The schedule makers for the NFL created an odd scheduling quirk last week. On a day in which five of the fourteen games were adversely affected by sustained winds of over 25 mph with gusts over 40 mph, only one game was scheduled in a dome.
The high winds affected coaching decisions across the league and made even trustworthy kickers like Wil Lutz miss otherwise easy kicks. To make things even worse, the two kickers who played indoors did not have good days, as Rodrigo Blankenship missed two extra points, and Matt Prater shanked a 45-yard kick wide left.
It was not a great day for kickers across the board. Only seven kickers topped double digits in fantasy points, and only two of them have ownership rates over 60% in Yahoo leagues. Chances are your kicker did not give you the type of production you were hoping for this week, with four kickers of over 75% ownership scoring five or fewer points.
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Week 8 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Michael Badgley (LAC) @ Denver: 21% ownership on Yahoo
Badgley enjoyed the friendly kicking confines of Empower Field at Mile High to kick three field goals and three extra points in the thin air of Denver. It was only the second time this season in which Badgely reached double figures in fantasy points, as he has made a career-low 75% of his kicks in 2020. While I do not project Badgley to continue to be a top performer, he does have streaming value going forward, depending on the matchup, including this week at home against the Raiders.
Sergio Castillo (NYJ) @ Kansas City: 0% ownership on Yahoo
Castillo filled in for the injured Sam Ficken to make three field goals at Arrowhead, including a 50-yard attempt. The 30-year-old journeyman with stints in the CFL and XFL played well on Sunday, but he plays on one of the worst offenses in the league and is not someone who should be added in leagues going forward.
Week 8 Dud Performances from widely-owned kickers
Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) vs. Detroit: 74% ownership on Yahoo
For the second-straight week, a top-5 ranked kicker taking on the Detroit Lions in the climate-controlled environment of a dome delivered a dud performance. Just like Younghoe Koo the week before, Blankenship delivered the first dud performance of his 2020 season. Blankenship missed two extra points and did not have a field goal opportunity in a blowout win for the Colts. I believe Hot Rod will bounce back this week at home against the Ravens.
Robbie Gould (SF) @ Seattle: 74% ownership on Yahoo
A negative game script for the 49ers chasing points against the Seahawks limited the opportunity for Gould to receive field goal opportunities. Gould continues to see a high ownership percentage despite three games of five or fewer fantasy points in his last five games. Gould is one of the better kickers in the league, but his fantasy value continues to be limited this year by the struggling San Francisco offense.
Kicker Rankings
| Rank | ECR | Name | Team | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 3 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. DEN | -3 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 14 | Dome |
| 2 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at IND | -3 | 47 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 57 | Dome |
| 3 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. CAR | -10 | 52 | 11 | 22 | 4 | 37 | 67F, 20 mph wind |
| 4 | 10 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at LAC | -3 | 54 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 28 | Dome |
| 5 | 4 | Matt Prater | DET | at MIN | -2.5 | 54 | 8 | 17 | 22 | 47 | Dome |
| 6 | 5 | Zane Gonzalez | ARI | vs. MIA | -6 | 48 | 21 | 27 | 1 | 49 | Dome |
| 7 | 6 | Rodrigo Blankenship | IND | vs. BAL | 3 | 47 | 31 | 9 | 17 | 57 | Dome |
| 8 | 8 | Ryan Succop | TB | vs. NO | -4.5 | 55 | 32 | 29 | 14 | 75 | 75F, 16 mph wind |
| 9 | 9 | Wil Lutz | NO | at TB | 4.5 | 55 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 39 | 75F, 16 mph wind |
| 10 | 15 | Michael Badgley | LAC | vs. LV | 3 | 54 | 22 | 11 | 2 | 35 | Dome |
| 11 | 20 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at ARI | -6 | 48 | 2 | 12 | 28 | 42 | Dome |
| 12 | 7 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at DAL | 20 | 23 | 25 | 68 | Dome | ||
| 13 | 11 | Joey Slye | CAR | at KC | 10 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 50 | 67F, 20 mph wind |
| 14 | 12 | Brandon McManus | DEN | at ATL | -3 | 48 | 29 | 3 | 27 | 59 | Dome |
| 15 | 13 | Mason Crosby | GB | at SF | -2.5 | 51 | 9 | 25 | 9 | 43 | 71F, 7 mph wind |
| 16 | 14 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | at JAC | -4 | 52 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 39 | 72F, rain 18 mph wind |
| 17 | 19 | Stephen Gostkowski | TEN | vs. CHI | -6.5 | 46 | 1 | 30 | 5 | 36 | 70F, 7 mph wind |
| 18 | 16 | Robbie Gould | SF | vs. GB | 2.5 | 51 | 28 | 24 | 12 | 64 | 71F, 7 mph wind |
| 19 | 23 | Nick Folk | NE | at NYJ | -7.5 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 29 | TBD |
| 20 | 17 | Jason Myers | SEA | at BUF | -2 | 55 | 17 | 31 | 3 | 51 | 63F, 3 mph wind |
| 21 | 18 | Tyler Bass | BUF | vs. SEA | 2 | 55 | 24 | 19 | 13 | 56 | 63F, 3 mph wind |
| 22 | 21 | Dan Bailey | MIN | vs. DET | -2.5 | 54 | 26 | 28 | 16 | 70 | Dome |
| 23 | 22 | Graham Gano | NYG | at WAS | 3.3 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 31 | 37 | 65F, 2 mph wind |
| 24 | 27 | Greg Zuerlein | DAL | vs. PIT | 18 | 8 | 7 | 33 | Dome | ||
| 25 | 24 | Dustin Hopkins | WAS | vs. NYG | -3.3 | 43 | 6 | 15 | 30 | 51 | 65F, 2 mph wind |
| 26 | 25 | Josh Lambo | JAC | vs. HOU | 4 | 52 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 60 | 72F, rain 18 mph wind |
| 27 | 26 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at TEN | 6.5 | 46 | 30 | 2 | 29 | 61 | 70F, 7 mph wind |
| 28 | 28 | Sergio Castillo | NYJ | vs. NE | 7.5 | 42 | 15 | 0 | 32 | 47 | TBD |
*Red-zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Chiefs rank 10th in red-zone efficiency; therefore Harrison Butker has an RZ EFF score of 22. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 9.
Michael Badgley (LAC) vs. Las Vegas: 21% ownership on Yahoo
Badgley posted his best game of the season with 15 fantasy points against the Broncos. His K Score of 35 and a home matchup in a dome against the Raiders projects to be an excellent opportunity for another double-digit performance. If you are looking for a kicker with a high ceiling and floor this week, Badgley could be your guy.
Jason Sanders (MIA) @ Arizona: 28% ownership on Yahoo
After scoring just ten combined points in his last two games, Sanders fell out of favor of many fantasy owners and landed on the waiver wire. While I don’t like the Dolphins offense as much with Tua under center, Sanders does have value in certain situations as a streaming option against formidable red zone defenses like the Cardinals.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Jason Myers (SEA) vs. San Francisco: 21% ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 13
My Rank: 10
Week 8 Finish: T10
Myers came through with a K1 performance with four extra points and a 40-yard field goal attempt. Had he not shanked an extra point, Myers would have delivered another double-digit performance like last week and finished in the Top 10 at the position. The Seahawks continue to be one of the best offenses in the league and one of the more efficient red zone teams. This is good for Myers in the sense that he is one of the least likely to goose a fantasy manager, but he does not have the high upside of other kickers.
Brandon McManus (DEN) vs. LA Chargers: 28% ownership on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 16
My Rank: 11
Week 8 Finish: T10
McManus made all four extra-point attempts and his lone field goal opportunity to finish tied for 10th place on the day. Although the big-legged kicker from Denver did not top double-digits in fantasy points, in a week in which so many other higher-ranked kickers disappointed, McManus’ seven points could have been the difference in your matchup.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Zane Gonzalez (ARZ) vs. Miami: 28% ownership on Yahoo
Chances are Gonzalez was dropped in your league during Arizona’s Week 8 bye. Gonzo projects to be a top-12 play the rest of the season, and I have him ranked 6th overall this week in a nice matchup at home against Miami.
Other players to consider:
Michael Badgley (LAC) vs. Las Vegas: 21% ownership on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
