DraftKings Projected Roster Percentage: Week 12 (2020)
Welcome to Week 12! The end of the regular season is rapidly approaching, so I wish you the best of luck in building your bankroll before the playoffs.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Allen makes sense to target. His game has the third-highest projected point total on the slate (52.5), and the Chargers give up the ninth-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to the position (21.6). He’s a lock for a QB1 finish.
Mahomes, in contrast, has a tough opponent. The Buccaneers give up the 11th-fewest DKPPG to quarterbacks (19.1), so it seems a bit risky to drop that much salary on him. Yes, his game has the highest projected total on the slate (56), but I’m not convinced it’ll be that high-scoring.
Behind those two, we have two quarterbacks in the 10-20% range: Derek Carr and Kyler Murray. Not only is he one of the cheaper quarterbacks on the slate, but he’s also got the Falcons, and they give up the most DKPPG to quarterbacks (28.8). I would seriously consider stacking him with someone like Nelson Agholor or Darren Waller.
Murray will cost you a pretty penny, but his rushing ability gives him a higher floor than most alternatives. The matchup against New England could be better, but you can be confident that he won’t bust.
Among the best of the rest, Justin Herbert jumps out at me the most. The Bills give up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing quarterbacks (22.8), and Herbert will have to play well to keep up with Buffalo.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
We have only two names in the 20-30% range, and they couldn’t have a wider salary gap if they tried. The more expensive of the two, Dalvin Cook, finds himself in an absolute smash spot this week. Not only is he the RB1 on the year, but he’s also in a fantastic matchup. The Panthers give up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing rushers (27.8)! He should go nuts for those bold enough to roster him at $9,500.
If you’re looking for discounts, Denzel Mim might be your guy. He’s not in the greatest matchup — the Dolphins give up the 15th-most (so 17th-least) DKPPG to receivers (39), and Joe Flacco failed to throw a touchdown against them earlier in the year. That said, Mims has 96th-percentile speed. There’s always a chance for a big play, and at this price point, it could be well worth your risk.
At running back, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and James Robinson should all be viable plays. That said, expect Brian Hill to be a popular play now that we know Todd Gurley is out. The Falcons play the Raiders this week, and Las Vegas gives up the fourth-most DKPPG to running backs (28.9). We don’t have solid projections data due to the change in Gurley’s status, but he’s worth mentioning nonetheless.
Of the receivers listed, we’ve got lower-end options like Sterling Shepard and Robert Woods, along with the higher-end Tyreek Hill. Like I said about Mahomes, Hill’s matchup isn’t great, but the Buccaneers fare worse against wide receivers than quarterbacks. I would pass on both Shepard and Woods, too — you should consider Agholor or Breshad Perriman instead.
At tight end, both Waller and Travis Klece should be popular picks. They’re the two clear-cut best options — tight end is pretty much a wasteland with George Kittle sidelined and Zach Ertz underperforming. While both should be decent options, Waller will play the Falcons this week, and they give up the most DKPPG to the position.
According to sportsbooks, all four of these teams are favored, so it’s not surprising to see that they’re popular plays at D/ST. While there’s never much consensus at the position, these four options are an upgrade over your alternatives. They’re all reasonably priced, and two of them (Los Angeles and Cleveland) will play backup quarterbacks.
Of the other two, New Orleans gets a struggling Denver team riding high off a win over Miami. The Saints’ strong defense should bring them crashing back down to Earth — they just shut down the Falcons last week, a team that Denver gave up 34 points against.
Meanwhile, Las Vegas could get the Falcons without Todd Gurley and Julio Jones. If that comes to pass, they’re a fantastic value at their low-end price point, as Atlanta will struggle to move the ball.
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