 86 yards in a losing effort against the Cincinnati Bengals.
While Jags No. 1 receiver D.J. Chark led the charge with the most targets (9) and snaps (58) on the team, Shenault is seeing his opportunities grow from week to week. His dual-threat as a rusher gives him more value than other flex-worthy free agents, such as Cole Beasley and Hunter Renfrow (in many cases).
Rostered in just 24% of Yahoo leagues, Shenault is criminally undervalued in fantasy football. That won’t last long. Granted, there are a ton of high performing receivers to fill into flex spots in most leagues. But as fantasy managers scramble to stock up on running back depth, they shouldn’t lose sight of special players like Shenault.
Week 4 Heat Index: 🔥🔥
Rest-of-season Heat Index: 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Okay, so my fever hasn’t yet hit, but the headache is setting in. I guess that means we’re done here. Feel free to wish me well on Twitter or, truer to Twitter form, go ahead and call me an idiot. It’s your call! Until then, good night and good luck.
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Jim Colombo is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @WideRightNBlue.
