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FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 10

by Rob Searles | @RobBob17 | Featured Writer
Nov 14, 2020

James Conner gets a solid bounce-back opportunity this week.

With the massive uptick in COVID-19 cases across the country, let’s take matters into our own hands and be proactive here. Let this serve as a friendly reminder to mask up when leaving the house, especially with the holidays right around the corner.

Below are my picks for Week 10 of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.

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Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) vs BUF – Over 23.0
The overall QB1 continues to play lights out in Year Two of Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense. With the Cardinals ranking first in the NFL in yards per game, suffice it to say that Kingsbury’s “That Big XII gimmick stuff won’t translate to the NFL” detractors are oddly quiet these days. Murray’s domination has seen him surpass this projection in 100% of his games so far in 2020. Whether it be through the air and/or on the ground, the former Heisman Trophy winner will likely surpass this projection before the fourth quarter even begins.

Carson Wentz (QB – PHI) @ NYG – Under 18.2
I’m old enough to remember when Carson Wentz was an MVP front runner in the National Football League. Boy, how the times have changed. Despite getting Alshon Jeffrey and Miles Sanders back following their bye week, I just don’t trust this Eagles offense whatsoever. Despite having the sixth most passing attempts across the NFL, the Eagles rank 27th in passing yards and 21st in passing touchdowns. Granted, Wentz could do himself some favors by finding production with his legs, but I don’t expect him to hit these numbers with having to rely on his arm and this Eagles’ passing attack.

James Conner (RB – PIT) vs CIN – Over 14.9
Considering Pittsburgh’s collective Week 9 dud inside Jerry’s World against the junior varsity Dallas Cowboys, one should expect a more complete game back home against a lowly divisional opponent. Despite having only a single “blow up” game where he exceeded 20 fantasy points, Conner has been one of the most consistent options at the most volatile position in fantasy. Having recorded 12.6 or more fantasy points in six of his eight games, this feels like a huge bounce-back opportunity for Conner and the Steelers’ running game. Going up against a Bengals defense that ranks 29th against the run and just surrendered 218 ground yards to Tennessee in their last game, my money’s on Conner and the over in this one.

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET) vs WAS – Under 13.3
With Darrell Bevell and the Detroit Lions resorting to the dreaded committee approach for their backfield, this is still a backfield to avoid. Being that Swift has yet to achieve this kind of fantasy production throughout his rookie campaign, I’m not expecting Swift to have his best game yet in Week 10 against a Washington defense that is surprisingly stout. With Washington ranking 11th in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed, the Mo-Town running back carousel continues to allocate their touches accordingly, preventing any one ball carrier from separating from the pack.

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) @ NYG – Under 14.4
The second-year back returns to the Eagles lineup in Week 10 after missing the past three weeks with a knee injury. While Sanders was certainly playing at a high level prior to his knee injury, I’m not expecting the former Penn State running back to pick up right where he left off. Traveling to the Meadowlands for a date against the divisional G-Men, Sanders will have his work cut out for him against New York’s defensive front that ranks sixth in stopping the run. I’m calling for Sanders to just narrowly miss the over.

Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) @ DET – Over 13.5
In Alex Smith’s first start since his life-threatening leg injury from 2018, you really couldn’t ask for a more accommodating matchup. Playing in an empty dome, against Matt Patricia’s defensive unit that is 28th in points allowed and 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed, I’m calling for Scary Terry and Patrick Mahomes’ former Kansas City Chief quarterback mentor to hook up early and often. Dial-up 100 yards and a receiving score for McLaurin against Detroit’s young secondary.

Chris Godwin (WR – TB) @ CAR – Under 11.4
Yowza. Tampa Bay’s offense laid quite the egg in front of the national TV audience last week on Sunday Night Football at home against the New Orleans Saints. Antonio Brown’s arrival makes it difficult to rely on consistent fantasy production out of Godwin. Considering that Godwin has exceeded these projections only two times so far in 2020 – games in which Godwin scored a receiving touchdown – I’m not banking on Godwin to come down with a touchdown grab against a Carolina defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed. Week 10 could present more complications for this Buccaneers passing offense.

Chase Claypool (WR – PIT) vs CIN – Under 11.3
Circling back on my expectations for this particular matchup, I’m envisioning a game filled with plenty of ground and pound for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, I wouldn’t necessarily put it past offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner to dial-up Claypool on a few jet sweeps, especially near the goal line to get the rookie receiver going. But with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster beginning to reestablish themselves in Pittsburgh’s passing attack, mixed with the Steelers likely desire to run the ball early and often in a game that should be well in hand, bigger fantasy days are ahead for the former Notre Dame wide receiver.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) @ LV – Over 10.9
Averaging 12 targets per game over the past two weeks, Drew Lock’s reliance on his rookie wide receiver has been on full display. With the increased target share, Jeudy has responded with 11 receptions, 198 yards, and a score. Playing in the Las Vegas Death Star, the Broncos will likely be forced to play catch up against a Raiders offense that is no stranger to putting points on the board, ranking 11th in scoring offense. Aiding in Jeudy’s Week 10 outlook is the fact that the Raiders rank 26th in passing yards allowed. Jeudy’s hot streak continues in this AFC West matchup.

Austin Hooper (TE – CLE) vs HOU – Under 8.5
Kevin Stefanski and the Cleveland Browns welcome back Nick Chubb in Week 10, reigniting their running back tandem with Kareem Hunt. Despite losing Odell Beckham Jr. for the year, Hooper has yet to provide a quality return on Cleveland’s $44 million investment in the former Atlanta Falcons tight end. Factor in the weather forecast in Cleveland on Sunday, which includes a high probability of rain and up to 30 MPH wind, my guess is that the offense will revolve around Cleveland’s two-headed monster rushing attack. Hooper will need to come down with a touchdown catch in order to hit the over.

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @RobBob17.

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