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Top 10 NFL Player Prop Bets On FanDuel (Week 12)

by Mike Spector | Featured Writer
Nov 28, 2020

41.5 receiving yards is an awfully conservative projection for Mike Williams.

We compiled several projection sources to come up with consensus projections. We then compared these projections to the prop bet odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to give you the best prop bet picks. Here are our top 10 picks for Week 12.

View the best NFL prop bets for Week 10 with our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

RK PLAYER OPP STAT O/U LINE PROJ. DIFF PICK
1 D.J. Moore (CAR – WR) @ MIN Receivng Yards

 59.5

79.6 20.1

o59.5

2 Mike Williams (LAC – WR) @ BUF Receiving Yards

41.5

60.1 18.6

o41.5

3 DeAndre Hopkins (ARI – WR) @ NE Receiving Yards

 71.5

88.7 17.2

o71.5

4 Damien Harris (NE – RB) vs. ARI Rushing Yards

 50.5

64.7 14.2

o50.5

5 Kirk Cousins (MIN – QB) vs. CAR Passing Yards

 229.5

243.4 13.9

o229.5

6 Mike Evans (TB – WR) vs. KC Receivng Yards

 50.5

64.1 13.6

o50.5

7 Tom Brady (TB – QB) vs. KC Passing Yards

 287.5

273.9 -13.6

u287.5

8 Jakobi Meyers (NE – WR) vs. ARI Receiving Yards

 54.5

67.5 13.0

o54.5

9 Cooper Kupp (LAR – WR) vs. SF Receiving Yards

 60.5

73.3 12.8

o60.5

10 Kyler Murray (ARI – QB) @ NE  Passing Yards

 245.5

258.2 12.7

o245.5

D.J. Moore (CAR – WR): OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards
D.J. Moore has at least 55 yards receiving in five of his last six games, including four games of 93+ yards in that span. Though he had instant chemistry with the team’s backup quarterback P.J. Walker, Moore will have a healthy Teddy Bridgewater throwing him passes. He gets set to face the Vikings’ 25th-ranked pass defense that allows 260.7 YPG. Moore has 13 receptions of 20+ yards and four catches of 40+ yards, so he will not need many targets to surpass this total.

Mike Williams (LAC – WR): OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Williams has at least 72 receiving yards in three of his last four games and has been one of quarterback Justin Herbert’s favorite targets since he took over the starting job. He has had at least seven targets in four of his last six games and might be peppered with even more passes in this one if Buffalo’s shutdown cornerback Tre’Davious White shadows Keenan Allen all game. 41.5 receiving yards is an awfully conservative projection for Williams in a game that has a projected 52.5 points.

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI – WR): OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards
DeAndre Hopkins has had a rollercoaster the last six weeks from a yardage perspective. He has surpassed 100 receiving yards three times in that span while being held to 73 yards or less the other three times. He is facing a New England defense that is not the vintage defense we are accustomed to under Bill Belichick. If Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is still hampered by a knee injury that cost him three games, Hopkins’ outlook receives a massive boost.

Damien Harris (NE – RB): OVER 50.5 Rushing Yards
Damien Harris has exceeded this projected total in four of the last five games. Now he has less competition in the backfield as teammate Rex Burkhead is out for the season. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to utilize a more traditional backfield with Harris as his bell-cow while James White serves as the passing down back. The Patriots will likely use a conservative ball-control game plan so as to keep Arizona’s explosive offense off the field, which means Harris may see 20+ touches.

Kirk Cousins (MIN – QB): OVER 229.5 Passing Yards
After not attempting 30 or more passes in five of the first seven games, Kirk Cousins has that many attempts in back to back weeks. His low projection is a result of second-leading receiver Adam Thielen missing Sunday’s game after testing positive for the coronavirus. However, Thielen’s absence should lead to more stacked boxes to limit Dalvin Cook, which in turn should help Cousins’ output. Cousins has a passer rating of 145.4 when not under pressure since Week 8, which is best among 34 qualified quarterbacks. That bodes well considering the Carolina defense ranks 26th in sacks per game.

Mike Evans (TB – WR): OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards
After battling it out with Los Angeles Rams shut-down cornerback Jalen Ramsey for much of last Monday night, Mike Evans should have an easier time breaking free from the combination of Chiefs cornerbacks Antonio Hamilton and Charvarius Ward. Evans has 51 catches of 20+ yards since 2018, which is tied for second among NFL wide receivers. In a game that Tampa Bay will likely have to throw a lot to keep up with Kansas City’s high-powered offense, look for Evans to be more involved all over the field and not just in the red zone.

Tom Brady (TB – QB): UNDER 287.5 Passing Yards
Are we starting to see the decline of Tom Brady? He has surpassed this projected total just twice in the last seven games. He now faces an eighth-ranked pass defense that allows just 221.6 passing yards per game. Brady has averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt in the first half this season, which is the worst among 27 qualified quarterbacks. There is the possibility of this being a shootout, but it would likely behoove the Buccaneers to lean on a ground game to keep Kansas City off the field as much as possible instead of airing it out with their 43-year old quarterback.

Jakobi Meyers (NE – WR): OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers had four straight games of at least 58 yards receiving before last week’s 38-yard clunker on three targets against the Texans. With N’Keal Harry back in the lineup, Meyers was moved to the slot more as opposed to lining up on the perimeter in his most successful games. However, that could actually bode well for Meyers in this matchup as he will avoid Patrick Peterson on the outside. Meyers’ 324 receiving yards since Week 8 are fourth-most among all wide receivers, so it would behoove offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to find a way to get him the ball more.

Cooper Kupp (LAR – WR): OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards
Rams head coach Sean McVay clearly felt he had a matchup with Cooper Kupp that he could exploit against Tampa Bay last Monday night, as he went for 145 yards on 13 targets. He now has a whopping 40 targets in his last three games, and his 27 receptions in that span are tied for the third-most in the league. Kupp was held to just 11 yards in a Week 6 loss to the 49ers but was rather unlucky considering he had nine targets in that game. With a similar amount of looks from Jared Goff in this one, he should have little difficulty totaling 61 or more yards.

Kyler Murray (ARI – QB): OVER 245.5 Passing Yards
This projection seems awfully low considering Kyler Murray has been under this projected total just once in the last four weeks, and that was when he threw for 245 yards against the Buffalo Bills. Murray did bang-up his shoulder a little bit in last Thursday’s loss to Seattle, but he has had three extra days to rest it and heal. With a spread of less than a field goal, oddsmakers believe this will be a close game. That bodes well for Murray, as his 13.4 yards per completion in the fourth quarter since Week 8 is the best of 26 qualified quarterbacks. Bettors should not fear this Patriots defense that is historically weaker than Belichick’s defenses in the past. They rank 15th in the league allowing 236.1 passing yards per game, so the dynamic Murray should find success.

Check out our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the week >>


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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