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FantasyPros Over/Under Challenge Advice: Week 12

by Rob Searles | @RobBob17 | Featured Writer
Nov 29, 2020

Below are my picks for Week 12 of the Over/Under Challenge sponsored by BetMGM.

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Josh Allen (QB – BUF) vs LAC – Over 23.2
Coming off Buffalo’s Week 11 bye, Allen and the Bills return with a tasty matchup against Justin Herbert and the Chargers. With Herbert slinging the pill around the yard at such a high level throughout his rookie year, the forecast is calling for a 60-minute shootout in western New York. The Chargers rank 24th in points allowed and 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. Which translates to music to Allen’s fantasy managers’ ears. Allen will be his usual productive self on the ground, while also providing enough ammunition through the air.

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) @ BUF – Over 20.0
Following Joe Burrow’s devastating ACL injury from Week 11, the 2020 NFL Rookie of the Year award has essentially come down to a two-man between a pair of Justin’s: Herbert and Vikings rookie sensation receiver Justin Jefferson. Should be a fun race to watch, especially if the Vikings decide to, ya know, throw the ball occasionally to their talented receiver. Even though Jefferson ranks seventh in the NFL in receiving yards, the Vikings coaching staff continues to hold him back, ranking 45th across the league in targets. But back to Herbert. Don’t overthink this one. Herbert has exceeded 20 fantasy points in all but one of his starts this year. I’m not worried in the slightest about Sunday being the second time.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) @ DEN – Over 16.1
With the Saints traveling to the Mile High City to face the quarterbackless Denver Broncos, it’s becoming quite clear that New Orleans will be able to sleepwalk their way to an easy road victory. Taysom Hill established himself as a quarterback to be taken seriously (eat your heart out, armchair quarterback evaluators) last week in his debut against the Atlanta Falcons, but I can’t imagine the Saints will need to put the ball in the air too often in this one. Kamara will be able to feast as the Broncos offense should be quite laughable on Sunday, considering the unfortunate circumstances surrounding COVID-19.

Wayne Gallman (RB – NYG) @ CIN – Over 11.7
Over the past four weeks, Gallman has been operating as the primary ball carrier for the New York Giants in the wake of Saquon Barkley’s and Devonta Freeman’s absence. Gallman has not disappointed in the slightest, eclipsing 54 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in each of the past four games. After losing quarterback Joe Burrow for the season last week, I’m envisioning that the Giants will have ample opportunity to stick the ball in Gallman’s gut and play ball control with a lead. Which will be relatively easy, considering the Bengals rank 30th in stopping the run.

Todd Gurley (RB – ATL) vs LV – Under 12.7
Gurley has already been ruled out for Week 12. It’ll be the Brian Hill show for the Falcons backfield on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC) @ TB – Over 15.4
The overall WR2 across the fantasy landscape has been the most consistent producer at the position on the year. Having failed to surpass 13 fantasy points in just a single week throughout the season, Hill is as reliable as they come. Hill has scored at least one touchdown in nine of 10 games to start the year, on top of getting double-digit targets in three out of the past four games. In a showdown against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, Cheetah and his consistent self will show out for the 4:25 pm EST CBS slot. It’s been a few weeks since we last saw Hill throw up the deuces, right? That changes on Sunday.

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) @ GB – Under 12.1
Doesn’t matter if it’s Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky back there: it’s impossible to trust this Bears passing attack right now. Having scored only a single touchdown since Week 5, Robinson hasn’t been the beneficiary of a massive target share either. Robinson hasn’t received double-digit targets since Week 5. With Green Bay corner Jaire Alexander likely drawing the Robinson assignment, my money is on the Packers defense being able to keep Robinson under wraps for the Sunday Night Football audience.

DeVante Parker (WR – MIA) @ NYJ – Over 11.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick and all of the magic that accompanies him is back for Miami and Chan Gailey’s offense. Drawing a matchup against the franchise that used to employ both of them during their previous stint together, I’ve got the Dolphins offense opening it up early and often against the lifeless New York Jets. Even though Parker had a relatively quiet Week 6 with Fitzpatrick at quarterback in a 24-0 victory over the Jets, I’ve got Parker coming down with a touchdown grab, operating as Fitzpatrick’s favorite receiver

Curtis Samuel (WR – CAR) @ MIN – Over 10.7
It’s such a bummer that we’ve only been able to see Christian McCaffrey play in Matt Rhule’s and Joe Brady’s Carolina offense on only three occasions so far in 2020. McCaffrey’s misfortune has resulted in Curtis Samuel’s gain, as the former Ohio State wide receiver has been the primary beneficiary, especially of late. Samuel has scored five touchdowns over the past five weeks and is going up against a Vikings defense that is giving up an average of 33 points per game inside U.S. Bank Stadium. In a game that has the makings of a shootout, I’ve got Samuel sustaining his hot streak against a vulnerable Mike Zimmer defense.

Darren Waller (TE – LV) @ ATL – Over 13.0
The overall TE2 behind Travis Kelce had yet another masterful performance when the two squared off against one another in their Week 11 Sunday Night Football contest. Atlanta’s nonexistent pass defense, ranking 31st in yards allowed and 29th in touchdowns through the air, will certainly have their hands full with Waller’s otherworldly athleticism. I’m calling for Waller to have his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 2 against New Orleans, with Waller coming down with a touchdown to boot.

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Rob Searles is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Rob, check out his archive and follow him @RobBob17.

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