DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 11 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool

Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) at JAC $8,000 (+$600)
After going off against a depleted Bengals’ secondary, Roethlisberger’s price rightfully rises dramatically against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-most points to the quarterback position. A now fully healthy arsenal of receivers makes Big Ben a lot more valuable going forward. The Steelers have an implied total of over 28 points and have seemingly gone heavy passing the last three weeks regardless of the game script. I’d feel confident rolling with him again.

Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs NE $7,700 (-$600)
It took 50 mph gusts and a weather delay for Watson to have his worst game of the year, and it still wasn’t that bad. While the Patriots have allowed the fourth-fewest points to quarterbacks, Watson has been a solid play all year long and recency bias gives us a discount this week. Don’t let one game throw off his record in extreme conditions. His rushing upside alone is enough to consider him in all formats.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift (DET) vs TB $6,900 (+$900)
Swift has seen increased snap counts for three straight weeks and keeps producing to secure the coaching staff’s faith in him. He now gets the Panthers susceptible defense as they are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. The rookie has continued to show out as of late and they will continue to utilize him heavily in the absence of stud wideout Kenny Golladay. I still believe the touchdowns will be highly volatile week to week, however.

Kareem Hunt (CLE) vs PHI $6,700 (-$800)
Hunt just put up over 130 yards and now got heavily demoted in pricing. He gets yet another top-five run-funnel defense with the Eagles similar to the Texans last week. He was a top-12 running back when both he and Chubb were on the field earlier this year, continued to show out last week, and is now a steep price drop? This is too good of a discount to pass up, and he will very likely perform above expectation as he has shown in the past.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson (PIT) at JAC $6,400 (+$700)
In healthy games this year, Johnson has yet to see under 10 targets a game. Despite this phenomenal stat line, it is seemingly impossible to predict which of the Steelers wide receivers you can count on. All are priced within $100 of each other, but Johnson does appear to have the safest floor considering the target share.

D.J. Chark (JAC) vs PIT $6,200 (-$400)
Chark has become quite unpredictable this year. Two games over 20 but four games under 10, he is the epitome of boom or bust in your lineup. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, so I’d be extremely weary of starting anyone against this squad. I’m not sure Jake Luton will be up to the task, so as a result, I’m steering clear of Jaguars skill players this week.

Tight Ends

Logan Thomas (WAS) $5,200 vs CIN (+$300)
There was only one tight end to have a snap share above 95% last week, and it was Thomas. This heavy use implies more targets could easily find his way towards him, especially considering the lack of depth at wide receiver. He is averaging nine targets a game over his last four games. That’s the kind of floor we should be targeting. Thomas is definitely a viable option at a position that is thin as ever.

Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.

David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

David Zach is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @DavidZach16.