DraftKings NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 12
A stud back on a favored team in a juicy matchup gets the nod as my favorite stud this week. He’s joined by a field-stretching rookie receiver as my favorite value play. The touted plays below are rounded out by a stack featuring a quarterback and his No. 1 receiver with a pair of add-on options — depending on the health of one of those two receivers — and a No. 2 receiver from the option running it back the other way.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): $9,500 vs. Panthers
Cook is the most expensive player to roster on this slate, and that’s for good reason. He’s touched the ball more than 30 times in three of his last four games with “only” 26 touches resulting in an eye-popping 206 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and two receptions for 46 receiving yards in the outlier contest. He’s unquestionably the driving force for Minnesota’s offense, and he leads the NFL in both yards from scrimmage (1,303) and total touchdowns (14), per Pro-Football-Reference.
Even with Cook’s salary rising for the fourth week in a row, he’s worth the big-ticket price in a mouthwatering matchup. The Panthers have yielded the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to running backs this year, 4.76 yards per carry, and the third-most receptions (68) to the position. The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites at home this week, according to the consensus line at BettingPros, so Cook should be in store for another favorable gamescript and heavy workload. He’ll be chalky, but there are other spots on your roster that can be used to differentiate from the field.
Favorite Value Play
Denzel Mims (WR – NYJ): $3,500 vs. Dolphins
Mims’ rookie season got off to a late start due to injury, but since suiting up for the first time in Week 7, he’s caught multiple passes in all four games, tallied at least 42 receiving yards in each contest, totaled at least seven targets in three of four games, and surpassed 60 receiving yards in back-to-back games. His first two games were played with Sam Darnold starting at quarterback while his two most productive games have come the last two weeks with Joe Flacco filling in.
Darnold’s trending in the right direction to play this week, according to the report from ESPN.com staff writer Rich Cimini. The quarterback uncertainty adds some murkiness to Mims’ outlook this week, as a return to Darnold could mean a reversion to dinking and dunking to slot man Jamison Crowder. However, Darnold hasn’t played with all of his wideouts healthy in the same contest, so it’s a bit of a mystery as to what his target distribution will look like.
In Week 7 with Darnold starting and Crowder out, Mims accounted for a whopping 39.6 percent of the team’s air yards, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. In Week 8, he didn’t reach the minimum of five targets to qualify for NFL Next Gen Stats leaderboard, but he totaled 54 air yards and hauled in two receptions on three targets for 42 receiving yards, per PlayerProfiler. Over the last two weeks with Flacco chucking it deep regularly, Mims has tallied a silly 319 air yards. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, Mims’ nearly minimum salary leaves ample room for him to provide a huge return on investment. Having said that, one more week of Flacco starting would probably elevate his ceiling based on Flacco’s willingness to sling it deep.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF): $7.600 vs. Chargers
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): $7,600 vs. Chargers
Add-on: John Brown (WR – BUF): $4,800 vs. Chargers
Add-on: Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): $3,000 vs. Chargers
Mike Williams (WR – LAC): $5,000 at Bills
A Bills stack has been a mainstay in this space, and this is the third time in the last four weeks — their bye fell on the only week they didn’t appear in this spot — they’re the backbone of my favorite stack. Allen has delivered the goods at the touted trigger man in those stacks, scoring 39.0 DraftKings points against the Seahawks in Week 9 and 29.36 DraftKings points in Week 10. Allen’s returned to the form that saw him rip off three-straight games of 33 DraftKings points or more to open his 2020 campaign.
The Chargers are ill-equipped to slow him down. The 9.1 average depth of target they’ve allowed this year is the fourth-highest mark, per Pro-Football-Reference. They’ve also coughed up the ninth-most points per game (27.3 points). The giving nature of the Chargers defense helps explain the 5.5-point favored host Bills’ implied team total of 29.5 points.
The top stacking option with Allen is his No. 1 receiver, Diggs. For the year, Diggs ranks second in targets (101) and receptions (73) and third in receiving yards per game (90.6 yards). He also ranks sixth in Intended Air Yards (999), per Sports Info Solutions. Teammate John Brown was held out of practice Wednesday, but if he’s able to suit up this week, he’s a strong add-on option to an Allen/Diggs stack. If he’s ruled out, rookie teammate Gabriel Davis is a high-upside, minimum salary pivot. Cole Beasley ($5,500) also has merit for usage whether or not Brown plays, but I presently don’t have any planned exposure to him in GPPs.
On the other side, Keenan Allen should understandably be the most popular option from the Chargers since he’s the man sitting directly ahead of Diggs in targets and receptions. However, I’m digging his field-stretching teammate, Williams, at a sizable salary discount.
In the massive shadow cast by Allen’s big performances this year, Williams has quietly posted seven or more targets and four or more receptions, for more than 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He’s also added a touchdown reception in two of those four contests. Williams has the 12th-most Intended Air Yards (899) this season and his average depth of target of 17.3 yards downfield is the fourth-deepest mark among players targeted at least 25 times this year. With the Chargers 5.5-point underdogs, the game script could be favorable for a pass-happy, catch-up approach that would benefit Williams.
This stack has massive upside. Further, rostering it leaves plenty of cap space for the aforementioned Cook. If you toss in my favorite value play Mims, are willing to roll the dice on a cheap defense and another punt, there’s cap space left for another stud, too.
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