FanDuel NFL Cash Game Lineup Advice: Week 12 (2020)
Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season. I hope everyone reading this (and even those not reading this) had a great Thanksgiving holiday. In a precursor of things to come after next week, there are no bye weeks to account for this weekend. There’s a total of five games that currently have an over/under set at 50 or more points on this Sunday slate of games, with four of those games having point totals that have risen since the opening line came out.
Well, it seems repetitive to say, but we are once again dealing with another round of “will they play this game due to COVID” situations. This week, it’s the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. Of course, this game won’t be included on FanDuel’s Sunday slate despite it getting postponed to Sunday, so nothing to worry there for DFS purposes. However, the game does show the volatility and fragility of lineup construction days in advance. The Lion King (the movie, not Will Fuller) provided sound advice years ago to us as children, “Be Prepared.”
I’m considering each of the players below for cash game lineups this week:
Derek Carr (LV): $7,100 at Atlanta Falcons
Derek Carr is coming off two consecutive games where Pro Football Focus has rated him with a grade of 90 or above. Seven different quarterbacks have thrown for 300 or more yards against the Falcons this season. Aside from the Seattle Seahawks, the Falcons are the worst passing defense in the NFL. The only quarterback not to have thrown a touchdown pass against Atlanta was Taysom Hill last week, but he accounted for two rushing touchdowns instead.
Thus far this season, Carr has looked every bit as good (if not better) than his 2016 campaign. Carr has three games with three touchdown passes. He has thrown for 275 or more yards five times. It’s scary to think that Carr could have even better numbers too…
Best incompletions of the week courtesy of Derek Carr.
He was outstanding against the Chiefs, and some of his best throws were dropped pic.twitter.com/TRHmxvNwaO
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) November 24, 2020
He’s in a smash spot this weekend at a great cost-effective price.
Taysom Hill (NO): $7,300 at Denver Broncos
Well, Hill is a quarterback this week…
He’s also still under-priced at his position.
Hill provides a relatively high floor due to his rushing upside. He also showed last week that his ability as a passer shouldn’t be overlooked. Don’t be fooled by recency bias with the Broncos defense against quarterbacks, either. Hill and the Saints should be able to move the ball at will this Sunday.
Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,400 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Nine different running backs have had 70 or more scrimmage yards against the Jaguars this season. There’s a legitimate chance that both Chubb and Kareem Hunt could be viable cash game plays this weekend against a terrible Jaguars defense — Chubb for the work between the 20s and Hunt for touchdown equity.
Week 11 inside-the-10 opportunities:
Kareem Hunt 4
Nick Chubb 0
Week 11 3rd down touches:
Kareem Hunt 4
Nick Chubb 0
More fantasy football RB data here: https://t.co/GxEMFb5ELW
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 23, 2020
Chubb is averaging 19.5 touches per game over the last four weeks. While Hunt has been getting (and vulturing) some of the goal-line work, this is a game where the Browns should be in command early, and both running backs will get significant playing time.
Wayne Gallman (NYG): $5,700 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals rank last in the NFL in explosive run percentage allowed over the last four weeks, according to PFF. Through that span, Gallman is fifth among running backs in FanDuel points per game, as he’s scored a touchdown in every game (and two his last game against the Philadelphia Eagles). On the season, Gallman has been out-snapped by Dion Lewis by three snaps, but over the last four weeks, Gallman has gotten most of the snaps in the Giants’ backfield.
Given the uncertainty for the Bengals’ offense — and the very likely possibility this game is a rout (even though you never can tell with the NFC East teams) — Gallman is one of the best cash game plays at running back this week.
Jakobi Meyers (NE): $5,800 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Meyers likely won’t see Patrick Peterson much (if at all) this weekend. The Cardinals have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers over the last four weeks. In that time period, Meyers is averaging 8.5 targets, 6.5 receptions, and 81 receiving yards per game. Meyers has a 30.3% target share over the last four weeks. Last week was certainly a dud, but we’re on to Arizona.
Jakobi Meyers target share by week:
Week 7: 24%
Week 8: 40%
Week 9: 40%
Week 10: 41%
Week 11: 7%
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 23, 2020
Tyreek Hill (KC): $8,600 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the last four weeks (three games), Hill is averaging 24.6 FanDuel points per game. He has a 28.1% market share of targets. He’s an alpha receiver right now.
Tyreek Hill 2020
10 rec TD = 10 games played
-1 rushing TD too
Last 3 games:
38 targets 24 rec 313 rec yards 5 TDs
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) November 23, 2020
Hunter Henry (LAC): $5,900 at Buffalo Bills
Surprisingly, the Bills are giving up a decent amount of fantasy points to the opposing passing game this year, especially tight ends. And over Los Angeles’ last three games, Henry has found himself getting more involved in the passing game. He has been targeted seven, six, and seven times, respectively, in those appearances. Henry has scored a touchdown in his last two games to boot. At sub-$6,000, he’s solid salary relief should you choose to go there.
Darren Waller (LV): $7,100 at Atlanta Falcons
Waller has the second-most targets among tight ends this season. He leads the league in red-zone receptions. He’s facing the Falcons defense that has given up the most points to opposing tight ends. I’m not sure we need anything more here.
Other notables: Travis Kelce (KC): $7,900 at DEN
Miami Dolphins D/ST: $5,000 at New York Jets
A good defense going against the winless Jets? Sign me up. The only issue is that there are cheaper defenses going against backup quarterbacks.
New York Giants D/ST: $4,300 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals this season are 31st in sacks allowed and 19th in turnovers. This was with Joe Burrow at quarterback.
Now that Burrow is gone for the season due to a horrible knee injury, the Bengals will be rolling out Brandon Allen at quarterback. Since last week’s backup (Ryan Finley) got sacked four times, don’t expect much out of Allen. Plug the G-Men in at defense.
Other notables: Cleveland Browns D/ST: $4,900 at JAC
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