Below are my picks for Week 11 of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.
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Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) @ DEN – Under 16.0
Despite starting his NFL career by going 3-0 in as many starts, the statistical prowess just simply hasn’t been there for the former Alabama quarterback. Having surpassed 170 passing yards in only one start, it’s impossible to trust Tua for fantasy purposes at this stage of his young career. With Chan Gailey’s world-renowned running game leading the way for Miami, fellow rookie Salvon Ahmed should continue his recent surge while Tua remains more of a game manager.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) @ LV – Over 24.2
Quick question: Why on Earth have we made it all the way to Week 11 and this is the first time that the biggest star in today’s NFL has made it to the Over/Under Challenge? That’s neither here nor there, but it still deems mentioning. Mahomes and the rest of the Run It Back 2020 Tour will look to avenge their lone loss of the season as they enter the Las Vegas Death Star for a Sunday Night tilt against the Raiders. With the defending Super Bowl MVP well on his way to capturing his second regular season MVP in his first three seasons as a starter, “Patrick Don’t Call Me Pat” will have yet another jaw-dropping primetime performance as he easily exceeds the over.
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) vs ATL – Over 19.5
With Sean Payton justifiably tuning out the fantasy community by handing the keys of his offense over to Taysom “Why Am I Tight End Eligible?” Hill, all eyes will be on the Saints on Sunday. You won’t catch me echoing the fantasy community by pretending like I know Sean Payton’s offense better than him by demanding that 30 Interception Club Member Jameis Winston should be starting over the electric Hill. Even with the quarterback change, Kamara is the unquestioned focal point of this offense. Even though Kamara finds himself going up against a Falcons front that ranks sixth in stopping the run, I fully envision Taysom, Kamara, and the rest of the Saints to go marching in at home on Sunday.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) @ IND – Under 15.2
Can you believe that it’s been since Week 4 that Aaron Jones has reached this projection? With the Packers fortunate not to have dropped two out of their last three following last week’s stinker at home to Jacksonville, Week 11 will certainly be their toughest matchup since visiting Tampa Bay back in mid-October. With the Colts ranking fourth at defending the run, I’m expecting Aaron Rodgers to force targets left and right to Davante Adams as the running game struggles to get much of anything going. Jones will need to maximize his touches as a receiver out of the backfield in order to achieve the over in Week 11.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) vs GB – Under 10.6
Why are we still trying to make Jonathan Taylor happen? Over the past three weeks, Taylor’s offensive snap percentages are as follows: 34%, 31%, and 24%.
Can’t we find a more intriguing running back to discuss than a struggling rookie who’s playing himself out of his team’s backfield committee? Chalk Week 11 up as a success for Taylor if he somehow finds a way to exceed 10.6 offensive snaps for the Colts as they continue to leave their second-round draft pick in the dust.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) vs ATL – Over 14.4
Allow me to make myself abundantly clear, just in case there was any confusion during my Alvin Kamara bit earlier: Sean Payton knows more about offensive football, particularly his own offense, than a bunch of fantasy football nerds who have never touched a set of shoulder pads in their lives. I’m sure Payton has heard the outside noise surrounding his infatuation for his Swiss Army Knife in Week 11’s starting quarterback, Taysom Hill. I wouldn’t put it past Payton to take advantage of this relatively easy matchup by showing off his new toy to the football world. With Atlanta ranking 31st at defending the pass, Hill and Thomas will be able to connect early and often as Drew Brees quickly becomes old news in the Big Easy.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN) @ WAS – Over 11.9
Over the past month, the slightly overlooked rookie receiver has quietly put together a stretch of consistent, double-digit fantasy production. In a Week 11 mouth-watering matchup against a Washington secondary that surrenders the most passing yards across the NFL, I’m expecting the former Clemson Tiger to maintain his recent hot streak and surpass the over going up against an exposable defense.
Jakobi Meyers (WR – NE) @ HOU – Under 10.8
I’m a big believer in Less Is More. With that being said, I’m not going to waste your time with unnecessary statistics when the easiest answer is right beneath our nose. This Patriots offense is at its best when Cam Newton sticks the ball into the gut of his running back(s). Do you really want to trust a wide receiver playing in an offense that has attempted 17 or fewer passes in two of their past four games? Didn’t think so. Don’t overthink this one. If Meyers is the beneficiary of another Josh McDaniels trick play, then that one’s on me, but I’ll take my chances.
Travis Fulgham (WR – PHI) @ CLE – Under 10.2
I’m going to circle back a bit. Why is it necessary to include a member of the Philadelphia Eagles in pretty much every single installment of the Over/Under Challenge? If you were (for whatever reason) late to the I Won’t Touch This Eagles Offense With A Ten Foot Pole Party, then I hope last week’s performance against the Giants was all you needed to see. With that being said, why are we discussing an Eagles receiver that caught just one measly pass last week? Aren’t there more viable receiving options across the rest of the NFL landscape worth talking about? Or not.
Eric Ebron (TE – PIT) @ JAX – Under 8.2
I’ll be the first one to admit that my read on this Pittsburgh offense over the past couple of weeks has been a bit off. In matchups that would appear to be cakewalks on paper against the Cowboys and Bengals, the Steelers have struggled to get their running game going. Whoops. Third time’s the charm, right?! In yet another sleepwalking matchup against the lowly Jaguars, I’m calling for James Conner and the Pittsburgh running game to be the focal point as Ebron will need to find pay dirt in order to hit the over in Week 11.
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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @RobBob17.