Feast or Famine: Week 11 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Feast or Famine! Each week, I’ll break down the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
Jameis Winston (NO)
Highest rank: QB4. Lowest Rank: QB27.
Drew Brees is out for a minimum of two weeks, and as Winston steps up as his replacement, he could hardly ask for a better matchup. The Falcons allow the most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and they’re also the second-ranked pass-funnel defense. A cushioned first start for the turnover-prone quarterback should help ease the transition. Don’t forget the crazy amount of weapons the Saints have — and their top-five offensive line. It’s all the better that the Falcons can turn this into a shootout as well.
Phillip Rivers (IND)
Highest rank: QB14. Lowest Rank: QB25.
Rivers had a great matchup last week, yet he could only muster up just 16 fantasy points. He has now thrown for more than one touchdown in only two of his games this season. Don’t expect any improvement from him this week, as the Packers allow the fourth-fewest points to the position and are weak against running backs — which happens to be the Colts’ main strength. Expect a heavier dose of Taylor, Hines, and Wilkins as they try to control the clock and take what the defense gives them.
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
Highest rank: RB18. Lowest Rank: RB45.
Taylor has been horrendous of late — three straight weeks of under eight points is far from ideal. However, when we look closer, we see that Jordan Wilkins has seen his snap count fall off a cliff for three straight weeks as well — it’s gone from 51% to 34% to 20%. Hines has seen his role grow again for the same three weeks, and he’s the main competition for Taylor. The Packers are allowing the third-most points to running backs while tough against the passing game. As such, I believe there is enough wealth to go around for the two backs, and this could be a small get right game for Taylor. He’s definitely a risky play, but I like the upside.
Miles Sanders (PHI)
Highest rank: RB2. Lowest Rank: RB11.
The last time I ranked a top-tier running back as a famine, it was Ezekiel Elliott, and he disappointed as expected. While I’m not nearly as confident that Sanders will disappoint, the situation feels similar. Cleveland is a slow-paced, pass-funnel style defense that invites itself to attacks through the air, not on the ground. This shows in their stat lines, as they rank sixth-worst against wide receivers compared to 23rd against running backs. The Eagles offense has slowly become healthier with the returns of Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert — and the rise of Travis Fulgham. They are also a 3.5-point underdog in a game that’s projected to be low-scoring, with a total of 47. Sanders sees workhorse level usage, so you’ll need an adequate replacement even to consider benching your stud.
Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Highest rank: WR8. Lowest Rank: WR36.
The Cowboys secondary has allowed at least 10 fantasy points to two opposing wide receivers in six of their nine games this year. The Vikings have target hogs in both Jefferson and Thielen, so this should be game number seven for that weak Cowboys defense. Jefferson just got done torching one of the best defenses in the league in the Bears for an 8-135-0 line. Keep in mind that Dalvin Cook is my RB1 overall this week, so I’m expecting there to be enough volume to go around to keep the passing game involved.
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Highest rank: WR9. Lowest Rank: WR35.
Kupp has now scored over 10 points just once in his last five games. In what was primed to be a smash spot for the team’s passing game last week, he ran his fewest offensive snap share of the season at 53%. I don’t know why this is the case, but McVay is insistent on getting the three-headed backfield to be their offensive feature. There is just too much risk considering his usage this past month to feel comfortable, and the red flags of last week did nothing to calm our fears.
Logan Thomas (WAS)
Highest rank: TE8. Lowest Rank: TE20.
Thomas was the only tight end to see over 95% of snaps in an offense last week. He’ll look to build on that momentum with quarterback Alex Smith as they face the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most points to tight ends this year, and Thomas looks to play nearly every down. At the very least, that should give him a safe floor with the potential for more.
Thanks for reading, and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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