Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 10 (2020)
Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups.
Looking back on Week 9, my upside plays at the quarterback and running back positions fully cashed in on their underpriced upside. “Blue Chip” pick Josh Allen (QB2 overall, 36.0 FanDuel points) led the way, while Penny Stock play Drew Lock (QB4, 30.22) outperformed his price tag in a big way. At running back, Dalvin Cook (RB1, 38.2) smashed in a juicy matchup while James Robinson (RB3, 15.9) scampered his way to a top-3 RB finish. Unfortunately, I paid the price for my success at these positions with underperformance at wide receiver and tight end. Mid-Cap wideout Justin Jefferson (WR51, 7.9) was a massive letdown while Diontae Johnson (WR34, 11.1) and Stefon Diggs (WR18, 16.3) failed to win you any prize money in DFS. Additionally, Rob Gronkowski (TE46, 0.7) was a lineup-destroyer as the entire Buccaneers offense looked borderline unrecognizable against the Saints. Week 10, however, presents a DFS slate ripe with underpriced upside as five games currently sport implied totals over 50 points.
Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 10 DFS lineups.
Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 10.
Each position group is broken down as follows:
- Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
- Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
- Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
- *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players
Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 10 and beyond!
Blue Chip: Kyler Murray (ARI) vs. Buffalo ($8,800) – Fantasy football’s overall QB1 has averaged 33 FanDuel points per game over the last 4 weeks. This week, he finds himself in a smash spot matchup with the Bills that sports a league-high over/under of 56.5 points.
Mid-Cap: Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. Miami ($8,000) – The sensational rookie is averaging 306 passing yards and 2.42 touchdowns per game since taking over the starting quarterback job in Los Angeles.
Penny Stock: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) vs. Los Angeles Chargers ($6,800) – With a Week 9 rushing stat line of 7 carries for 35 yards, Tua offers underpriced upside against a Chargers defense giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Blue Chip: Aaron Jones (GB) vs. Jacksonville ($8,800) – There are 1,000,000 different reasons you should pay up for Aaron Jones this week, but I’ll make this quick. First and foremost, he’s fully healthy following the Packers’ “mini-bye”. Second, the Packers are favored by 13.5 points against the Jaguars. Third, Jacksonville has given up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Jones in your lineup is money in your pocket.
Mid-Cap: James Robinson (JAC) vs. Green Bay ($7,300) – Robinson is averaging 4.25 targets per game this season, so he should see plenty of looks in the passing game as the Jaguars try to keep pace with the Packers’ offense.
Penny Stock: Mike Davis (CAR) vs. Tampa Bay ($5,400) – In weeks where Christian McCaffrey is inactive, Davis has averaged over 6 receptions per game. McCaffrey is likely out for Week 10, so it would be criminal not to play Davis at this price.
Blue Chip: Davante Adams (GB) vs. Jacksonville ($9,500) – Adams is averaging an other-worldly TEN (10) catches in full games played this season. With Aaron Rodgers locking in on him on passing downs, Adams is worth every penny in a plus matchup.
Mid-Cap: Tyler Boyd (CIN) vs. Pittsburgh ($6,700) – Boyd has flown a bit under the radar as fantasy’s WR15 through 9 weeks. Expect him to put up numbers in a game where the Bengals will likely be playing from behind.
Penny Stock: John Brown (BUF) vs. Arizona ($5,600) – Coming off his season-high performance in targets (11), catches (8), and yards (99), Brown offers tantalizing upside as an inexpensive piece of this week’s Bills-Cardinals barnburner.
Blue Chip: Darren Waller (LV) vs. Denver ($7,000) – While his 5/22/1 Week 9 stat line is disappointing on paper, Waller saw 10 targets and an eyebrow-raising 43% target share. This week, Waller should see plenty of scoring opportunities as Vegas projects the Raiders to put up 27.5 points.
*Mid-Cap: Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. New York Giants ($5,800) – With Zach Ertz still on injured reserve, Goedert has blowup potential against the Giants, who gave up 6 catches and 85 yards to tight end Richard Rodgers in their last meeting. *Goedert is this week’s Cash Cow. Get him in your lineups!
Penny Stock: Gerald Everett (LAR) vs. Seattle ($4,500) – Despite Tyler Higbee’s Week 8 return to the Rams’ lineup, Everett still saw 9 targets against the Dolphins. At this price, he offers massive upside as Los Angeles will almost certainly be forced into a pass-heavy game script.
Ball Street’s Week 10 All-Upside Lineup
- QB – Kyler Murray, $8,800
- RB – Aaron Jones, $8,800
- RB – James Robinson, $7,300
- WR – Davante Adams, $9,500
- WR – Tyler Boyd, $6,700
- WR – John Brown, $5,600
- TE – Gerald Everett, $4,500
- FLEX – Mike Davis, $5,400
- DEF – Cincinnatti, $3,400
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.