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FanDuel NFL Value Plays: Week 12 (2020)

Nov 27, 2020

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I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! It had to be better than the Baltimore Ravens’ Thanksgiving, as their game was postponed and now appears likely to be moved to an entirely different week as more positive tests have now popped up. Hard to believe it’s Week 12 already, but here we are. The player pool is smaller than usual this week, with the three Thanksgiving games (Ravens/Steelers included) not on the slate, as well as the usual Sunday and Monday night games, so finding value will be extremely important. Let’s get to it!

Quarterback

Daniel Jones (NYG) $7,200 at CIN
Don’t look now, but Daniel Jones is playing better of late. He has had 18 or more FanDuel points in three of his last four games, and this week, he gets the Bengals. They rank 29th in DVOA versus the pass. Jones also gives you a solid floor with his rushing ability — he is averaging 45 yards on the ground over his last four contests.

Running Back

James White (NE) $5,400 vs. ARI
With Rex Burkhead placed on IR, James White no longer has to share passing-down work with him in this backfield. In fact, with Burkhead going down last week, White tied his best fantasy performance of the season with 11.3 FD points. The Patriots’ defense is not as good as it once was, and the Cardinals have an implied total of 26 points and are 2.5 points favorites, meaning the Patriots are likely going to need to pass to keep up. That equals more work for White.

Ty Johnson (NYJ) $4,500 vs. MIA
This one is a true “shot-in-the-dark,” but with La’Mical Perine going on IR, Frank Gore will step into the early-down role at running back, leaving Johnson to be the passing/change-of-pace back. Last week, after Perine went down, Johnson had four catches on six targets. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with them, gaining only 17 yards, but it’s the opportunities I like at $4,500. The Dolphins are ninth in DVOA versus the run, but they’re 32nd versus the pass — that’s bad news for Gore, but it’s good news for Johnson.

Wide Receiver

Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) $5,000 vs. CLE
The Jaguars are turning to journeymen quarterback Mike Glennon after watching Jake Luton struggle mightily over the last few weeks. Trust me, Glennon won’t fare much better, and that’s why I’m playing Shenault this week. Shenault is the type of wide receiver that does a lot of his damage on safe, short throws near the line of scrimmage, and he’ll sometimes even take a hand-off or a jet sweep. In other words, safe plays for a bad quarterback. You’ll have to check his status on Sunday, but if he is active, he is as good a punt as any. The Browns rank 30th in DVOA versus the pass, and they’ll be without their best cornerback, Denzel Ward, this weekend.

Gabriel Davis (BUF) $4,800 vs. LAC
I only like Davis if John Brown is ruled out, but he is the ultimate boom or bust player. He had 15 FD points a few weeks ago against the Seahawks, but it was sandwiched by two goose-eggs. At 6-foot-2 and 216lbs, Davis is a good end-zone threat and has three touchdowns this season on limited snaps and only 19 receptions.

Tight End

Jordan Reed (SF) $5,000 at LAR
Jordan ReedQ… sorry, Reed. I’m so used to seeing the ‘Q’ behind his name that I was starting to think that was how to spell it. But I digress. Jordan Reed, if he plays this week, is a great play at $5,000. The Rams have one of the best pass defenses in the league. In fact, they have given up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season. The best way to beat the Rams in the passing game is by throwing it over the middle to a slot wide receiver or tight end. Reed had five catches on six targets for 62 yards the week before San Francisco’s bye.

Defense

New York Giants $4,300 at CIN
There is no cheap defense that I’m really in love with this week, so the cheapest one I’d feel comfortable playing is the Giants. They get to play against a practice-squad quarterback in Brandon Allen, and only four teams have a better adjusted sack rate than do the Giants this week.

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