DraftKings NFL Lineup Advice: Week 12 (Sunday Main Slate)
With so many question marks on the Thanksgiving Day Slate, we’re going to go ahead and focus on the main slate for Sunday. Last week was a nice bounce-back for us, with our cash game recommendations all performing well. We were bit by the Taysom Hill news with our Jameis Winston pick but who could have seen that coming on Wednesday? Anyway, let’s get into our best picks for the Week 12 slate!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel.
Sunday/Monday Night Slate
The Sunday Night matchup gives us the Green Bay Packers hosting the Chicago Bears. Green Bay enters this matchup as a huge favorite, with Chicago losing four-straight. That means Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones are obvious plays. We’re not even sure who’s going to be the quarterback for Chicago, making David Montgomery their best option. In terms of value, we like Allen Lazard, Jimmy Graham, and the Green Bay D/ST.
Monday Night gives us the Philadelphia Eagles and the Seattle Seahawks. Both passing attacks are easy options here, with Seattle having a terrible secondary and a dangerous passing unit. That means Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are all great options. In terms of value, we like Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert, and the Seattle D/ST.
Quarterback of the Week
Kyler Murray (ARI) $8,200 at NE
We mentioned in Week 2 that Murray was in the midst of a Lamar Jackson-like season and he’s made good on that prediction with better averages than the ones L-Jax posted last season. The sophomore quarterback for Arizona is the only player in the NFL with over 30 DraftKings points per game, scoring over 20 fantasy points in all 10 games this season. That’s an unmatched floor and New England is a better defense than many might expect. In fact, the Patriots sit dead-last in both yards per completion and yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks, sitting 24th in OPRK against them in total. Not to mention, New England has allowed 53 rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks which happens to be the fourth-most in the NFL.
Matt Ryan is too cheap at $5,900 against a vulnerable Raiders defense.
Cash Game Running Back
Wayne Gallman (NYG) $5,000 at CIN
This is a strange pick for a cash game running back but the DFS community is surely aware of this ridiculous price. Gallman has taken over starting duties the last four weeks, scoring at least 13.2 DK points in all of those fixtures. That’s the production of a $7,000 player and it’s hard to understand why he remains so cheap. The matchup is the icing on the cake though, with Cincy ranked 31st in the league, allowing 5.0 yards allowed per carry.
Obviously, Dalvin Cook is in play with his absurd production.
GPP Running Back
Giovani Bernard (CIN) $5,700 vs. NYG
Many people are horrified by the Bengals and rightfully so but Gio is simply too cheap right now. Since Joe Mixon got injured in Week 6, Bernard is averaging 14.9 DraftKings points per game. That’s really all you can hope for from a player south of $6K, with Bernard playing in over 70 percent of the team’s snaps since Week 6. The matchup against New York isn’t too shabby either, with the Giants owning a 27th OPRK against opposing running backs. This could be an ugly game with two bad quarterbacks at the helm, so, look for these running backs to do some work. If Bernard does sit, look for Semaje Perine to be a nice value.
Salvon Ahmed could have success against a bad Jets team.
Cash Game Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley (ATL) $7,100 vs. LV
With Julio Jones likely limited or missing this game, Ridley is one of the best options on the board. Not only does that take nearly eight targets out of the equation, but it also makes Ridley the go-to option for Matt Ryan. In the two games that Jones missed earlier this season, Ridley averaged 11.5 targets per game, scoring at least 19.7 fantasy points in both of those outings. We love the matchup against the Raiders too, with Las Vegas ranked 24th in yards per attempt and 22nd in OPRK against opposing wide receivers. Even if Julio plays, Ridley is still a good option.
Keenan Allen has been targeted at the highest rate in the NFL recently and could continue his success against a subpar Buffalo defense.
GPP Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry (CLE) $5,200 at JAX
I might be foolish with this recommendation but something tells me Landry is finally going to have his breakout game. What many people don’t consider is the fact that Cleveland has been playing in horrendous weather for three-straight weeks. That has killed this passing game, with Landry taking a major hit to his price. The good news here is that we get good weather and one of the best matchups in football. In fact, the Jaguars own a 28th OPRK against opposing wide receivers this season and have allowed at least 24 points in every game since Week 1. We also can’t overlook the fact that Landry is the top target in this offense with Odell Beckham injured, leading the team with a 29 percent target share since Week 7.
Nelson Agholor is the definition of a GPP play and could have success against one of the worst secondaries in football.
Tight End of the Week
Darren Waller (LV) $6,000 at ATL
Using pass-catchers against Atlanta is a cheat code in DFS and it’s nice to get the Raiders top option at tight end. This is easily the weakest position in fantasy football but Waller has established himself as an easy top-3 option. The reason for that is his role, ranked second among all tight ends with 8.4 targets per game, en route to 14.4 DK points per outing. That is also second to only Travis Kelce and we haven’t even discussed this stupendous matchup. The Falcons sit 23rd in OPRK against opposing tight ends while allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL. Don’t be afraid to stack Derek Carr with Waller and Agholor.
Evan Engram has been targeted a ton the last few weeks and is way too cheap at $4,500. Not to mention, Cincy owns a 31st OPRK against opposing tight ends.
D/ST of the Week
New Orleans Saints $3,800 at DEN
It’s strange to see an elite defense facing a bad offense sitting below $4K on DraftKings. That’s just what we have here, making the Saints the best option on the board. Let’s start with their defense, ranked second in rushing yards allowed and third in total yardage surrendered. That’s really scary for an offense like the Broncos, with Denver sitting 27th in points scored and 31st in OPRK against opposing D/STs. A lot of that has to do with Drew Lock’s turnovers and sack vulnerability, putting them in a deep hole with their already lackluster running game.
With the Bengals missing Joe Burrow and Jow Mixon, the New York Giants D/ST could be a sneaky play.
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