Jason Sanders is quietly having one of the most impressive kicking performances of the past few seasons. With rookie Tua Tagovailoa leading the Dolphins to an impressive road win over the Cardinals and a 5-3 record, Sanders’ record-setting performance has mostly gone under the radar.
Sanders has made a team-record 20 consecutive field goals, including an improbable 59-yard attempt in the fourth quarter to give the Dolphins an upset 34-31 win over the Cardinals.
In my prediction section of last week’s kicker guide, I suggested that Sanders would be a solid play this past week against a Cardinals defense ranked second in the league in red-zone defense. That prediction proved correct, with Sanders finishing with 14 fantasy points and a top-five finish.
Harrison Butker, Wil Lutz, and Justin Tucker are three kickers who currently have a roster percentage of over 95% on Yahoo. What do those three kickers have in common? They have all been outscored in the last two weeks by Sergio Castillo, a 30-year-old journeyman with multiple stints in the CFL and the defunct AAF. Castillo surprisingly has 22 points in his previous two games, including two kicks of over 50-yards for the Jets.
While I am not advising you to drop any of those players in favor of Castillo, especially considering the Jets are on a bye, it is a reminder of how you can find fantasy value at the kicker position beyond just the top-ranked players.
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Week 9 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Tyler Bass (BUF) vs. Seattle: 5% rostership on Yahoo
Rookie Tyler Bass is exactly what fantasy owners hate about kickers. Bass has two games in the previous three matchups with 35 fantasy points. In his seven other games in the first nine weeks, Bass does not have a single double-digit performance. He is a risky, boom-or-bust player with a monster ceiling and the ability to stick you with just five fantasy points.
Graham Gano (NYG) at Washington: 5% rostership on Yahoo
Would you pick up the number four ranked quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, or running back on the season if he were available on your waiver wire? Of course you would! But when it comes to kickers, people give so little thought to their roster that the K4 is available in 95% of fantasy leagues.
Gano has three games of double-digit fantasy performances and an average floor of six points, yet nobody wants to roster him because he plays on the Giants. Don’t be surprised if Gano delivers another top-10 performance this week against the Eagles.
Week 9 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Robbie Gould (SF) vs. Green Bay: 68% rostership on Yahoo
Gould is on our list of bust performers for the second-straight week after a five-point game against the Packers. For some reason, managers continue to see Gould as a top-12 player at the position despite the fact that the 49ers have been decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. Gould managers should move on to other more widely available players, like Zane Gonzalez, Daniel Carlson, and Brandon McManus.
Kicker Rankings
Rank | ECR | Name | Team | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at NE | -6.5 | 41 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 53 | 47F, 6 mph wind |
2 | 11 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. DEN | -4 | 51 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 27 | Dome |
3 | 2 | Wil Lutz | NO | vs. SF | -6.5 | 54 | 10 | 18 | 9 | 37 | Dome |
4 | 7 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at ARI | 2.5 | 50 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 31 | Dome |
5 | 3 | Zane Gonzalez | ARI | vs. BUF | -2.5 | 50 | 18 | 27 | 1 | 46 | Dome |
6 | 4 | Mason Crosby | GB | vs. JAC | -13.5 | 56 | 9 | 25 | 7 | 41 | 49f, 20 mph wind |
7 | 6 | Matt Prater | DET | vs. WAS | -4 | 46 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 40 | Dome |
8 | 8 | Rodrigo Blankenship | IND | at TEN | -2 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 19 | 58 | 56F, 3 mph wind |
9 | 12 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at LV | 4 | 51 | 19 | 5 | 26 | 50 | Dome |
10 | 9 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. LAC | -1.5 | 48 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 56 | 83F, 13 mph wind |
11 | 17 | Michael Badgley | LAC | at MIA | 1.5 | 48 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 34 | 83F, 13 mph wind |
12 | 10 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. CIN | -10 | 49 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 75 | 58F, 8 mph wind |
13 | 13 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at CLE | -2.5 | 55 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 42 | 60F, 17 mph wind |
14 | 5 | Ryan Succop | TB | at CAR | -6 | 47 | 14 | 26 | 22 | 62 | 58F, rain, 4 mph wind |
15 | 14 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at NYG | -3.5 | 41 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 50 | 56F, 7 mph wind |
16 | 15 | Jason Myers | SEA | at LAR | 2 | 55 | 15 | 31 | 3 | 49 | Dome |
17 | 27 | Randy Bullock | CIN | at PIT | 10 | 49 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 58F, 8 mph wind |
18 | 16 | Graham Gano | NYG | vs. PHI | 3.5 | 41 | 24 | 1 | 31 | 56 | 56F, 7 mph wind |
19 | 18 | Kai Forbath | LAR | vs. SEA | -2 | 55 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 43 | Dome |
20 | 23 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. MIN | -2 | 45 | 6 | 2 | 29 | 37 | TBD |
21 | 21 | Joey Slye | CAR | vs. TB | 6 | 47 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 45 | 58F, rain, 4 mph wind |
22 | 19 | Cody Parkey | CLE | vs. HOU | 2.5 | 55 | 16 | 28 | 24 | 68 | 60F, 17 mph wind |
23 | 20 | Stephen Gostkowski | TEN | vs. IND | 2 | 52 | 21 | 30 | 10 | 61 | 56F, 3 mph wind |
24 | 22 | Robbie Gould | SF | at NO | 6.5 | 54 | 32 | 24 | 13 | 69 | Dome |
25 | 24 | Dan Bailey | MIN | at CHI | 2 | 45 | 1 | 29 | 11 | 41 | TBD |
26 | 25 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | at DET | 4 | 46 | 26 | 10 | 30 | 66 | Dome |
27 | 26 | Nick Folk | NE | vs. BAL | 6.5 | 41 | 30 | 7 | 17 | 54 | 47F, 6 mph wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 15th in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 17. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Week 10 Targets
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10. They could both be excellent plays in Week 10.
Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Denver: 44% rostership on Yahoo
Carlson has the be K Score of the week with a home matchup inside a dome against a Broncos team that ranks second in red-zone defense. Carson has a floor of seven points in every game this season, and he has four with over ten fantasy points. If you are looking for a new kicker this week, Carlson is your guy.
Brandon McManus (DEN) at Las Vegas: 33% rostership on Yahoo
The fantasy community continues to overlook McManus in their ECR ranking despite the big-legged kicker posting 47 fantasy points the past four weeks. McManus does not have the same floor as Carlson, but he does have a higher upside based on his long range. I like both players in this matchup, and it would not surprise me to see both of them finish in the top 10.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Michael Badgley (LAC) vs. Las Vegas: 21% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 15
My Rank: 10
Week 9 Finish: T13
Badgley made two field goals and two extra points to finish with a respectable eight fantasy points, which tied him with Justin Tucker and Wil Lutz. Unfortunately, he missed a 46-yard attempt that would have netted him a top-10 finish. With the Chargers currently ranked second in average yards per game and in the bottom half of red-zone offense, Badgley should continue to be a solid play for the remainder of the season.
Jason Sanders (MIA) at Arizona: 28% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 20
My Rank: 11
Week 9 Finish: 4
Sanders is a perfect 17-of-17 on field-goal attempts this season, and he has a team-record of 20-straight field goals made dating back to 2019. Sanders’ K Score of 42, along with the fact that he was playing indoors, indicated a strong likelihood of multiple field goal opportunities for the former University of New Mexico Lobo. Sanders came through with another strong performance, as he posted 14 fantasy points for the 28% of Yahoo managers who played him against Arizona.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Denver: 44% rostership on Yahoo
Carlson is tied for fourth in fantasy points on the season and continues to provide an excellent floor. He is an excellent play this week at home against the Broncos, and all but one of his remaining games in the fantasy season are indoors.
Other players to consider:
Mason Crosby (GB) vs. Jacksonville: 27% rostership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.