Last week was downright ugly. I don’t think anyone in our industry got anything right, as was certainly the case for me. Sometimes things just don’t go as anticipated, and that’s one of the main reasons why we love the NFL. There’s always a week like that, though, and I feel much better about Week 11. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite plays of the week!
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Thursday/Monday Slates
Thursday’s game features a matchup between the Cardinals and Seahawks. The 59-point total is one of the highest of the season, so we should be in for an NFC West shootout. Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and DeAndre Hopkins are all great options. In terms of value, Christian Kirk, Dan Arnold, Carlos Hyde, and Alex Collins are in play.
The Monday night matchup gives us the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Los Angeles Rams. These are two of the best teams in the NFC and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Tom Brady is tough to fade with all the weapons he possesses, with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans making great pairings. Los Angeles is tough to figure out given how much it spreads the ball around, but Cooper Kupp looks like its best option.
Quarterback of the Week
Jameis Winston (NO): $5,900 vs. ATL
With Drew Brees missing this game, Winston is my favorite play of the day. While many people joke about his turnovers, Winston has established himself as one of the best DFS producers out there. In fact, he averaged 25 DraftKings points in his final 14 games last season, ranking third at the position. It’s not like he’s lost talent around him either, playing with studs like Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Emmanuel Sanders. The matchup isn’t too bad either; Atlanta owns a 28th opponent rank against quarterbacks.
Another option is Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700), who has been throwing at will and gets a superb matchup against Jacksonville.
Cash Game Running Back
Dalvin Cook (MIN): $9,000 vs, DAL
It’s weird seeing the hottest running back in football priced as the third-highest back (including the inactive Christian McCaffrey) on the slate. That’s what we have here with Cook, easily my top option on the board. His recent form speaks for itself, collecting 841 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns over his last six outings. That doesn’t take into consideration his ability to catch the ball, making him the most dangerous dual-threat in the game. Getting to face Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite only adds to his intrigue, as the Cowboys have surrendered the second-most rushing yards in the NFL.
Don’t forget about Alvin Kamara ($9,200) against the Falcons.
GPP Running Back
Kalen Ballage (LAC): $5,600 vs. NYJ
Man, if you told me Kalen Ballage would be in this article at the beginning of the season, I would have called you crazy. Here we are though, with Ballage looking like a different player than the bust we saw in Miami. He’s actually established himself as the go-to back for the Chargers, amassing 33 carries and nine targets over the last two games. That’s a monster workload, and it’s led to him providing at least 15 DK points in back-to-back outings. I love the matchup against a 26th-ranked Jets defense as an 8.5-point favorite. With all that said, don’t play Ballage if Austin Ekeler surprisingly returns.
If Joe Mixon is out again, Giovani Bernard is a great option against Washington at just $5,500.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO): $7,300 vs. ATL
It’s hard to recommend one of the biggest busts in fantasy, but that should lead to some seriously low usage in DFS tournaments. Getting a guy with this much upside in such few lineups makes Thomas enticing, but the matchup only adds to his value. Not only does Atlanta surrender the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but Thomas also had 19 receptions for 200 yards in two matchups against them last season. If using Winston, Thomas is hard to avoid. These two could be an underutilized stack.
Jarvis Landry has a 30 percent target share since Odell Beckham Jr.’s injury and is definitely in play at $5,500.
GPP Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson (PIT): $5,900 at JAX
Why is DJ still under $6K? He has established himself as Big Ben’s top target, but he’s still the lowest-priced among their top-three wide receivers. Johnson has had three duds this season, but he actually suffered a first-quarter injury in two of those games. He had at least six catches and 10 targets in all of the other five fixtures. That led to a 21-point average on DraftKings, which would rank second on this slate. The matchup is the icing on the cake though, with Jacksonville owning a 24th OPRK against opposing wide receivers and the worst yards-per-attempt average in the NFL.
Jakobi Meyers, averaging 18 DraftKings points per game across his last four contests, is too cheap at $4,900.
Tight End of the Week
Austin Hooper (CLE): $3,900 vs. PHI
Hooper was a huge bust for us last week, but let’s go right back to the well. Cleveland simply didn’t want to throw the ball last week because of the 40 MPH winds. That’s something we didn’t anticipate earlier in the week, and I’m going to pretend like it didn’t happen. Prior to that, Hooper had at least five catches in three straight games and ranked second on the team in targets. If we can get five catches from a player priced below $4,000, he’d easily be one of the best values on the board. Not to mention, Philadelphia surrenders the most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing tight ends this season.
Despite leading all tight ends on this slate in fantasy points, T.J. Hockenson ($4,200) is just seventh in terms of pricing.
D/ST of the Week
Miami Dolphins: $3,400 at DEN
It feels strange to say this, but Miami has one of the best defenses in football. Not only do the Dolphins rank fifth in points allowed, but they’re also tied for fifth in turnovers and 10th in total sacks. That’s a dream for a D/ST, and they happen to have a dream matchup as well. Denver owns a 28th OPRK against D/STs and sits 26th in total yardage, 27th in points scored, and dead last in turnovers. All of that looks even tastier when considering that the Dolphins are just $3,400.
Pittsburgh is the most expensive D/ST out there, but the Steelers are definitely a good option against the Jaguars.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
