A pair of versatile backs appear as my favorite stud and favorite value play, respectively. They’re joined by a four-man game stack in the desert as my favorite stack of the week. Additionally, I provided a pair of pivots/contrarian options to consider in the game stack.
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Favorite Stud
James Conner (RB – PIT): $6,900 vs. Bengals
The Steelers were expected to destroy the Cowboys last week. Instead, they found themselves trailing most of the game before rallying for a victory. Those who were burned by Conner’s dud need to have a short memory as he has a dreamy get-right opportunity this week. The Steelers are seven point favorites at home, according to the consensus line at BettingPros. The gamescript should be favorable for Conner in a cushy draw.
Football Outsiders ranks the Bengals 25th in Rush Defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). They’ve been throttled for a silly 5.4 yards per carry this year by running backs, per Pro-Football-Reference. Given their gaudy yards per carry coughed up to backs this season, it should come as little surprise the Bengals have struggled with explosive running plays. In fact, their average explosive run rate yielded of 16% is the highest allowed this season, according to Sharp Football Stats. Conner should have little trouble piling up yardage on the ground, and, with multiple receptions in seven of eight contests, should add some fantasy points through the air, too.
Favorite Value Play
Mike Davis (RB – CAR): $4,000 vs. Buccaneers
Christian McCaffrey reportedly won’t play this weekend. That leaves Davis as the near-certain chalkiest player on the slate at his minimum salary for a running back. With CMC out from Week 3 through Week 8, Davis carried the ball 13 or more times in five of six contests, hauled in five or more receptions in four of those games, and bested 75 yards from scrimmage four times. He also scored four touchdowns.
Volume is the name of the game, and Davis is basically a bingo square. This is good chalk to eat. In addition to loving Davis’s volume, the matchup might not be as tough as it appears at first blush. The Buccaneers have the third-best run defense, per Football Outsiders’ Rush Defense DVOA. However, they haven’t been as stout in the absence of tackle Vita Vea. They’ve played four games without him, and they’ve surrendered their three highest rushing yards totals to the opposition, including back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing totals the last two weeks. There’s no reason to overthink this selection.
Favorite Stack
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): $7,500 at Cardinals
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): $7,500 at Cardinals
John Brown (WR – BUF): $5,300 at Cardinals
Pivot/Contrarian Play: Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): $3,400 at Cardinals
Christian Kirk (WR – ARI): $5,700 vs. Bills
Pivot/Contrarian Play: Andy Isabella (WR – ARI): $3,500 vs. Bills
This will probably be the most popular game stacked this week, as the game’s over/under total of 56.5 points is the highest of the week by a two point margin over the projected shootout in Los Angeles between the Seahawks and Rams. Both teams play up-tempo football. The Bills are playing at the eighth-fastest situation neutral pace while the Cardinals are playing at the second-fastest situation neutral pace, per Football Outsiders. A breakneck pace means ample plays run and massive fantasy point scoring upside to go around.
Quarterback Kyler Murray ($8,000) and his No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700) both have strong cases for usage together or separately. I’ll have some exposure to both as a stack and mixed with the featured players above. However, my favorite stack is the quartet of Allen/Diggs/Brown and Kirk.
Part of the motivation for leaning towards the Bills trio spearheaded by Allen is the difference in quality of play of the Cardinals defense relative to Buffalo’s defense. Simply put, the Bills are coming off of a quality showing against the Seahawks — albeit one in which they yielded 34 points — while the Cardinals coughed up 34 points to the same Seahawks in Week 7 before their bye and came out of the bye allowing another 34 points to the Dolphins. With all due respect to the Dolphins, their offense isn’t nearly as explosive as Buffalo’s.
Allen’s enjoying an impressive season in which he’s passed for more than 300 yards in five of nine games and tossed multiple touchdown passes in seven games. He also bolsters his scoring with his legs, reaching pay dirt five times on the ground and averaging 26.8 rushing yards per game.
He and Diggs have had instant chemistry in the talented receiver’s first season with the Bills. In fact, Diggs leads the NFL with 63 receptions and 91 targets, ranks fifth with 90.3 receiving yards per game, and has hauled in three touchdowns. He’s the most obvious stack partner with Allen, but a seemingly healthier Brown is a great stack partner, too.
Brown’s been managing a knee injury that sidelined him in Week 7. He was largely unseen in Week 6 and Week 8, but he balled out last week with a 8-99-0 line on 11 targets last week. In the first two weeks of the season when he was presumably healthier and not dealing with his knee issue, he totaled a 6-70-1 line on 10 targets and a 4-82-1 line on six targets, respectively.
In their expected shootout last week against the Seahawks, the Bills turned to a pass-happy approach. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll could do the same this week, and that leaves plenty of scoring chances for multiple pass-catchers on the Bills to deliver a positive return on investment.
Rookie receiver Gabriel Davis is a viable pivot from Diggs or Brown. His ceiling is well short of Diggs’ and Brown’s, but he’s cheap enough that he doesn’t have a high bar to clear in order to provide a positive return. He’s scored three touchdowns this year, and he had his best game of his young career last week with a 4-70-1 line despite being the fourth receiver with all of Buffalo’s wideouts healthy. Working in his favor is that the Bills aren’t shy about using four-receiver sets. According to the data at Sharp Football Stats, the Bills use “10” personnel (one running back, zero tight ends, and four receivers) at the second-highest rate this year at 18%.
The only team that uses “10” personnel more frequently is the Cardinals at 21%. Their NFL-high willingness to trot out four wideouts puts Isabella’s blazing speed into the pivot mix, too. The second-year receiver’s average depth of target of 14.5 yards downfield is the 17th-deepest mark among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 10 times, according to Sports Info Solutions. Look no further than last week for an example of the Bills allowing a deep reception to a wideout that helps them hit value at their low salary with David Moore securing a 55-yard touchdown pass.
Russell Wilson not giving up yet, 55-yard touchdown to David Moore.
41-27.pic.twitter.com/i7hKl4gYxQ
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 8, 2020
Moore benefited from Russell Wilson’s mobility buying some time, and Murray’s capable of extending plays with his legs as well.
While Isabella’s a solid pivot, Kirk’s my favorite pass-catching option — price considered and what the salary savings spinning down to him from Nuk means for full-roster construction. The third-year receiver is on a heater. Since a solid, if unspectacular showing in Week 5 in which he caught five of seven targets for 78 receiving yards, he’s ripped off a 2-86-2 line in Week 6, 5-37-2 showing in Week 7, and 5-123-1 line last week. He’s garnered five or more targets in five of seven games including four of his last five games.
He’s not just on a heater, though, He’s having a strong season overall nipping at Hopkins’ heels in intended air yards. Nuk has totaled 622 intended air yards while Kirk’s totaled 521 intended air yards, per Sports Info Solutions. While all of the featured players from this stack should be on plenty of rosters, using them all together could be somewhat unique. Also, mixing in either of the pivots will offer a truly unique stack.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
