DraftKings NFL Value Plays: Week 10 (2020)
As both the NFL and our world continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, football can be a healthy distraction, and daily fantasy sports (DFS) sites offer a fun way to get skin in the game. Let’s break down the Week 10 slate at DraftKings.
If you want to fire up some studs in your DFS lineups, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three to four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers under $6K, and at tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from last week!
Last Week’s Picks
Drew Lock (DEN): 33.2 points (6.38x)
Greg Olsen (SEA): 3.3 points (1.06x)
Last week went pretty well! Aside from an injury to Jackson, Olsen was the only complete miss, and both Chark and Lock absolutely popped off. Let’s see if I can keep the momentum rolling with this week’s value plays.
This Week’s Value Plays
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $5,600 vs. LAC
Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers gave up 15 DraftKings (DK) points to Derek Carr. The week before, they gave up 20.8 DK points to Drew Lock. Neither signal-caller is particularly impressive, yet their production would have hit (or, in Carr’s case, come close to hitting) value at Tagovailoa’s price point. What’s better for Tagovailoa’s outlook is that those were two above-average games from the Chargers — they usually give up 23.3 DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to opposing quarterbacks, which gives the rookie a higher ceiling. Also, since Miami will again have to make do without Myles Gaskin, Tagovailoa should be called upon to generate most of the yardage through the air and on the ground — his 35 rushing yards were just three short of the team lead. The rookie has a nice combination of volume-based floor and touchdown-based upside.
Honorable mention: Derek Carr (LV): $5,400 vs. DEN.
Phillip Lindsay (DEN): $5,000 at LV
Lindsay is a fantastic value against the Raiders’ porous rushing defense. They’re giving up the fourth-most DKPPG to the position (30.4), and they have surrendered the second-most receptions to the position (75) despite already having had their bye week. While Lindsay will continue splitting work with Melvin Gordon, the primary back in two crucial volume metrics (snap share and carries per game), he’s better at turning his touches into yards. Look for him to exploit Las Vegas’ defense for a handful of big plays, especially since they give up the 10th-highest rate of explosive runs (12%).
J.D. McKissic (WAS): $4,900 at DET
The Lions haven’t been able to stop the run this season. They give up the most DKPPG to the position (35.8), and opposing offenses feature their running backs on the ground against them 26.6 times per game. Through the last three weeks, McKissic has averaged 5.3 carries and 5.7 catches per game, and he should be able to turn those 11 touches into at least 14 DK points — he’s exceeded that threshold twice in his last three games. That said, McKissic is yet to score in Ron Rivera’s offense, which caps his upside. But we’ve seen him find paydirt inthe past, so I can spot him more upside than usual against a porous defense (and in a revenge game — the Lions let him go in the offseason).
Honorable mention: Antonio Gibson (WAS): $5,600 at DET.
Jalen Reagor (PHI): $4,200 at NYG
I am a big fan of Reagor. Carson Wentz sees him as a deep threat; that much is clear from his 17.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT). While the rookie has only caught eight of his 14 targets for 112 yards and a score thus far, he’s only played two games to completion, and they don’t have many other options on offense. I’ve already published my thoughts on his athletic profile and redraft value, but to hit the highlights, he has 98th-percentile burst and not much competition for targets. Wentz will look his way early and often, and that should be enough for him to hit value against the Giants, who give up the 10th-most DKPPG to wide receivers (41.4).
Josh Reynolds (LAR): $3,500 vs. SEA
It’s safe to feature any receiver who is facing the Seahawks. Seattle gives up the most DKPPG to the position (63.2) by an immense margin — there’s a larger gap between them and the second-worst Titans (48) than the Titans and the fourth-best Chiefs. Stefon Diggs (23.8 points), Gabriel Davis (17), and John Brown (17.9) all had monster weeks against them last Sunday; Brandon Aiyuk (23.1) and Kendrick Bourne (16.1) did on the Sunday prior. Reynolds leads the Rams in air yards (484) and ranks third in targets (38) entering this game, so he’s a fantastic value at this low-end price point.
Honorable mention: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): $3,900 vs. BUF.
Jordan Reed (SF): $3,500 at NO
The Saints have fared better against tight ends in recent weeks, but they still give up the seventh-most DKPPG to the position (15.3), and the Niners don’t have many options aside from Reed. It’s still to be determined whether receivers Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Taylor can play, and running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman aren’t expected to suit up. In Reed’s only full game this season (he played behind George Kittle in Week 1, got hurt and Week 3, and was getting eased into the offense in Week 9), he caught seven-of-eight targets for 50 yards and two scores. While he may not match that 24-point performance, he only needs to score 10.5 points to hit value, and that’s well within his range of outcomes.
Honorable mention: Dallas Goedert (PHI): $4,200 at NYG.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.