The NFL’s Week 9 slate sets up very well for GPPs. It appears there will be some obvious chalk options bringing in high ownership that we can make subtle pivots away from to gain big leverage on the field. It’s also a good week to remind everyone to make sure not to succumb to recency bias by expecting what happened last week to repeat itself this week. I prefer to think about recent results in a yo-yo effect, where things that happened two games ago are more likely to happen than what happened last week, which plays well into this week’s GPP advice.
So, with that, let’s stack’em up for Week 9.
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Stacking Options
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): $7,100 / Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): $7,700 / Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): $6,800
All of the things I talked about in the intro come into play for the Vikings this week. Dalvin Cook is coming off a monster game last week against the Packers and is expected to be very highly rostered (aka: “The Chalk”) at running back this week.
However, what happens to the Vikings offense if the Lions sell out to stop the run or fall into a negative game script? In that case, they will turn to their passing offense, which could post big numbers against the Detroit secondary, especially at home. In fact, in three home starts this season, Kirk Cousins has averaged 284 passing yards with 2.7 touchdown pass per game.
The Vikings’ passing game is also very concentrated on Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson. The duo combines for about a 50% target share this season. You should soak up most of the Vikings’ passing-game production by using both wideouts in a double stack. Bring it back on the Lions side with Marvin Jones, who could see double-digit targets this week with Kenny Golladay. The Vikings secondary has allowed 193 receiving yards (29th) and 2.1 touchdowns (32nd) per game to opposing wide receivers this year.
Bring it back with: Marvin Jones (WR – DET): $6,100
Derek Carr (QB – LV): $7,000 / Darren Waller (WR – LV): $6,400
Here we have another pivot stack to consider. We’re moving away from the likely chalk stack of Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen by flipping to the other side of that matchup. The Raiders stack of Derek Carr and Darren Waller was somewhat popular last week, but it failed miserably due to Cleveland’s weather conditions. Weather will not be an issue in sunny California this week in a matchup with a Vegas total over 50 points.
The Chargers have been notorious for getting out to big leads and letting the other team come from behind this season, which feeds directly into a positive game script for Carr and the Raiders’ passing game. Waller has at least a 23% target share in six of the seven games for the Raiders this season, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed about 56 yards and one score per game to the position. That includes nine catches for 90 yards with a score to Travis Kelce, who is the best comparison to Waller volume-wise. Bring it back on the Chargers side with the cheaper and lower-rostered Chargers wideout Mike Williams, who is capable of big plays and red-zone looks.
Bring it back with: Mike Williams (WR – LAC): $6,200
James Conner (RB – PIT): $8,200 / Steelers D/ST: $5,000
A Steelers stack with James Conner and the defense should be a popular option with a tilt against the lowly Cowboys on Sunday. However, due to their hefty price tags, it might be less rostered than it should be for such a smash spot.
The Cowboys have been run all over the last five weeks, as they’ve given up 159 rushing yards (32nd) and 1.2 touchdowns (27th) per game to running backs on 5.75 YPC (32nd). With the Steelers as a two-touchdown favorite, Conner should get plenty of work on the ground. You could even take a flier on Benny Snell ($5,000) in a rare double-stack of running backs from the same team to absorb all of the Steelers’ ground attack.
Meanwhile, the Steelers defensive projection is off the charts this week, as they are top three in the league in sacks and turnovers, while the Cowboys have allowed 3.6 sacks (29th) and 2.4 turnovers (30th) per game over the last five weeks. Oh, and I didn’t even mention the Cowboys will be starting either Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush at quarterback, who have combined for a total of nine career pass attempts. Getting on the cheaper QB/WR stacks above helps pave the way to pay up for this Steelers stack.
High-Priced Stud
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF): $7,600
It will take great restraint to not plug Stefon Diggs into 100% of lineups this week. He has received over 30% of the Bills target share in four of the eight games this season and has had at least 20% every week.
This week’s matchup against the Seahawks’ leaky secondary could see Diggs get 15-plus targets as the Bills try to keep up with the Russell Wilson express. The Seahawks’ pass defense has surrendered a massive 21.6 receptions (32nd) for 269 yards (32nd) and 1.6 touchdowns (27th) per game to opposing wide receivers this season. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Diggs got at least half of that production.
Low-Owned Fliers
- Drew Lock (QB – DEN): $7,200
- James Robinson (RB – JAC): $7,300
- David Johnson (RB – HOU): $6,800
- JK Dobbins (RB – BAL): $5,300
- DJ Chark (WR – JAC): $6,400
- Marquise Brown (WR – BAL): $5,800
- John Brown (WR – BUF): $5,500
- Noah Fant (TE – DEN): $5,800
- Mike Gesicki (TE – CHI): $5,300
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Brad Richter is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
