FanDuel Projected Roster Percentage: Week 12 (2020)
Welcome to Week 12! The end of the regular season is rapidly approaching, so I wish you the best of luck in building your bankroll before the playoffs.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
There’s really only one name to know at quarterback on FanDuel this week: Josh Allen. The third-year quarterback should be rostered in 40+% of lineups in his matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. That makes him chalk — bet on him in cash leagues, consider betting against him in tournaments. The game has the third-highest projected point total on the slate (52.5), and the Chargers give up the ninth-most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to the position (20.6). He’s a lock for a QB1 finish.
But what’s better than Allen in that matchup for $8,600? His opponent, Justin Herbert, for just $8,400. The Bills give up the fifth-most FDPPG to opposing quarterbacks (21.2), and though it’s not a big difference, the Chargers should get Chris Harris back this week, and he could make Allen’s life more difficult.
Outside of the chalky Allen, we’ve got two quarterbacks in the 10-20% range: Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr. Mahomes, a high-salary option, is always a safe bet — but targeting him against the Buccaneers, who give up the 12th-fewest FDPPG to quarterbacks (18.3), seems a bit silly.
Carr is a much better option. Not only is he one of the cheaper quarterbacks on the slate, but he’s also got the Falcons, and they give up the most FDPPG to quarterbacks (26.5). I would seriously consider stacking him with someone like Nelson Agholor or Darren Waller.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
Not much consensus this week. The only player projected to be in 20+% of rosters: Nick Chubb. He’s got a targetable matchup against the Jaguars, as they give up the sixth-most FDPPG to the position (23.6). He’s looked good enough since his return from injury to warrant confidence at his $8,400 price point.
Outside of Chubb, expect Brian Hill to be a popular play now that we know Todd Gurley is out. The Falcons play the Raiders this week, and Las Vegas gives up the fourth-most FDPPG to running backs (25.6). We don’t have solid projections data due to the change in Gurley’s status, but he’s worth mentioning nonetheless.
Other popular running backs should include Dalvin Cook, Kalen Ballage, Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Zack Moss, and Wayne Gallman. Of these options, I love Cook the most — not only is he the RB1 on the year, but he’s also in a fantastic matchup. The Panthers give up the fifth-most FDPPG to opposing rushers (23.7)! He should go nuts for those bold enough to roster him at $11,000.
Things are a little bit murkier at wide receiver. Agholor, Robby Anderson, Sterling Shepard, and Michael Pittman headline the popular bargain-bin plays; the news about D.J. Chark and Chris Conley should put Keelan Cole into that category by game time as well. They’re all decent punts facing opponents that struggle against receivers.
Of the studs, we’ve got both Rams wideouts, Stefon Diggs, and Tyreek Hill. I like Diggs a lot here, especially since John Brown will have to miss another game. While the Chargers give up the eighth-fewest FDPPG to receivers (25.7), this should be a shootout, and Los Angeles won’t have Casey Hayward this week.
At tight end, both Waller and Travis Klece should be popular picks. They’re the two clear-cut best options — tight end is pretty much a wasteland with George Kittle sidelined and Zach Ertz underperforming. While both should be decent options, Waller will play the Falcons this week, and they give up the most FDPPG to the position.
Ah, yes. Both the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins headline this list — one for their easy matchup, the other for their low-end price point. Obviously, the Dolphins are favored to hand the Jets their eleventh-straight loss — they are seven-point favorites in a game with a projected total of 44.5. That gives the Jets 18.75 projected points, a healthy bit higher than their average points per game (14.9).
Miami is a seriously smart start here. They held the Jets to zero points the last time the two teams met, and that was with Joe Flacco under center.
Outside of that game, both the Rams and Browns appear on this list. They’re both favored to take down backup quarterbacks, and both units make sense to target, as Nick Mullens and Mike Glennon aren’t particularly impressive.
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