Do you remember your high school math classes? My guess is you’ve all but blocked out those memories – the infinite homework assignments, the dusty chalkboards, those unwarrantedly expensive scientific calculators. Math classes were often my kryptonite when I was younger. Like many students, I tended to be “good” at the subjects that interested me, and “bad” at the ones that didn’t. And math exams were a particular enemy because they controlled for the weaknesses that I was able to exploit in other classes. After all, multiple choice tests put the right answer in front of you. Sure, you have to pick it out of a lineup, but you can often use basic inference and deductive reasoning skills to narrow your choices and improve your odds of getting it right. And essay exams leave room for those that write well – or write persuasively – to pick up a few extra points regardless of demonstrated applications of theory or subject matter.

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But math classes? Those professors knew how to close the trap doors. Because it wasn’t enough for you to get the answer right on a math test. No – you needed to show your work. Which meant that it wasn’t enough for you to be right: you had to be right for the right reasons.

I’m reminded of math classes when I watch analysts make predictions, regardless of whether those predictions are made within the sports, political, or business arenas. I’m reminded of math classes when I listen to fantasy analysts make predictions for the NFL season – or even the week ahead. And I often wonder: should those that “get it right” receive full credit, regardless of why their prediction actually proved true? 

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Take the case of Kenyan Drake. Going into the 2019 season, Drake carried an overall ADP of 72 (~RB28). His draft position reflected the risk in rostering him: namely, the unknown extent of his role, and his environment (on what was projected to be an underwhelming Miami Dolphins’ offense). If I asked you to explain why you drafted Kenyan Drake last season, what do you think you would have said in the moment?

Perhaps you would have pointed to some calculated assumptions in Miami’s offensive production? Or projected he’d have a high floor as a pass catcher on a team that didn’t enter 2019 with many receiving threats? Regardless of the specifics, it’s safe to assume you didn’t draft Drake because you thought he might be traded to the Arizona Cardinals before the trade deadline, which would ultimately lead him to gel perfectly in Kliff Kingsbury’s system and finish the year as the RB6 over the last six games. 

But, ultimately, drafting Kenyan Drake in 2019 netted you an unforeseen change of scenery – and all of that resulting production. And provided you started him down the stretch, you got every single point awarded to your fantasy team, regardless of whether your reasoning for drafting him in the first place proved accurate. 

Fast-forward to last week: with Mark Ingram dealing with a high ankle sprain, J.K. Dobbins crept into the top-30 of many analysts’ projected running back rankings. But the reasoning the fantasy community offered for his improved ranking was largely attributed to his expanded opportunity as a pass catcher. In fact, many experts suggested not to start him with high hopes of rushing efficiency, as Pittsburgh entered the game with among the best run defenses in the league. 

But what happened? Dobbins had his first one hundred yard rushing day of his young career, touting a healthy 7.5 yards-per-carry to boot. And his receiving stats? Two targets. One catch. Eight yards. 

Those that ranked him in the top-30 for the week were validated (he finished as RB17). But how “right” were they? 

Now, I don’t want you to think I’m leading you to some proposal of a radical new framework of fantasy football scoring, where every manager must thoroughly explain why they chose to draft or start a player, and will only receive “full credit” if those underlying assumptions prove true. Nobody wants that. Nobody has time for that. 

My point is less about examining the accuracy of your predictions for public consumption – my point is more that you should be examining the accuracy of your predictions to improve your own chances of winning. 

Why?

First, there’s evidence that suggests we tend to overestimate our abilities in a range of real-life domains. Next, it’s been shown that when we experience minor (or outright lucky) successes in many settings, it will unsubstantially ignite rampant overconfidence in our skillsets in the immediate future. Think of it this way: we’ve all taken a flier and started some under-utilized wide receiver on a given week, believing that he was going to have a ton of targets due to an injury to another player, or the defense he was going up against. But the game starts, and that prediction . . . falls flat.

We watch in horror as that receiver sees exactly one target over the first three-and-a-half-quarters. But then, in garbage time, he miraculously finds the end zone and saves his fantasy day. As relief washes over us, we subconsciously feel validated that our “hunch” paid off. But, in fact, we weren’t actually right – not for the reasons we speculated, anyway. And that inflated confidence we receive from paying off that gamble might lead us to make more suboptimal decisions the following week – it may convince us we have “an intuition” when we so totally do not. 

When you play fantasy football, you’re in the business of making predictions. So when it comes to predictions, remember two things. 

First, that your willingness to believe a prediction is directly correlated with how much you want it to come true. 

And second, that all predictions are based on probabilities. Getting it “wrong” doesn’t automatically mean you were shortsighted anymore than getting it “right” means you were omniscient. 

The real lesson comes in keeping track of why you made the predictions you did. The real lesson comes from humbling yourself by acknowledging the variables you didn’t foresee when you made your assumptions, regardless of whether your prediction ultimately proved fruitful. 

Because, like in math class, the real lesson comes from showing your work. 

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Whether you’re new to fantasy football or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Football 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with How to Manage Early-Season Injury Problems or head to more advanced strategy – like How to Effectively Assess the Quality of Your Team – to learn more.

David Giardino is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from David, check out his archive and follow him @davidgiardino.