Best NFL Plays for Week 12 at No House Advantage
The DFS market has exploded in recent years, and you’ve got a plethora of options aside from the big-names of DraftKings and FanDuel. No House Advantage (NHA) is one such upstart competitor, and the site has eschewed the traditional salary cap structure in favor of ranked prop bets.
What does that mean? At NHA, you must pick a set number of individual player prop lines, take the over or under, and put them in order. The higher you rank a line, the more points you receive if it hits.
If you’re an experienced DFS player, you know that the payout structure will dictate your strategy. For this week’s 300-person $4,000 Sunday Kickoff contest, 50% of the prize pool goes to first place. This column earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, and that included three perfect lineups. I’m currently 32-29 on the NFL thus far, which, I’ll admit, could be better. That said, my high-priority picks were perfect last week, and I’m chasing perfection again in Week 12!
Best High-Priority Prop Plays
Cam Newton (NE): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
After last week, this one remains undefeated. Cam Newton has thrown four touchdown passes on the season, and he’s yet to toss two in a single game. The Patriots have no incentive to make the six-foot-five, 250-pound signal-caller throw the ball when in the red zone, and it would shock me if he suddenly clears this line for the first time.
The Cardinals give up an average of 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, a nose above this line, but not far enough above it to discourage me from playing the under. Don’t expect the Patriots to change how they use Newton.
Dalvin Cook (MIN): OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (S)
The Vikings probably won’t have Adam Thielen this week, and they’re playing the Panthers, who surrender 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game. As a result, Minnesota will lean on Cook, and he should score at least one rushing touchdown.
In his nine games this season, Cook has scored a total of 13 rushing touchdowns — 1.4 of them per game. He scored in all but one of his games, too, with his one miss coming against the tough Chicago Bears defense. The elite running back is a safe bet to find paydirt, and there’s more value on this line than on his rushing yards line, which is set at 109.5.
Justin Jefferson (MIN): OVER 78.5 Receiving Yards (S)
With Thielen likely sidelined, it’s safe to expect a big game from Jefferson. The rookie wideout leads the league in yards per route run (3.16). Even better, he’s finished with 78-plus yards in all but two of his games since his Week 3 breakout — all of which he played alongside Thielen.
While most of Minnesota’s yards will come on the ground, Jefferson doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit value. He averages 18.9 yards per catch, so he would need roughly 4.1 receptions to clear this line. The Panthers also won’t have CB1 Donte Jackson, so Jefferson should have an easier time than usual.
Best Mid-Priority Prop Plays
Kirk Cousins (MIN): UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (S)
Since I expect Cook to do most of the scoring, I don’t expect Cousins to throw for two touchdowns. While it’s true that he has thrown for two-plus scores in 70% of his games this year, he won’t have two of his favorite red-zone weapons: Thielen and Irv Smith.
Of Minnesota’s 15 targets inside the 10-yard line, Thielen and Smith have drawn 12 (80%) of them. The only others went to Kyle Rudolph (2) and Justin Jefferson (1).
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI): OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards
I am undeterred by Stephon Gilmore. He’s struggled in coverage this season, as he’s sporting a PFF coverage grade of 61.1 for his work thus far, a far cry from his grade of 82.8 from last year.
As a result, I think it’s fair to expect at least an average showing from Hopkins. He gets 91.2 receiving yards per game, a solid mark above this line, and he’s hit the over in four of his games thus far. The Patriots give up 157.7 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, too, so I’m comfortable betting on Hopkins to have a solid performance here.
Derrick Henry (TEN): OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards
Henry’s line is far too low this week. Yes, the Colts have given up the third-fewest rushing yards per game (89.2), but Henry just burned them for 103 rushing yards in Week 10. That result was a notch below his average per-game performance (107.9).
Henry has cleared this total in 70% of his games this season, and I would be surprised if he didn’t do it again.
Best Low-Priority Prop Plays
Kenyan Drake (ARI): OVER 52.5 Rushing Yards
Drake ranks ninth in total rushing attempts, and he’s in for another high-volume role this week. The Patriots give up 99.0 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and even though Drake will lose some work to Kyler Murray and Chase Edmonds, there should be enough for the over to hit.
In Drake’s nine games, he’s averaged 71.2 rushing yards, and he’s cleared the over in 66.7% of them. He should do so again this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
Pittman is trending in the right direction. Since Week 9, he’s averaged 74.3 receiving yards per game, a healthy chunk above this line. He’s done so on 4.7 receptions per game, too. While he’s averaging above both his lines for receiving yards (51.5) and receptions (4.5), he cleared the yardage line in all three games, but he cleared the receptions line just once.
I fully expect Pittman’s strong rookie season to continue against Tennessee, as they have given up the fifth-most receiving yards per game (187.3) to the position.
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