DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 12 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Tracking dramatic shifts in pricing trends from FanDuel DFS gives us a glimpse of players on the rise or fading away. These extreme shifts mean the market is moving in ways that naturally create more room for error in the price point. It’s our job to find out if there’s an edge to be had and exploit it or if it is indeed fair value. Below are some of the players that have moved the most from last week in pricing and my take on them as a possible play or fade this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) at NYJ $7,400 (+$1,200)
Tua Tagovailoa will remain the starter via Brian Flores, so this may be a relative non-factor. Tagovailoa looked quite bad last week, but whoever is under center come Sunday will get a much easier matchup in the Jets. Their defense has allowed the fourth-most points to quarterbacks and just finished getting lit up by Herbert and company. The starting quarterback for the Dolphins is a good play this week whether it’s Tagovailoa or Fitzpatrick, and all signs point to the former retaining his starting gig.
Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) at MIN $7,000 (-$200)
Bridgewater almost played last week, and it went all the way up to pregame warmups before he was finally ruled out. Walker did well in his absence against a weak Lions defense so that may cloud up the decision this week, although it seems very likely that Bridgewater returns. The timing is very welcome against a Vikings’ defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers in the league. The combination of Moore, Anderson, and Samuel will be too much for these young cornerbacks to handle, making Bridgewater a great play if he is a full go this week.
Alvin Kamara (NO) at DEN $8,600 (-$1,100)
Taysom Hill took over for the Saints with Drew Brees sidelined, and no one got their fantasy value hurt worse than Kamara. For the first time all year, he was held to zero catches on a single target. What’s even worse, is that Hill’s running prowess vulture scores that normally belong to Kamara. The result was Kamara’s worst output of the year that could’ve been much worse if not for the touchdown he had. This bountiful scoring against the sub-par Falcons’ defense will not be there every week, so he will be more touchdown-dependent than ever now that his receiving role has all but disappeared.
Jonathan Taylor (IND) vs TEN $6,400 (+$700)
Taylor came back to fantasy life last week against the Packers as I predicted in the Feast or Famine series here. A similarly nice matchup comes this week against the Titans who are allowing the seventh-most points to running backs. This backfield rotation can certainly be messy to guess which ones will hit, but Taylor’s role in the receiving game is actually what is helping to buoy his value to be the safest of the three going forward. The Colts are 3.5-point favorites with a game total of 51, both of which help support a good game script for him.
Michael Thomas (NO) at DEN $7,700 (-$500)
Thomas continues to be priced as one of the best receiving options to play but it has never really made sense so far this year. He simply doesn’t have the outrageous floor that he had last year and has been overpriced every week that he has been healthy this year. It might be a good idea to fade the name recognition here and simply look elsewhere, especially considering the Taysom Hill experiment is now established as a reality for the near future.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs CAR $7,000 (+$300)
Jefferson has established himself as one of the better receivers in the league and has slowly trended up in pricing all year long. A 3-85-1 line against Dallas brought him back up to being a top performer. However, Carolina has been tough against receivers yet generous to running backs as a funnel-defense, so this week doesn’t have the allure of last week’s matchup. Dalvin Cook looks primed once again the week at the possible expense of Minnesota’s wide receivers.
Hunter Henry (LAC) $5,900 at BUF (+$400)
The Bills have been a surprisingly good matchup for tight ends as they have given the third-most points to the position. The breakout of Justin Herbert has also been beneficial for pass-catching options in Los Angeles and Henry is coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown. The lack of running backs for the Chargers have also limited their ground game and resulted in more red zone utility for their receivers. Henry looks to have another decent outlook this week as a viable option.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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