Best NFL Plays for Week 11 at No House Advantage
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 300-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 29-24 on the NFL thus far, which is pretty bad. Week 10 was quite forgettable for me. That said, I’m chasing perfection again in Week 11!
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Cam Newton (NE): UNDER 1,5 Passing Touchdowns
This pick is super safe — the under is undefeated! While Newton has scored 12 touchdowns this year, only three of them came through the air, and he is yet to throw for two of them in a single game. He didn’t even throw two touchdowns when he passed for 397 yards against the Seahawks.
The counterpoint? The Texans surrender an average of two passing touchdowns per game. That said, I expect Newton to do most of his damage on the ground. The Texans have given up a league-high 1,507 rushing yards, and I suspect that Newton won’t have to pass very often to win.
Don’t expect Newton to clear the over for the first time all season.
Baker Mayfield (CLE): UNDER 223.5 Passing Yards (S)
My biggest problem with handicapping the NFL has been appropriately adjusting for the weather. I try to use quantitative data first and qualitative data second, but that’s caused me to miss out on some smart plays. No more.
Moderate to Heavy rain continues to look likely for tomorrow's 1PM match up between the Eagles and Browns (At Cleveland).
Vegas opened with a 46 O/U; Draftkings sits at 48pts… 👀 pic.twitter.com/sL32vbT1VT
— Fantasy Football Weather Guys (@FFWeatherGuys) November 21, 2020
With nasty weather in store this week, I’ll be betting against both quarterbacks and on one running back in this game — hence the (S) label for stacking. Even without the weather, this line would be a smart one to target, as Mayfield averages just 182.9 passing yards per game. The under has hit in seven of his nine starts, and he’s topped 223.5 yards just twice.
I doubt that Mayfield will have an above-average performance in bad weather, and you can safely target his unders at NHA.
Carson Wentz (PHI): UNDER 245.5 Passing Yards (S)
Like Mayfield, Wentz will also have to endure below-average conditions. With this line set above Wentz’s average passing yards per game (232.2), he’ll have just as hard of a time clearing it.
Wentz has cleared this line just three times all year, and he hasn’t done so since Week 7. With Miles Sanders back in the lineup, there will be less pressure on Wentz to do all the work himself. Sure, the Browns average more passing yards per game than this (268.5), but I don’t expect him to clear either that line or his over.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Kareem Hunt (CLE): OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards (S)
If the Browns and Eagles have to deal with stormy weather, that means the running backs will have to do the heavy lifting. Cleveland’s two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt got a lot of usage last week in similar conditions, as both backs went for 100-plus rushing yards, and I’m expecting something similar here.
I would target Hunt’s line over Chubb’s line, however, as Hunt’s is far below his per-game average. Hunt gets 70.3 rushing yards per game. Hunt actually averages more rushing yards per game with Chubb around (75.8) than without him (63.5).
The Eagles may only surrender 79.2 rushing yards per game to running backs, the ninth-fewest in the league, but the weather should give Hunt plenty of chances to hit the over here.
Jonnu Smith (TEN): UNDER 3.5 Receptions
Smith has only caught 26 passes this season, good for a 2.9 per-game average. That said, 14 of his catches (53.8%) of them came in Weeks 1 to 5, the games that the Titans were the most depleted at wide receiver. Both A.J. Brown and Corey Davis missed some of those games due to injuries or their COVID-19 designations, which explains his larger share of the volume.
Smith hasn’t beaten this line since both of them returned to the offense, and I don’t think he’ll do so against the Ravens. Baltimore gives up only 4.5 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, and with Anthony Firkser to compete with, Smith is unlikely to catch four passes.
Jakobi Meyers (NE): OVER 4.5 Receptions
Meyers has broken out since Julian Edelman’s injury. He has averaged 7.7 catches per game over the last three weeks, and he was the only New England wide receiver to earn a target last week.
The other upshot with Meyers? The Texans aren’t particularly good on defense. They give up 13.3 catches per game to opposing wideouts, and with New England’s lack of alternative weapons, I suspect that Meyers will get the bulk of the workload.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Alvin Kamara (NO): OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
I have no idea how New Orleans’ offense will operate on Sunday. Sean Payton has been cagey about the quarterback situation, and it’s unclear whether Taysom Hill will play every down under center or if Jameis Winston will also rotate in.
No matter who throws him the ball, Kamara should be good for at least 51 receiving yards. He averages 72 of them per game, and he’s cleared this over in all but two of his games.
Marquise Brown (BAL): OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Brown and the Baltimore Ravens haven’t been good this season. The wide receiver has gotten out-played by Willie Snead over the last three weeks, and he’s totaled just six receptions for 55 yards over the last three weeks. So why am I targeting his over?
Easy. The Titans are terrible against opposing wideouts. They give up the third-most receiving yards per game to the position (202.8), and I’m optimistic that Brown can right the ship here.
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