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Fantasy Football Kicker Guide Week 11 (2020)

by Andrew Swanson | @FFtoday_Andy | Featured Writer
Nov 17, 2020

Randy Bullock could get back into double figures this week against Washington.

When Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff review the tape of Sunday’s 23-16 loss on the road against the Rams, they are likely not going to be happy with what they see. For the first time this season, Russell Wilson failed to throw a touchdown pass while committing three turnovers. The defense failed to slow down the passing attack from Jared Goff, and Seattle’s running backs combined for just 51 yards.

One bright spot for the team was the performance by veteran Jason Myers, who made all three field-goal attempts, including a career-long 61-yard field goal as the first half expired.

Myers finished the week with 12 fantasy points and a top-10 finish. It was the third time in four weeks in which Myers finished with 12 points, as Seattle’s offense, the top red-zone offense on the season, has been struggling somewhat in that metric during that span.

Windy and rainy conditions negatively affected multiple games last week, including Monday Night’s torrential downpour in Foxboro between the Patriots and Ravens. This week’s forecast does not look nearly as bad, but be sure to check the weather before kickoff and avoid players playing in sustained winds above 20 mph.

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Week 10 Stud Performances from Widely-Available Kickers

Tyler Bass (BUF) @ Arizona : 13% rostership on Yahoo
For the second consecutive week, rookie Tyler Bass delivered a monster fantasy performance. Bass made three 50-yard field goals and all three extra points to finish with 18 fantasy points. After starting the year with six straight games of seven or fewer points, the sixth-round pick from Georgia Southern has been on a tear as of late, with 59 fantasy points in his last four games. The Bills are on a bye this week, so you should not use a waiver claim on Bass. But he should be considered an option next week, as you can no longer discount his impressive performances.

Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Cincinnati: 33% rostership on Yahoo
Boswell made three field goals and three extra points to finish with 14 fantasy points on the week. It was his first double-digit fantasy point performance of the year and the first time in 2020 with three or more made field goals. Boswell has a lower floor than Tyler Bass, but if you are looking for a high ceiling, Boswell is not the kicker for you.

Week 10 Dud Performances from Widely-Owned Kickers

Justin Tucker (BAL) @ New England: 99% rostership on Yahoo
Tucker made a short field goal and two extra points to finish with a season-low five fantasy points on Sunday. Although he has not scored double-digit points in his last three games, Tucker continues to be one of the best fantasy kickers and should not be dropped. Chalk this one up to terrible weather and a negative game script.

Kicker Rankings

Rank ECR Name Team Opp. Spread O/U OPP RZ D RZ EFF* OFF RNK K Score** Weather
1 1 Harrison Butker KC at LV -7 56 18 22 2 42 Dome
2 3 Wil Lutz NO vs. ATL -7.5 53 31 20 12 63 Dome
3 4 Younghoe Koo ATL at NO 7.5 53 30 5 5 40 Dome
4 2 Justin Tucker BAL vs. TEN -7 47 28 17 22 67 57F, 6 mph wind
5 5 Jason Sanders MIA at DEN -3 45 2 19 29 50 46F, 6 mph wind
6 6 Zane Gonzalez ARI at SEA 5.5 58 22 27 1 50 47F, light rain, 9 mph wind
7 12 Michael Badgley LAC vs. NYJ -10 47 6 13 4 23 Dome
8 7 Rodrigo Blankenship IND vs. GB 2.5 50 23 7 15 45 Dome
9 19 Randy Bullock CIN at WAS pk 46 7 6 18 31 59F, 6 mph wind
10 9 Daniel Carlson LV vs. KC 7 56 29 10 13 52 Dome
11 10 Matt Prater DET at CAR 2 49 12 9 17 38 60F, 2 mph wind
12 11 Ryan Succop TB vs. LAR -3.5 48 9 25 14 48 TBD
13 8 Chris Boswell PIT at JAC -10 46 11 24 24 59 76F, 11 mph wind
14 16 Greg Zuerlein DAL at MIN 9 49 4 3 28 35 Dome
15 13 Jason Myers SEA vs. ARI -5.5 58 3 31 3 37 47F, light rain, 9 mph wind
16 14 Mason Crosby GB at IND -2.5 50 19 28 6 53 Dome
17 15 Brandon McManus DEN vs. MIA 3 45 25 4 26 55 46F, 6 mph wind
18 17 Dan Bailey MIN vs. DAL -9 49 21 29 9 59 Dome
19 18 Joey Slye CAR vs. DET -2 49 26 15 21 62 60F, 2 mph wind
20 20 Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU vs. NE 2 47 15 11 20 46 Dome
21 21 Nick Folk NE at HOU -2 47 14 8 19 41 Dome
22 22 Kai Forbath LAR at TB 3.5 48 20 16 7 43 TBD
23 23 Cody Parkey CLE vs. PHI -2 46 24 26 23 73 62F, 16 mph wind
24 28 Sam Ficken NYJ at LAC 10 47 8 0 32 40 Dome
25 24 Dustin Hopkins WAS vs. CIN pk 46 27 12 28 67 59F, 6 mph wind
26 25 Jake Elliott PHI at CLE 2 46 13 21 27 61 62F, 16 mph wind
27 26 Stephen Gostkowski TEN at BAL 7 47 32 30 11 73 57F, 6 mph wind
28 27 Chase McLaughlin JAC vs. PIT 10 46 10 18 25 53 76F, 11 mph wind

 
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 15th in red-zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 17. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.

**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.

Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.

Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 11 who could be an excellent play Week 11.

Michael Badgley (LAC) vs. Jets: 23% rostership on Yahoo
Badgley disappointed last week with three extra points and no field goal attempts on the road against Miami. He projects to have a much better performance this week at home against a Jets defense that ranks 6th in red-zone percentage. Look for a floor of seven points and a ceiling of 14 this week for Badgley in the climate-controlled comforts of Sofi Stadium.

Randy Bullock (CIN) @ Washington: 17% rostership on Yahoo
After five double-digit games out of six in the middle of the season, Bullock cooled down with seven and four points respectively, against the Titans and Steelers. He is not an every week player, but he can be inserted into lineups in the right situation and against the right opponent. The Bengals struggle in red-zone offense and the Football Team are top ten in limiting opponents to touchdowns in the red zone. Assuming the weather report does not change, look for Bullock to get back into double figures this week against Washington.

Prediction Review

Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.

Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Denver: 44% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 11
My Rank: 5
Week 10 Finish: 5
Carlson finished with 15 fantasy points and a top-5 finish in his home matchup against the Broncos. Although the industry ranked Carlson outside of the top-10, his K Score of 27 indicated he was in line for monster fantasy week, and he came through with three field goals and four extra points. Carlson is now second on the season in fantasy points scored and should be a top-10 play the remainder of the year.

Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Las Vegas: 33% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 9
Week 10 Finish: 14
McManus made both of his field-goal attempts, but a negative game script created by a poor showing by Drew Lock and the Denver offense limited his outlook and his production to just eight fantasy points. While he was certainly not a bust with eight points scored, he should have had more opportunities had the Broncos not turned the ball over so much on Sunday.

Waiver Wired

Top Add

Jason Sanders (MIA) @ Denver: 66% rostership on Yahoo
Only the Vikings give up more fantasy points to opposing kickers in 2020 than the Broncos, a team that ranks second in red zone defense but 17th in total yards per game. The Dolphins will move the ball against the Broncos, but they will struggle to convert drives into touchdown scores. Add in the fact that the weather looks to be fine and the thin air, and you are looking for a monster game for Sanders.

Other players to consider:

Harrison Butker (KC) @ Las Vegas: 79% rostership on Yahoo

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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.

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