Fantasy Football Kicker Guide Week 11 (2020)
When Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks coaching staff review the tape of Sunday’s 23-16 loss on the road against the Rams, they are likely not going to be happy with what they see. For the first time this season, Russell Wilson failed to throw a touchdown pass while committing three turnovers. The defense failed to slow down the passing attack from Jared Goff, and Seattle’s running backs combined for just 51 yards.
One bright spot for the team was the performance by veteran Jason Myers, who made all three field-goal attempts, including a career-long 61-yard field goal as the first half expired.
Myers finished the week with 12 fantasy points and a top-10 finish. It was the third time in four weeks in which Myers finished with 12 points, as Seattle’s offense, the top red-zone offense on the season, has been struggling somewhat in that metric during that span.
Windy and rainy conditions negatively affected multiple games last week, including Monday Night’s torrential downpour in Foxboro between the Patriots and Ravens. This week’s forecast does not look nearly as bad, but be sure to check the weather before kickoff and avoid players playing in sustained winds above 20 mph.
Week 10 Stud Performances from Widely-Available Kickers
Tyler Bass (BUF) @ Arizona : 13% rostership on Yahoo
For the second consecutive week, rookie Tyler Bass delivered a monster fantasy performance. Bass made three 50-yard field goals and all three extra points to finish with 18 fantasy points. After starting the year with six straight games of seven or fewer points, the sixth-round pick from Georgia Southern has been on a tear as of late, with 59 fantasy points in his last four games. The Bills are on a bye this week, so you should not use a waiver claim on Bass. But he should be considered an option next week, as you can no longer discount his impressive performances.
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Cincinnati: 33% rostership on Yahoo
Boswell made three field goals and three extra points to finish with 14 fantasy points on the week. It was his first double-digit fantasy point performance of the year and the first time in 2020 with three or more made field goals. Boswell has a lower floor than Tyler Bass, but if you are looking for a high ceiling, Boswell is not the kicker for you.
Week 10 Dud Performances from Widely-Owned Kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) @ New England: 99% rostership on Yahoo
Tucker made a short field goal and two extra points to finish with a season-low five fantasy points on Sunday. Although he has not scored double-digit points in his last three games, Tucker continues to be one of the best fantasy kickers and should not be dropped. Chalk this one up to terrible weather and a negative game script.
|Rank||ECR||Name||Team||Opp.||Spread||O/U||OPP RZ D||RZ EFF*||OFF RNK||K Score**||Weather|
|1||1||Harrison Butker||KC||at LV||-7||56||18||22||2||42||Dome|
|2||3||Wil Lutz||NO||vs. ATL||-7.5||53||31||20||12||63||Dome|
|3||4||Younghoe Koo||ATL||at NO||7.5||53||30||5||5||40||Dome|
|4||2||Justin Tucker||BAL||vs. TEN||-7||47||28||17||22||67||57F, 6 mph wind|
|5||5||Jason Sanders||MIA||at DEN||-3||45||2||19||29||50||46F, 6 mph wind|
|6||6||Zane Gonzalez||ARI||at SEA||5.5||58||22||27||1||50||47F, light rain, 9 mph wind|
|7||12||Michael Badgley||LAC||vs. NYJ||-10||47||6||13||4||23||Dome|
|8||7||Rodrigo Blankenship||IND||vs. GB||2.5||50||23||7||15||45||Dome|
|9||19||Randy Bullock||CIN||at WAS||pk||46||7||6||18||31||59F, 6 mph wind|
|10||9||Daniel Carlson||LV||vs. KC||7||56||29||10||13||52||Dome|
|11||10||Matt Prater||DET||at CAR||2||49||12||9||17||38||60F, 2 mph wind|
|12||11||Ryan Succop||TB||vs. LAR||-3.5||48||9||25||14||48||TBD|
|13||8||Chris Boswell||PIT||at JAC||-10||46||11||24||24||59||76F, 11 mph wind|
|14||16||Greg Zuerlein||DAL||at MIN||9||49||4||3||28||35||Dome|
|15||13||Jason Myers||SEA||vs. ARI||-5.5||58||3||31||3||37||47F, light rain, 9 mph wind|
|16||14||Mason Crosby||GB||at IND||-2.5||50||19||28||6||53||Dome|
|17||15||Brandon McManus||DEN||vs. MIA||3||45||25||4||26||55||46F, 6 mph wind|
|18||17||Dan Bailey||MIN||vs. DAL||-9||49||21||29||9||59||Dome|
|19||18||Joey Slye||CAR||vs. DET||-2||49||26||15||21||62||60F, 2 mph wind|
|20||20||Ka’imi Fairbairn||HOU||vs. NE||2||47||15||11||20||46||Dome|
|21||21||Nick Folk||NE||at HOU||-2||47||14||8||19||41||Dome|
|22||22||Kai Forbath||LAR||at TB||3.5||48||20||16||7||43||TBD|
|23||23||Cody Parkey||CLE||vs. PHI||-2||46||24||26||23||73||62F, 16 mph wind|
|24||28||Sam Ficken||NYJ||at LAC||10||47||8||0||32||40||Dome|
|25||24||Dustin Hopkins||WAS||vs. CIN||pk||46||27||12||28||67||59F, 6 mph wind|
|26||25||Jake Elliott||PHI||at CLE||2||46||13||21||27||61||62F, 16 mph wind|
|27||26||Stephen Gostkowski||TEN||at BAL||7||47||32||30||11||73||57F, 6 mph wind|
|28||27||Chase McLaughlin||JAC||vs. PIT||10||46||10||18||25||53||76F, 11 mph wind|
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 15th in red-zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 17. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines, and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 11 who could be an excellent play Week 11.
Michael Badgley (LAC) vs. Jets: 23% rostership on Yahoo
Badgley disappointed last week with three extra points and no field goal attempts on the road against Miami. He projects to have a much better performance this week at home against a Jets defense that ranks 6th in red-zone percentage. Look for a floor of seven points and a ceiling of 14 this week for Badgley in the climate-controlled comforts of Sofi Stadium.
Randy Bullock (CIN) @ Washington: 17% rostership on Yahoo
After five double-digit games out of six in the middle of the season, Bullock cooled down with seven and four points respectively, against the Titans and Steelers. He is not an every week player, but he can be inserted into lineups in the right situation and against the right opponent. The Bengals struggle in red-zone offense and the Football Team are top ten in limiting opponents to touchdowns in the red zone. Assuming the weather report does not change, look for Bullock to get back into double figures this week against Washington.
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Daniel Carlson (LV) vs. Denver: 44% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 11
My Rank: 5
Week 10 Finish: 5
Carlson finished with 15 fantasy points and a top-5 finish in his home matchup against the Broncos. Although the industry ranked Carlson outside of the top-10, his K Score of 27 indicated he was in line for monster fantasy week, and he came through with three field goals and four extra points. Carlson is now second on the season in fantasy points scored and should be a top-10 play the remainder of the year.
Brandon McManus (DEN) @ Las Vegas: 33% rostership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 9
Week 10 Finish: 14
McManus made both of his field-goal attempts, but a negative game script created by a poor showing by Drew Lock and the Denver offense limited his outlook and his production to just eight fantasy points. While he was certainly not a bust with eight points scored, he should have had more opportunities had the Broncos not turned the ball over so much on Sunday.
Jason Sanders (MIA) @ Denver: 66% rostership on Yahoo
Only the Vikings give up more fantasy points to opposing kickers in 2020 than the Broncos, a team that ranks second in red zone defense but 17th in total yards per game. The Dolphins will move the ball against the Broncos, but they will struggle to convert drives into touchdown scores. Add in the fact that the weather looks to be fine and the thin air, and you are looking for a monster game for Sanders.
Other players to consider:
Harrison Butker (KC) @ Las Vegas: 79% rostership on Yahoo
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