Week 8 NFL DFS Stacking Advice (2020)
When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Tennessee at Cincinnati (Over/Under 54.5)
- Tennessee Team Total: 30.25
- Cincinnati Team Total: 24.25
- Minnesota at Green Bay (Over/Under 54.0)
- Green Bay Team Total: 30.25
- Minnesota Team Total: 23.75
- San Francisco at Seattle (Over/Under 54.0)
- Seattle Team Total: 28.5
- San Francisco Team Total: 25.5
- Las Vegas at Cleveland (Over/Under 53.5)
- Cleveland Team Total: 28.0
- Las Vegas Team Total: 25.5
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): $7,600 / Tyler Boyd (WR – CIN): $6,400
Despite a non-traditional offseason and challenges related to Covid-19, rookie QB Joe Burrow has been extremely impressive to start his NFL career. While he was the first overall pick, he has still managed to exceed lofty expectations through the first seven games. He finally saw some positive regression in the TD department, as he tossed three passing scores to go along with 406 passing yards in Week 7. Burrow also added 34 rushing yards and a QB-sneak TD on his way to 34.64 FanDuel fantasy points.
The Bengals’ matchup with the Titans has the highest over/under of the main slate, and Cincinnati has a respectable implied team total of 24.25 points. The Titans allowed 268 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger in a Week 7 game that saw the Steelers get up early and put on the brakes with their passing attack. The week prior, the Titans allowed 335 passing yards and four passing TDs to Deshaun Watson.
Expect the Bengals to throw on the Titans, as head coach Zac Taylor has shown confidence in his rookie QB. Burrow has yet to attempt fewer than 30 passes in a game this season. His favorite weapon on offense, WR Tyler Boyd, has seen 61 targets through seven games. That mark is good for eighth-best in the NFL among wide receivers.
Boyd hauled in 11 of 13 targets for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Bengals’ Week 7 shootout loss to the Browns. If setting multiple stacks with Burrow, veteran WR A.J. Green ($5,800) and rookie WR Tee Higgins ($6,000) are great plays as well. On the Titans’ side, we can bring it back to the running game with RB Derrick Henry ($9,500), who continues to see volume and will have a relatively soft matchup against a weak Bengals defense. Otherwise, the lone Titans pass-catcher I would combine with Bengals stacks would be WR A.J. Brown ($7,500).
Derek Carr (QB – LVR): $7,300 / Darren Waller (TE – LVR): $6,800
Entering 2020 with questions about his job security, Derek Carr has silenced the doubters thus far with an impressive start to the season. He is averaging 287 passing yards per game and has 13 TDs to just two interceptions in six games. Carr has scored 20+ FanDuel points in his last three starts, which is all the more impressive since the two most recent games were at Kansas City and home against a tough Tampa Bay defense.
The Raiders’ passing game has a much softer matchup for their Week 8 contest at Cleveland. The Browns just allowed Burrow to throw for over 4oo passing yards and three TDs in a narrow victory. After showing a solid floor over the last few weeks, Carr has a great chance to reach his ceiling in a game that has a 53.5-point over/under.
Darren Waller is my top TE play on a main slate that also features elite options George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews. The “big three” at the position all have volume or matchup concerns, but Waller should not deal with either obstacle. The Browns are a top-five matchup for opposing TEs, and Waller has been one of Carr’s favorite weapons all season. Waller saw at least seven targets in each of his last three games, which came against tough passing-game matchups. He should have much more room to maneuver Sunday at Cleveland.
Waller is a terrific leverage play at a TE position that has plagued season-long and DFS players alike all year. Hitting on a Carr-Waller stack could elevate a GPP lineup. On the Cleveland side, RB Kareem Hunt ($8,200) is a strong option as a home favorite bell-cow who should see plenty of volume against a Raiders defense allowing fourth-most fantasy points to the RB position.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): $6,600 / Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF): $5,900
I hope you tuned into the fantasy bonanza that was the Seahawks and Cardinals on Sunday Night Football. The winner of Week 7’s NFL Sunday Million contest over at FanDuel featured a lineup with Seattle’s opposition at QB and WR. There is a good enough chance the same will be true in Week 8.
Yes, Garoppolo has not had a terrific season to this point. He was infamously pulled when he first returned to action in Week 5 after tossing two first-half interceptions at home against Miami. However, Jimmy G rebounded with 268 yards and three TDs in a dominant win over the visiting Rams in Week 6. He recorded 23.52 FanDuel fantasy points against the Los Angeles front that had analysts all over the country questioning why Nick Foles was the starting QB for the Chicago Bears on Monday night.
Garropolo could be low rostered after disappointing fantasy outputs, and DFS players could also be worried about how he will fare without second-year WR Deebo Samuel, who will miss the upcoming game. While the Niners have relied on their running game for much of the season, they will likely need to turn to the air in Week 8. Seattle has been great at stopping the run, and San Francisco is also three-point underdogs in a game that carries a 54-point over/under. Both teams could be throwing early and often.
In an extremely loaded rookie WR class, Brandon Aiyuk has been one of the most impressive first-year wideouts so far. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has found creative ways to get him the ball, including WR screens and jet sweeps. Seattle is allowing the most points to opposing WRs, and Aiyuk should be the featured man with Samuel on the sidelines.
Both passing games could thrive and reach their ceilings in this divisional matchup. On the Seattle side, WR Tyler Lockett ($7,200) has a sky-high ceiling that he displayed on Sunday night. However, D.K. Metcalf ($7,800) could be a good pivot after he disappointed in that high-scoring affair against Arizona.
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