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The Primer: Week 12 Edition (2020 Fantasy Football)

by Mike Tagliere | @MikeTagliereNFL | Featured Writer
Nov 25, 2020
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It’s Thanksgiving week. It’s a busy one for me, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. I’m sitting here typing this with plenty to be grateful for. I have a wonderful family, great friends, a warm place to live, and my health. I also have you. If I haven’t told you lately, I’m thankful for each of you who come and read this article every week.

Fantasy football can be random at times, but it can also be beautiful during others. Each week, I go through as many numbers and trends I can get my hands onto in order to make sense of each individual player’s matchup. It may not always be right. Heck, if it were, I’d be writing this article from a private island. The beauty is the process, and I love being the person you turn to for that process.

There may be times you’re frustrated with me. There may be times you’re happy with a call I made. That’s going to happen because this is a relationship and one that I’m extremely thankful for. This article right here… it’s for you.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. May all of you enjoy some time with family this week.

Matchup Links:
BAL at PIT | MIA at NYJ | ARI at NE | CAR at MIN | CLE at JAC | TEN at IND | NYG at CIN | LAC at BUF | LV at ATL | SF at LAR | NO at DEN | KC at TB | CHI at GB | SEA at PHI

So, what does The Primer offer? Anything you could ever want. Seriously, it’ll have wide receiver/cornerback matchups, recent history against each team, comparable player performances, unique stats, and most importantly, how they should be played that particular week. The idea here is to give you as much information and confidence as possible when you hit that ‘Submit Lineup’ button each week.

On top of all that, I’ll come back by Saturday morning to update once practice participation reports are posted. Still want more? We’ll be doing a livestream on our YouTube channel every Sunday morning from 11-12 EST, breaking down the inactives and letting you know which players benefit the most from them.

Now, which players should be in your lineup this week?

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Ravens vs. Steelers Betting Matchup

*Editor’s Note: This game has been moved to Tuesday night due to the COVID-19 outbreak with the Ravens. 

QBs
Lamar Jackson:
His 75 percent completion-rate over the previous two weeks didn’t carry over to Week 11 where he completed just 17-of-29 passes against a Titans defense that had been abused by quarterbacks as of late. After throwing for three-plus touchdowns in nine of his previous 16 games, Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in any of his last nine games. Fortunately, he’s rushed for at least 45 yards in 9-of-10 games, bringing a floor that allows him to stay in lineups. The last time he played against the Steelers (Week 8), he totaled 208 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions through the air, while rushing a season-high 16 times for 65 yards. The Steelers have allowed just 1.22 PPR points per offensive snap to their opponents, which is the second-lowest number in the league to only the Bears. Since Week 3 of last year, the Steelers defense has allowed precisely one quarterback to finish as a top-12 quarterback, and it was the QB9 performance back in Week 11 of last year. We’re talking about a 24-game sample. They’ve allowed a league-low 54.9 percent completion-rate, 6.67 yards per attempt (3rd-lowest), 4.36 percent touchdown-rate (13th-lowest), and generate a sack on 9.92 percent of dropbacks (highest mark in NFL). The Steelers are also one of just four teams who’ve still yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a quarterback. Heck, all-in-all, the Steelers have allowed their opponents a league-low 17.4 points per game. We know the Ravens like to run the ball, as they call a pass play just 48.1 percent of the time, but they’ll have to adjust against the Steelers, as opponents have thrown the ball 61.7 percent of the time against them. The bottom line here is that if Jackson can’t get it done through the air, he’s not likely to offer QB1 value. He’s just a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for this game considering his lack of stability through the air. (**UPDATE**: Jackson has tested positive for COVID-19, throwing his status for this game into serious jeopardy.)

Ben Roethlisberger: The Steelers have essentially said, “We’re going to throw the ball and there’s nothing you can do to stop it.” Roethlisberger has thrown a remarkable 134 times over the last three weeks, which amounts to 44.7 per game. They’ve outscored their opponents 87-32 in that time, so why change? There’s been just one game all season where he’s thrown the ball fewer than 32 times, which is what’s needed when playing a non-mobile quarterback. Unfortunately, his matchup this week isn’t nearly as easy as the last three weeks (Cowboys, Bengals, Jaguars). The Ravens have allowed just 19.5 points per game to their opponents, which is the third-lowest number in the NFL. They’ve allowed a passing touchdown on just 3.64 percent of pass attempts, which ranks as the fourth-lowest number in football. It’s not just touchdowns, either. They’ve allowed just 6.59 yards per attempt, which is the second-lowest mark. In their first meeting, Roethlisberger threw for just 182 yards and two touchdowns on 32 pass attempts. The 5.7 yards per attempt he averaged was the second-lowest mark he’s had this year. Outside of one game where the Ravens allowed four touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes, they’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns in their other nine games combined. The positive news for Roethlisberger is that defensive tackle and edge rusher Pernell McPhee have both been ruled out due to COVID, while DT Calais Campbell, CB Jimmy Smith, and DE Derek Wolfe are looking highly questionable. As of now, Roethlisberger should be considered a mid-to-high-end QB2 who might benefit from injuries, though the total on this game is one of the lowest this week.

RBs
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill:
It happened. The Ravens have finally moved to JK Dobbins as their primary ball carrier. He played a season-high 64 percent of the snaps and touched the ball a career-high 17 times against the Titans. Prior to that game, Dobbins hadn’t touched the ball more than seven times with all three running backs in the lineup (for the full game). Unfortunately, that doesn’t matter, as he was hit with COVID and is likely out for this week, as is Mark Ingram. That leaves us Edwards and Hill. The matchup… isn’t great. Not only are the Steelers limiting opposing skill-position players to a league-low 62.1 PPR points per game but running backs have accounted for just 28.0 percent of that production, the fifth-lowest percentage in the league. The 173.9 PPR points they’ve allowed to running backs is just 0.1 more points than the Saints have allowed, making them the second-toughest matchup in the league. The lack of production through the air is what drags that number down, as they have allowed 4.14 yards per carry, which isn’t deadly. It’s also why we watched Dobbins have some success against them back in Week 8 when he totaled a career-high 113 yards on 15 carries. The Ravens hardly throw to their running backs, which fits what’s happened against the Steelers, as they’ve only seen a running back target on 14.8 percent of pass attempts this year (second-lowest number in NFL). We’re expecting a big touch-share for Edwards this week and we’re going to need it with running backs averaging just 23.3 touches per game against the Steelers, which is the lowest mark in the league. Ingram was out the last time these two teams played, and Edwards totaled 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries despite Dobbins getting some work. Knowing Edwards is the workhorse here, he should be in the mid-to-low-end RB2 range in what is a tough matchup, but one that he’s ready for. Hill is likely going to get 5-8 touches in this tough matchup, so he’s not a recommended play.

James Conner:
*Editor’s Note: Conner’s status is in question after being placed o the COVID list on Saturday

After totaling at least 18 touches in each of his first six full games he played this year, Conner has been an afterthought in the Steelers offense. He’s received just 42 touches over the last three games despite outscoring their opponents 87-32 in those games. Even worse, he’s scored just one touchdown over the last five weeks while Benny Snell has vultured two touchdowns in that time. The last time these two teams played, Conner did total 18 touches, though they amounted to just 60 total yards without a touchdown. The Ravens have allowed a rushing touchdown once every 51.3 carries, which is the second-largest number in the league, though the status of their interior linemen is important. We already know that Brandon Williams has been ruled out with COVID, while Calais Campbell hasn’t practiced. It seems they’ll be without both players this week, which is certainly a big plus for Conner. I mentioned this last week with Henry, but the Ravens allowed just 4.12 yards per carry with Williams on the field last year but allowed a massive 5.31 yards per carry without him. While the Ravens sold out to stop Derrick Henry last week, they can’t do that with the receivers that the Steelers have. There have been three running backs who’ve totaled 115-plus yards on the ground against the Ravens this year, and Conner should have relatively fresh legs with his limited work the last three weeks. Conner makes for a solid RB2 play who’ll likely be under-owned in DFS tournaments with his recent performances.

WRs
Marquise Brown:
We know fantasy managers have been fed up with Brown’s struggles, and it appears that maybe the Ravens are, too. He saw a season-low three targets in Week 11 that netted zero catches for zero yards. Only one of those targets was catchable, but he led it go right through his hands. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 5 to find the last time Brown finished with double-digit PPR points. He’s the No. 50 wide receiver in PPR formats this year, right behind Russell Gage and Greg Ward. Not great, Bob. Of the fantasy production allowed to skill-position players against the Steelers, wide receivers account for 59.1 percent of it, which ranks as the second-highest percentage in the league, only to the Seahawks. The matchup isn’t as bad as some make it out to be for wide receivers against the Steelers, as they are essentially right around the league average. The benefit to Brown is that they’ve allowed 14.08 yards per reception to receivers, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Brown tweeted after last week’s game, “What’s the point of having souljas when you never use them (Never!!).” He deleted it, but John Harbaugh addressed the concerns and said, “We want him to be a huge part of our offense. We’ve got to find ways to get that done.” He’s right, they do need him to stretch the field and at least be considered a threat. He’s in the boom-or-bust WR4 conversation this week, and this could be the wake-up they needed to get the ball into his hands.

Willie Snead: Over the last four games the Ravens have played, Snead is the No. 1 receiver on this team. He has totaled 25 targets, 17 receptions, 230 yards, and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown has 17 targets, six receptions, 55 yards, and one touchdown. Crazy, right? It’s not like you really want to play Snead, as he’s finished with more than 64 yards just once all season, but it’s worth noting. The Steelers have Cameron Sutton covering the slot as of late, and he’s done a better job than Mike Hilton was doing. Sutton has allowed just 1.02 yards per covered snap while Hilton allowed 2.06 yards per snap in coverage. Over the last few weeks, Sutton has held Keelan Cole to 2/26/0 and Tyler Boyd to 6/41/0. So, they seemed to have worked things out since Snead tagged them for 5/106/0 back in Week 8. You shouldn’t feel the need to play him as anything more than a WR5 with a limited ceiling.

Chase Claypool: The only wide receivers who’ve seen 40-plus targets and averaged more fantasy points per target than Claypool are Justin Jefferson, D.K. Metcalf, Tyreek Hill, and Adam Thielen. He’s seen eight-plus targets in each of his last four games and has finished with at least 14.9 PPR points in each of them. Will Jimmy Smith be back for the Ravens? His loss is a major one, as he’s allowed just 0.90 PPR points per target thrown his way, which is easily the lowest mark in the NFL. It’s always interesting to see a team that targets their receivers as much as the Steelers do, go up against a team like the Ravens, who’ve faced a wide receiver target on just 53.8 percent of attempts (third-lowest percentage in NFL). The Ravens have allowed just five wide receiver touchdowns all season. They’ve also allowed a minuscule 11.92 yards per reception to them, so this matchup actually benefits Johnson’s role more than it does Claypool’s. If he doesn’t score in this game, it could be a disappointing one, and the Ravens have allowed a touchdown just once every 38.4 targets to wide receivers, which makes them the toughest team in the NFL to score against. You’re still starting him, as it does seem less than likely that Jimmy Smith plays but understand it’s a tough matchup. He should be considered a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Diontae Johnson: There have been six games where Johnson has played all four quarters. His target totals in those games are 10, 13, 15, 10, 11, and 16. That’s a bit ridiculous, but his fantasy managers won’t be complaining. Over the last two weeks, he’s caught 18 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown. Will his ridiculous target share continue against the Ravens, who’ve seen just a 53.8 percent target share to wide receivers (third-lowest mark in NFL)? The average wide receiver reception against them goes for just 11.92 yards, which would benefit Johnson, whose average depth of target is just 8.8 yards. The last time they played, Johnson needed to leave the game for a bit (getting checked out for injury), and it led to him seeing just three targets. He played 41-of-53 snaps, so it wasn’t a massive absence, which goes to show just how tough the matchup with the Steelers is. He plays most of his snaps at LWR, which is where Jimmy Smith is usually at, but he’s very questionable for this game with an ankle injury. If he were to miss this game, that would move Marlon Humphrey out to the perimeter, and slide Tramon Williams into the slot. All-in-all, it would be a slight upgrade for Johnson, as Humphrey is dominant in the slot, but has been a bit more human on the perimeter, allowing 9-of-15 passing for 130 yards there. Johnson should offer a decent floor as a low-end WR2, but don’t expect a massive performance.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: He needed to leave the game multiple times against the Jaguars, so we could see a less-than-100-percent Smith-Schuster in the lineup this week. I’ll be paying attention to the injury report now that this game is taking place on Sunday. It’s a shame about his injury, too, because he’d been playing extremely well over the previous four weeks. Before the disappointing game last week, he’d posted at least six receptions and 67 yards in each of the previous four games while seeing at least seven targets in every game. The last time they played the Ravens, he saw eight targets and turned in a performance of seven catches for 67 scoreless yards. Not bad, not great. There’s a silver lining to this week, though. If Jimmy Smith can’t play, that would move Marlon Humphrey out to the perimeter and have Tramon Williams in the slot. Humphrey has allowed just 32-of-45 passing for 240 scoreless yards in the slot, while Williams is almost 38 years old and has played just 15 snaps all season. If Smith-Schuster isn’t listed on the final injury report and Smith is out, he might be the best play among Steelers receivers, though that’s multiple “ifs.” I’ll update the bottom of these notes later in the week based on reports.

TEs
Mark Andrews:
After a lull in production from Week 6 though Week 9, Andrews has bounced back in a big way over the last two weeks. He racked up 7/61/0 against the Patriots, who had been shutting down tight end production all season, and then he built on that while taking advantage of a plus-matchup against the Titans, churning out five receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown. Teams have continually tried to target their tight ends against the Steelers, though it hasn’t worked. Despite seeing the 10th-most targets (74), they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest receptions (36), third-fewest yards (364), and the fewest touchdowns (1) to tight ends. That all amounts to just 4.92 yards and 1.06 PPR points per target to the position, which are both the best in football. We already know Andrews isn’t a high-catch percentage tight end, so when you add that in with the fact that the Steelers have allowed a ridiculously-low 48.6 percent completion-rate (no other team under 58.2 percent), you have an issue. You also know why Andrews finished with just three catches for 32 yards on six targets the last time these two teams met. You have to keep plugging him in as a TE1 in season-long leagues, but this isn’t a week to attack him in DFS.

Eric Ebron: We talk about it every week, but the Steelers have too many pass-catchers for all of them to remain consistent. However, with Roethlisberger throwing the ball 40-times seemingly every game, there should be plenty of opportunity for Ebron. He’s now totaled at least five targets in eight of the last nine games. He’s not someone who’ll get you tons of yardage, as he’s yet to finish with more than 52 yards, but he is averaging 3.8 receptions per game since the start of Week 2, which is a floor that’s hard to find at the tight end position. The matchup against the Ravens has been decent for tight ends, as we’ve watched six different tight ends finish with double-digit PPR days against them, including Ebron who caught four balls for 48 yards and a touchdown in their Week 8 meeting when he finished as the TE3 on the week. While the Ravens have been a below average matchup for running backs and wide receivers, they rank as the 18th-best matchup for tight ends based on adjusted opponent rank. I suppose that’s slightly below average, but it’s nothing to downgrade Ebron over. Zach Ertz was the only tight end who’s seen five-plus targets and failed to finish with at least 12.0 PPR points against them. That’s a target number Ebron has hit that target mark in 8-of-10 games, making him a solid mid-to-low-end TE1 this week.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Spread: Dolphins -7
Total: 44
Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Matchup

QBs
Tua Tagovailoa:
It was confirmed that he was benched last week, as Brian Flores felt like Ryan Fitzpatrick gave the team the best chance to win. I hope you weren’t streaming him, as I’d mentioned last week he wasn’t a very good play regardless. He’s still yet to throw more than 28 pass attempts in a game, hasn’t thrown for 250 yards, and hasn’t thrown more than two touchdowns. “Well duh, Mike. He hasn’t thrown the ball enough.” That’s my point. Will they try to get him going this week? The Jets and the Jaguars are the only two teams in the league who are well below average against every fantasy position. There are just four teams in the league who’ve allowed more than 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season, and the Jets are one of them. The league-high 72.8 percent completion-rate they’ve allowed certainly helps Tagovailoa’s case, as no other team has allowed higher than 70.1 percent. Despite teams continually blowing the Jets out, they’ve thrown the ball 56.7 percent of the time, which ranks as the 12th lowest percentage in the league, which is again, not bad considering. When you add in the 67.6 plays per game their opponents are allowing, you get 36.8 pass attempts per game, which is enough for them to allow 295.0 passing yards per game. The downside is that Tagovailoa has limited pass-catchers in the offense, but it’s a good enough matchup to bring him back into the QB2 conversation, just don’t expect miracles with his limited volume.

Sam Darnold or Joe Flacco: With the way Flacco has played over the last two weeks, the Jets might decide to give Darnold some additional time off. He’s thrown for 467 yards and five touchdowns over the last two games, which have produced two of the top-three quarterback performances for the Jets this year. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean a whole lot this week. The Dolphins defense hasn’t been a joke this season, as they’ve allowed a touchdown pass on just 3.63 percent of pass attempts, which ranks as the third-lowest in the NFL, behind only the Rams and Bears. There have been five 20-point performances against them this year, but oddly enough, all those performances were against mobile quarterbacks, and three of them rushed for touchdowns. If you remove rushing production, the Dolphins have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per actual pass attempt, which is much worse than the last two matchups for Flacco (Patriots allow the fifth-most, Chargers allow the 11th-most). You shouldn’t be streaming Flacco in this matchup. *Update* Darnold is looking likely to be the starter. 

RBs
Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed:
It seems that Gaskin returned to practice early this week, which creates some question marks if he were to return. Do they give him his old role back, or do they ease him back into the offense considering Ahmed has played well? The Jets have allowed a massive 30.2 points per game to their opponents this year, so we must find out where those points are going. Running backs have averaged just 4.17 yards per carry against the Jets, which is below the league average, though it helps to feel confident starting a running back against them when you know the touches will be there. They’ve faced a massive 29.7 running back touches per game this year, which comes from constantly being in negative gamescripts. From an efficiency standpoint, the Jets have allowed the 15th-fewest fantasy points per weighted opportunity. Ahmed has totaled 33 of the 39 available carries for Dolphins running backs the last two weeks, while seeing seven of the nine available targets. That’s serious workhorse material. It’s eerily similar to Kalen Ballage against them last week, as we had a workhorse-type running back filling in for the starter against the Jets, though he somewhat failed to live up to expectations. Ahmed is locked into enough touches with Gaskin out of the lineup to start as a low-end RB2. If Gaskin returns, then we are likely stuck choosing between these two in what’s likely a timeshare where they’d both be RB3-type options with risk attached.
*Editor’s Note: Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin were ruled out for week 12.

Frank Gore: Now that Lamical Perine has been placed on injured reserve, this backfield is Gore’s for what might be his last hurrah, as there’s nowhere else for Adam Gase to go. The Jets running backs have combined for just 24.8 touches per game this year, but now that Gore should receieve the majority of them, he’s actually playable. He scored his first touchdown in over 230 carries last week, though you shouldn’t be relying on that trend to continue. Not only have the Jets running backs only scored four touchdowns the entire season, the Dolphins are one of just six teams who’ve allowed less than 21.0 points per game to their opponents (20.2), so scoring opportunities haven’t been easy to come by. Now, with that being said, they have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity this year, allowing 4.61 yards per carry and 6.55 yards per target, which are both well above the league average. They’ve allowed just 13 passing touchdowns through 10 games, but have allowed eight rushing touchdowns to running backs, so it’s clear they’re more of a reverse funnel defense. The last time these two teams met, Gore finished with 70 total yards on 15 touches, which was enough for the RB22 performance. Oddly enough, he should be locked into more touches this week, which puts him right smack in the middle of the RB3 range, just don’t play him looking for upside.

WRs
DeVante Parker:
Parker hasn’t been getting the elite targets he was last year, as his 6.5 targets per game pales in comparison to the 8.0 targets per game he saw last year. If the Dolphins are quick to pull Tagovailoa if he struggles, that’s not a bad thing for Parker, who benefits from playing with Fitzpatrick. This is a matchup Parker should crush, as the Jets have allowed 202.1 yards per game to wide receivers this year, which makes them one of just three teams who’ve allowed more than 189.6 yards per game. Wide receivers have also caught a league-high 72.6 percent of their targets against the Jets, which makes you feel better about the lack of volume Parker’s had with Tagovailoa. The downside is that the Jets held him to just 3/35/0 on eight targets earlier in the year, but their secondary has continually trended down as the season’s gone on and has recently changed direction. They’re now starting rookies Bryce Hall and Lamar Jackson on the perimeter with 2017 undrafted free agent Arthur Maulet in the slot. That didn’t go well against the Chargers, as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combined for 20 receptions, 217 yards, and two touchdowns. Parker should be in lineups as a low-end WR2 this week.

Jakeem Grant: He’s seen at least five targets in each of the last three games, and knowing Preston Williams is likely to remain out, his share in the offense should remain. He’s still yet to top four receptions or 48 yards, so you don’t want to go in with sky-high expectations, but the Jets have allowed 19 different wide receivers to finish as the WR47 or better, which is essentially WR4 territory. There have been just two wide receivers who’ve seen five-plus targets against them and didn’t finish as top-48 options, so Grant may not be the worst last-minute replacement.

Jamison Crowder: There’s clearly a disconnect between Flacco and Crowder, so if you’re relying on Crowder, you’re rooting for Darnold to get back under center. Over the last three games with Flacco, Crowder has seen 18 targets and turned them into nine receptions, 90 yards, and one touchdown. Meanwhile, the combination of Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims have been just fine. In each of the three games with Darnold, Crowder finished with at least seven catches and 104 yards. Despite the Dolphins having one of the better cornerback duos in the league, their opponents have chosen to target wide receivers 62.8 percent of the time, which is the third-highest mark in the league. That’s led to 22.5 targets per game to wide receivers, which should be more than enough for Crowder to get back onto the fantasy radar. The good news is that Nik Needham is the weakest link in the slot, allowing 27-of-41 passing for 333 yards in his coverage, though he’s yet to allow a touchdown. The last time these two teams played, Crowder finished with seven catches for 48 yards, which is fine for PPR leagues, but it took him 13 targets to get there. Again, that game was with Flacco, who he clearly hasn’t connected with. If Flacco starts, Crowder is just a low-upside WR4. If Darnold starts, Crowder moves up into the low-end WR3 consideration. *Update* It seems Darnold is going to play, giving Crowder a bit more appeal. 

Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims: These two are highly unpredictable from week-to-week, and if Perriman hadn’t caught that 49-yard touchdown late in the game, he would’ve finished with just one catch for five yards. In the end, he only got four targets, which is not enough to start anyone with confidence, especially when he has Flacco or Darnold as his quarterback. Mims has seen a much more consistent target share (at least seven targets in 3-of-4 games), and though he hasn’t topped 71 yards, he also hasn’t fallen below 42 yards. Don’t forget he’s a rookie who didn’t play a single snap until Week 7, so he should only get better. The issue for both of these receivers this week is the Dolphins cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. They’re the cornerbacks these guys will see all game, and they’ve combined to allow just 54-of-96 passing for 783 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions in their coverage. They’re not unbeatable, as there have been eight wide receivers who’ve totaled 82-plus yards against them, but it’s hardly a matchup to target. Mims would be my preferred option of the two due to his seemingly more consistent target share but they’re both stuck in WR5 territory.

TEs
Mike Gesicki:
After finishing as a top-15 tight end in three of his first five games this year, Gesicki has failed to finish better than TE17 over his last five games. I do feel like he’s inching up the radar a bit, though, as he’s now totaled at least four targets and 40-plus yards in each of the last three games. You’d expect his targets to increase with Preston Williams out of the lineup and really no No. 2 wide receiver available to take those targets. If you just looked at his target share over the last three games, you’d see he’s sitting at 15.4 percent, which isn’t horrible. Knowing the Jets face an average of 36.8 pass attempts per game, we could see a six-target day for Gesicki. Against the Jets, that could be massive, as they’ve allowed 2.22 PPR points per target to tight ends, which is the third-highest mark in the league. It’s a combination of both yardage (8.21 yards per target ranks as the 8th-most) and touchdowns (have allowed a touchdown every 9.0 targets, which is the fourth-most often). Through 10 games, there have been seven tight ends who’ve finished as the TE14 or better against them, including five top-eight performances. Gesicki is in the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 conversation this week.

Chris Herndon: He caught his first touchdown since Week 16 of 2018 last week. Unfortunately, he’s still not playable as someone who’s seen three or less targets in each of his last seven games. Not just that, but the Dolphins are ridiculously good against tight ends and have allowed just one tight end to reach double-digit PPR points against them all season.

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